Wallet analysis

2026-06-25T14:19:01+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
0E 0x0e4f…81a1 crypto 429 markets active 0h ago coverage 514d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL +$237 (+0%) realized +$239 · open −$2
Gross ROI / mkt -1% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -14% what you keep after slip
Net edge-14%after slip
Net WR1%break-even
Win rate92%382W / 35L
Whale WR82%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$562per market
Trades / day1.8pace
Fees−$266est.
Kalshi-fit73%portable
Net worth$2,144now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$410
7 days−$510
14 days−$514
30 days−$517
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 43% −$546
crypto 36% +$90
sports 16% +$97
politics 2% −$33
tech 2% +$5
world 2% −$7
weather 0% +$1
finance 0% +$1
economics 0% +$1
culture 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +1%
net ROI/market (all)-10.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 5 -1.6% -10.9% 20% 0% -11.0%
≤30d 67 -0.1% -9.6% 87% 0% -10.7%
≤90d 174 -2.4% -11.7% 83% 1% -10.1%
all 417 -0.7% -10.2% 92% 1% -9.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.8 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -10.2% 1% -9.7%
10% -18.8% 0% -18.3%
15% -26.6% 0% -26.2%
20% -33.8% 0% -33.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 54% · top 2 61% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
99% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -1% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 82% (≥$650) strong on big bets
Persistence
early +0% → late -2% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.6 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$33 · ×0.05 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.59 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

514d coverage
Net worth$2,144
Realized+$239
Unrealized−$2
Win rate (resolved)92%
Wins / losses382 / 35
Whale WR (big bets)82%
Est. fees paid−$266
Open positions12
Markets (closed)417 / 429
History coverage514d
Avg bet$562
Trades / day1.8
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit73%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 12 History 417 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 92¢ 92¢ $1,993 $1,992 −$1 (-0%)
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $20 in June? No 100¢ 100¢ $25 $25 +$0 (+0%)
Will Saudi Aramco be the largest company in the world by market cap on June 30? No 100¢ 100¢ $25 $25 +$0 (+0%)
Will Solana dip to $10 in June? No 100¢ 100¢ $25 $25 +$0 (+0%)
Will Databricks’ market cap be between $100B and $125B at market close on IPO day? No 100¢ 100¢ $15 $15 +$0 (+0%)
Will Waymo have the highest IPO Market Cap 2026? No 100¢ 100¢ $15 $15 +$0 (+0%)
Will Perplexity have the highest private market valuation on June 30? No 100¢ 100¢ $12 $12 −$0 (-0%)
James Collier announced as next James Bond? No 100¢ 100¢ $11 $11 +$0 (+0%)
Will Comcast close Warner Bros acquisition? No 100¢ 100¢ $8 $8 −$0 (-0%)
Will 11 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? No 100¢ 100¢ $7 $7 −$0 (-0%)
Will Wuthering Heights be the top grossing movie of 2026? No 99¢ 100¢ $5 $5 +$0 (+0%)
Will Strava’s market cap be between $3B and $4B at market close on IPO day? Yes 22¢ 18¢ $5 $4 −$1 (-16%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 1 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 24 $26,081 −$410 -2%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 38°C on June 20? Jun 20 $10 $0 +0%
Will Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire end in a draw? Jun 20 $1,540 −$11 -1%
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 19 $2,560 −$87 -3%
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 19 $107 −$3 -3%
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the June 2026 me Jun 17 $15 $0 +0%
Will Portugal vs. DR Congo end in a draw? Jun 17 $42 −$1 -3%
Will Lionel Messi play in the World Cup? Jun 17 $4 $0 +3%
Will the highest temperature in London be 31°C on June 16? Jun 16 $20 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 24°C on June 16? Jun 16 $15 $0 +0%
Bank of Japan decreases interest rates after the June 2026 meeting? Jun 16 $20 $0 +0%
Will SpaceX's market cap be between $500B and $600B at market close on Jun 12 $15 $0 +0%
Will Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina end in a draw? Jun 12 $730 −$6 -1%
Will the price of Solana be above $20 on June 10? Jun 11 $15 $0 +0%
Will the price of Solana be between $110 and $120 on June 10? Jun 11 $85 $0 +0%
Will the price of Solana be less than $30 on June 10? Jun 11 $225 $0 +0%
