Wallet analysis

2026-06-20T22:05:58+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

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0E 0x0e4f…a5a7 crypto 377 markets active 0h ago coverage 153d ⚠
UNRELIABLEdata unreliable crypto specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Wins small, loses big⚠ Covers last 152d onlyP/L from Polymarket (history capped)
✗ on-chain reconstruction ≠ official P&L (longshot/capped history)✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover! loses its big bets
Total PnL +$5,144 (+9%) realized +$5,139 · open +$5
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +10% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -8% what you keep after slip
Net edge-8%after slip
Net WR50%break-even
Win rate57%213W / 162L
Whale WR12%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$150per market
Trades / day19.4pace
Kalshi-fit99%portable
Net worth$305now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 153d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 99% −$330
other 1% −$44
sports 0% +$4
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +50%
net ROI/market (all)-0.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 3 -63.0% -66.6% 0% 0% -49.9%
≤30d 3 -63.0% -66.6% 0% 0% -49.9%
≤90d 3 -63.0% -66.6% 0% 0% -49.9%
all 375 +10.5% -0.0% 57% 50% -10.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover19.4 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -0.0% 50% -10.2%
10% -9.6% 43% -18.8%
15% -18.3% 29% -26.7%
20% -26.3% 18% -33.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 2% · top 2 5% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -47% too few recent
Fragile wins
12% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +10% · $-wt -1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 12% (≥$500) wins small, loses big bets
Persistence
early +17% → late +4% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
7.3 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$55 vs −$74 · ×0.74 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.97 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

