Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T04:40:11+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
0E 0x0e4f…2645 crypto 293 markets active 2h ago coverage 60d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFresh edge⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL +$401 (+23%) realized +$401 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -2% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -18% what you keep after slip
Net edge-18%after slip
Net WR34%break-even
Win rate35%104W / 189L
Drawdown65%max
Avg bet$6per market
Trades / day10.9pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$19
7 days−$15
14 days+$332
30 days+$316
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 98% +$389
sports 2% −$23
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +34%
net ROI/market (all)-10.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 94 -3.5% -12.7% 38% 37% -14.7%
≤30d 137 +8.4% -1.9% 39% 36% +2.4%
≤90d 293 -1.5% -10.9% 35% 34% -3.7%
all 293 -1.5% -10.9% 35% 34% -3.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover10.9 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -10.9% 34% -3.7%
10% -19.4% 33% -13.0%
15% -27.2% 32% -21.4%
20% -34.4% 29% -29.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 29% · top 2 33% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +22% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
4% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -2% · $-wt +22% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -10% → late +7% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.1 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$13 vs −$5 · ×2.5 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.38 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

60d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$401
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)35%
Wins / losses104 / 189
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions0
Markets (closed)293 / 293
History coverage60d
Avg bet$6
Trades / day10.9
Drawdown65%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 293 Trades
no open positions (166 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:00PM-11:05PM ET Jun 15 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:55PM-11:00PM ET Jun 15 $2 +$1 +58%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:40PM-10:45PM ET Jun 15 $2 $0 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:25PM-10:30PM ET Jun 15 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:20PM-10:25PM ET Jun 15 $2 +$2 +84%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:10PM-10:15PM ET Jun 15 $2 −$2 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:05PM-10:10PM ET Jun 15 $4 −$4 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:40AM-2:45AM ET Jun 14 $2 +$3 +166%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 10:55PM-11:00PM ET Jun 14 $3 −$3 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 10:45PM-10:50PM ET Jun 14 $2 +$4 +168%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 10:40PM-10:45PM ET Jun 14 $2 −$2 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 10:30PM-10:35PM ET Jun 14 $2 −$2 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 7:50AM-7:55AM ET Jun 13 $2 −$2 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 7:35AM-7:40AM ET Jun 13 $4 +$3 +62%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 7:30AM-7:35AM ET Jun 13 $2 −$2 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 7:25AM-7:30AM ET Jun 13 $2 −$2 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 7:20AM-7:25AM ET Jun 13 $2 −$2 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 7:15AM-7:20AM ET Jun 13 $2 −$2 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 7:10AM-7:15AM ET Jun 13 $2 +$1 +36%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 7:05AM-7:10AM ET Jun 13 $4 −$4 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 6:55AM-7:00AM ET Jun 13 $2 −$2 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 6:50AM-6:55AM ET Jun 13 $2 +$7 +338%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 6:40AM-6:45AM ET Jun 13 $2 +$18 +836%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 6:35AM-6:40AM ET Jun 13 $3 −$3 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 6:15AM-6:20AM ET Jun 13 $2 +$4 +178%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 4:50AM-4:55AM ET Jun 13 $2 −$2 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 4:25AM-4:30AM ET Jun 13 $4 −$4 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 4:10AM-4:15AM ET Jun 13 $18 −$17 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 7:35AM-7:40AM ET Jun 12 $2 −$2 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 1:25AM-1:30AM ET Jun 12 $4 −$4 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 1:20AM-1:25AM ET Jun 12 $4 +$2 +53%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 1:15AM-1:20AM ET Jun 12 $2 +$1 +54%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 9:45PM-9:50PM ET Jun 12 $2 −$2 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 9:40PM-9:45PM ET Jun 12 $4 +$1 +20%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 9:35PM-9:40PM ET Jun 12 $2 +$3 +164%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 9:10PM-9:15PM ET Jun 12 $2 −$2 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 8:35PM-8:40PM ET Jun 12 $2 −$2 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 8:30PM-8:35PM ET Jun 12 $2 +$1 +55%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 7:00PM-7:05PM ET Jun 11 $2 −$2 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 6:50PM-6:55PM ET Jun 11 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 6:45PM-6:50PM ET Jun 11 $2 +$8 +355%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 6:40PM-6:45PM ET Jun 11 $2 −$2 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 6:35PM-6:40PM ET Jun 11 $2 +$3 +147%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 6:30PM-6:35PM ET Jun 11 $4 +$6 +137%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 6:20PM-6:25PM ET Jun 11 $2 −$2 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 6:10PM-6:15PM ET Jun 11 $2 −$2 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 6:05PM-6:10PM ET Jun 11 $2 −$2 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 6:00PM-6:05PM ET Jun 11 $4 −$4 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 5:55PM-6:00PM ET Jun 11 $2 +$4 +167%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 5:50PM-5:55PM ET Jun 11 $2 −$2 -94%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:00PM-11:05PM ET BUY Down 24¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:00PM-11:05PM ET BUY Down 62¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:55PM-11:00PM ET SELL Down 99¢ $3 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:55PM-11:00PM ET BUY Down 61¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:40PM-10:45PM ET SELL Down 81¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:40PM-10:45PM ET BUY Down 76¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:25PM-10:30PM ET BUY Up 16¢ $2 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:20PM-10:25PM ET SELL Up 99¢ $4 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:20PM-10:25PM ET BUY Up 52¢ $2 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:10PM-10:15PM ET BUY Down 18¢ $2 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:05PM-10:10PM ET BUY Down 2¢ $2 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:05PM-10:10PM ET BUY Down 9¢ $2 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:40AM-2:45AM ET SELL Down 74¢ $6 21h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:40AM-2:45AM ET BUY Down 26¢ $2 21h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 10:55PM-11:00PM ET BUY Down 10¢ $1 25h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 10:55PM-11:00PM ET BUY Down 21¢ $2 25h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 10:45PM-10:50PM ET SELL Up 27¢ $6 25h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 10:45PM-10:50PM ET BUY Up 9¢ $2 25h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 10:40PM-10:45PM ET BUY Up 11¢ $2 25h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 10:30PM-10:35PM ET BUY Down 20¢ $2 26h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 7:50AM-7:55AM ET BUY Down 51¢ $2 40h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 7:35AM-7:40AM ET SELL Down 99¢ $7 40h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 7:35AM-7:40AM ET BUY Down 59¢ $2 41h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 7:35AM-7:40AM ET BUY Down 60¢ $2 41h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 7:30AM-7:35AM ET BUY Up 16¢ $2 41h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 7:25AM-7:30AM ET BUY Up 33¢ $2 41h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 7:20AM-7:25AM ET BUY Up 30¢ $2 41h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 7:15AM-7:20AM ET BUY Down 25¢ $2 41h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 7:10AM-7:15AM ET SELL Up 33¢ $3 41h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 7:10AM-7:15AM ET BUY Up 22¢ $2 41h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 767 history records