Will the price of Solana be less than $20 on June 11? Jun 11 $330 $0 +0%
Will the price of Solana be above $30 on June 11? Jun 11 $400 $0 +0%
Will the price of Solana be above $30 on June 10? Jun 11 $550 +$1 +0%
Will the price of Solana be between $20 and $30 on June 11? Jun 11 $680 +$1 +0%
Will the price of Solana be above $20 on June 11? Jun 11 $750 +$1 +0%
Will the price of Solana be less than $40 on June 7? Jun 09 $40 $0 +0%
Will the price of Solana be between $110 and $120 on June 9? Jun 09 $45 $0 +0%
Will the price of Solana be less than $30 on June 9? Jun 09 $340 $0 +0%
Will Netflix (NFLX) finish week of June 1 above $120? Jun 07 $20 $0 +0%
Will Netflix (NFLX) finish week of June 1 above $110? Jun 07 $21 $0 +0%
Will the price of Solana be greater than $130 on June 5? Jun 07 $24 $0 +0%
Will Netflix (NFLX) finish week of June 1 above $130? Jun 07 $24 $0 +0%
Will Netflix (NFLX) finish week of June 1 above $50? Jun 07 $29 $0 +0%
Will Netflix (NFLX) finish week of June 1 above $30? Jun 07 $32 $0 +0%
Will Netflix (NFLX) finish week of June 1 above $40? Jun 07 $33 $0 +0%
Will Netflix (NFLX) finish week of June 1 above $60? Jun 07 $34 $0 +0%
Will Netflix (NFLX) finish week of June 1 above $100? Jun 07 $34 $0 +0%
Will the price of Solana be greater than $130 on June 6? Jun 07 $55 $0 +0%
Will the price of Solana be less than $40 on June 6? Jun 07 $110 $0 +0%
Will Netflix (NFLX) close at <$40 on the final day of trading of the w Jun 07 $118 $0 +0%
Will the price of XRP be above $0.80 on June 5? Jun 07 $130 $0 +0%
Will the price of Solana be less than $40 on June 5? Jun 07 $210 $0 +0%
Will Netflix (NFLX) finish week of June 1 above $140? Jun 07 $259 $0 +0%
Will the price of XRP be above $0.80 on June 4? Jun 05 $4 $0 +0%
Will Donald Trump publicly insult Marjorie Taylor Greene by June 30, 2 Jun 04 $10 $0 +0%
Will Donald Trump publicly insult Tucker Carlson by June 30, 2026? Jun 04 $30 $0 +0%
Will Donald Trump publicly insult Candace Owens by June 30, 2026? Jun 04 $30 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in London be 21°C on June 2? Jun 03 $11 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 21°C on June 3? Jun 03 $12 $0 +0%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May? Jun 03 $15 $0 +0%
Will the price of XRP be above $0.80 on June 3? Jun 03 $80 $0 +0%
Will Steve Hilton win the California Governor Election in 2026? Jun 02 $25 −$2 -9%
Will the price of Solana be above $140 on June 1? Jun 02 $5 $0 +0%
T20 Asian Games, Qualifier: Hong Kong, China vs Bahrain Jun 02 $10 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 92¢ $370 4m
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 92¢ $33 7m
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 92¢ $78 9m
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 92¢ $84 9m
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 92¢ $2,271 1h
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 92¢ $292 1h
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes $1,230 18h
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes $7 18h
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes $44 18h
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes $33 18h
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes $91 18h
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes $48 18h
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes $19 18h
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes $3 18h
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes $50 18h
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes $190 18h
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes $61 18h
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes $16 18h
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes $2 18h
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $1,843 18h
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes $295 20h
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes $344 20h
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $16 20h
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $163 20h
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $420 20h
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes $42 20h
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes $5 20h
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes $20 20h
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes $18 20h
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes $0 20h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $2,144.11 · official $2,144.08 (match) · 1439 history records