153d coverage
Net worth$305
Realized+$5,139
Unrealized+$5
Win rate (resolved)57%
Wins / losses213 / 162
Whale WR (big bets)12%
Open positions3
Markets (closed)375 / 377
History coverage153d ⚠
Avg bet$150
Trades / day19.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit99%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 3 History 375 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will USA win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 3¢ 4¢ $100 $104 +$4 (+4%)
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 5¢ 6¢ $100 $103 +$3 (+3%)
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 2¢ 2¢ $100 $98 −$2 (-2%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 2 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 16, 7:15PM-7:30PM ET Jun 20 $0 −$3 -2230%
Starmer out by June 22, 2026? Jun 20 $51 −$16 -31%
Starmer out by June 26, 2026? Jun 20 $51 −$30 -58%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 27, 1:00PM-1:15PM ET Jan 27 $73 +$16 +22%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 27, 2:45PM-3:00PM ET Jan 27 $76 +$20 +26%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 27, 2:00PM-2:15PM ET Jan 27 $66 +$30 +46%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 27, 1:30PM-1:45PM ET Jan 27 $125 −$28 -22%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 27, 3:15PM-3:30PM ET Jan 27 $67 +$31 +47%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 27, 2:15PM-2:30PM ET Jan 27 $65 +$33 +50%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 27, 1:45PM-2:00PM ET Jan 27 $73 +$25 +34%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 27, 3:45PM-4:00PM ET Jan 27 $80 +$19 +23%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 27, 1:15PM-1:30PM ET Jan 27 $69 +$29 +42%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 27, 11:00AM-11:15AM ET Jan 27 $44 +$6 +15%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 27, 11:30AM-11:45AM ET Jan 27 $69 +$16 +23%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 27, 12:45PM-1:00PM ET Jan 27 $30 −$30 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 27, 12:30PM-12:45PM ET Jan 27 $74 +$23 +31%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 27, 12:15PM-12:30PM ET Jan 27 $114 +$34 +30%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 27, 10:15AM-10:30AM ET Jan 27 $82 +$20 +24%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 27, 10:00AM-10:15AM ET Jan 27 $156 +$42 +27%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 27, 10:30AM-10:45AM ET Jan 27 $222 −$20 -9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 27, 9:00AM-9:15AM ET Jan 27 $140 +$53 +38%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 27, 9:15AM-9:30AM ET Jan 27 $380 −$179 -47%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 27, 9:45AM-10:00AM ET Jan 27 $256 −$44 -17%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 27, 8:45AM-9:00AM ET Jan 27 $10 +$6 +59%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 27, 8:00AM-8:15AM ET Jan 27 $93 −$93 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 27, 8:15AM-8:30AM ET Jan 27 $123 +$74 +61%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 27, 7:00AM-7:15AM ET Jan 27 $105 −$52 -50%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 27, 7:15AM-7:30AM ET Jan 27 $224 −$109 -49%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 27, 7:30AM-7:45AM ET Jan 27 $123 +$75 +61%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 27, 6:15AM-6:30AM ET Jan 27 $141 +$54 +38%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 27, 6:45AM-7:00AM ET Jan 27 $80 −$16 -21%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 27, 6:00AM-6:15AM ET Jan 27 $53 −$53 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 27, 6:30AM-6:45AM ET Jan 27 $164 +$33 +20%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 27, 5:45AM-6:00AM ET Jan 27 $86 +$98 +114%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 27, 5:00AM-5:15AM ET Jan 27 $119 +$21 +17%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 27, 5:30AM-5:45AM ET Jan 27 $132 +$67 +51%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 27, 4:45AM-5:00AM ET Jan 27 $120 +$32 +27%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 27, 4:00AM-4:15AM ET Jan 27 $131 +$66 +50%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 27, 4:30AM-4:45AM ET Jan 27 $257 −$47 -18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 27, 4:15AM-4:30AM ET Jan 27 $221 −$18 -8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 27, 3:15AM-3:30AM ET Jan 27 $118 −$112 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 27, 3:00AM-3:15AM ET Jan 27 $33 −$2 -6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 27, 3:45AM-4:00AM ET Jan 27 $173 +$18 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 27, 2:30AM-2:45AM ET Jan 27 $137 −$123 -90%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 27, 2:15AM-2:30AM ET Jan 27 $163 −$139 -85%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 27, 2:45AM-3:00AM ET Jan 27 $141 +$56 +40%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 27, 2:00AM-2:15AM ET Jan 27 $154 +$43 +28%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 27, 1:00AM-1:15AM ET Jan 27 $292 −$9 -3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 27, 1:45AM-2:00AM ET Jan 27 $155 −$65 -42%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 27, 1:15AM-1:30AM ET Jan 27 $146 −$3 -2%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Starmer out by June 22, 2026? SELL No 32¢ $35 10m
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 5¢ $103 1h
Starmer out by June 22, 2026? BUY No 44¢ $51 1h
Starmer out by June 26, 2026? SELL No 13¢ $21 1h
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 2¢ $103 1h
Will USA win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 3¢ $103 1h
Starmer out by June 26, 2026? BUY No 30¢ $51 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 27, 3:45PM-4:00PM ET BUY Up 87¢ $20 144d
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 27, 3:45PM-4:00PM ET BUY Up 83¢ $22 144d
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 27, 3:45PM-4:00PM ET BUY Up 80¢ $12 144d
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 27, 3:45PM-4:00PM ET BUY Up 76¢ $7 144d
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 27, 3:45PM-4:00PM ET BUY Up 75¢ $20 144d
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 27, 3:15PM-3:30PM ET BUY Up 71¢ $8 144d
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 27, 3:15PM-3:30PM ET BUY Up 74¢ $20 144d
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 27, 3:15PM-3:30PM ET BUY Up 74¢ $20 144d
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 27, 3:15PM-3:30PM ET BUY Up 76¢ $13 144d
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 27, 3:15PM-3:30PM ET BUY Up 38¢ $7 144d
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 27, 2:45PM-3:00PM ET BUY Down 72¢ $4 144d
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 27, 2:45PM-3:00PM ET BUY Down 80¢ $4 144d
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 27, 2:45PM-3:00PM ET BUY Down 80¢ $21 144d
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 27, 2:45PM-3:00PM ET BUY Down 80¢ $21 144d
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 27, 2:45PM-3:00PM ET BUY Down 80¢ $22 144d
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 27, 2:45PM-3:00PM ET BUY Down 62¢ $3 144d
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 27, 2:15PM-2:30PM ET BUY Up 80¢ $8 144d
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 27, 2:15PM-2:30PM ET BUY Up 82¢ $6 144d
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 27, 2:15PM-2:30PM ET BUY Up 59¢ $16 144d
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 27, 2:15PM-2:30PM ET BUY Up 64¢ $17 144d
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 27, 2:15PM-2:30PM ET BUY Up 64¢ $17 144d
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 27, 2:00PM-2:15PM ET BUY Down 78¢ $4 144d
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 27, 2:00PM-2:15PM ET BUY Down 72¢ $3 144d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $304.90 · official $303.34 (match) · 3500 history records