Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T09:58:08+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
0E 0x0e4d…bec1 crypto 52 markets active 1d ago coverage 2d
UNRELIABLEdata unreliable crypto specialist⚠ High turnover
✗ only 2d of captured history — unreliable✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL −$9 (-4%) realized −$9 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -3% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -26% what you keep after slip
Net edge-26%after slip
Net WR52%break-even
Win rate67%35W / 17L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$5per market
Trades / day30.8pace
Kalshi-fit81%portable
Net worth$1now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 2d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 85% −$14
other 15% −$2
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +52%
net ROI/market (all)-12.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 52 -3.3% -12.5% 67% 52% -15.4%
≤30d 52 -3.3% -12.5% 67% 52% -15.4%
≤90d 52 -3.3% -12.5% 67% 52% -15.4%
all 52 -3.3% -12.5% 67% 52% -15.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover30.8 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -12.5% 52% -15.4%
10% ← realistic here -20.9% 44% -23.5%
15% -28.5% 35% -30.9%
20% -35.5% 19% -37.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 18% · top 2 36% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -6% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
23% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -3% · $-wt -6% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -5% → late -2% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$2 vs −$4 · ×0.38 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.78 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

2d coverage
Net worth$1
Realized−$9
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)67%
Wins / losses35 / 17
Open positions0
Markets (closed)52 / 52
History coverage2d
Avg bet$5
Trades / day30.8
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit81%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 52 Trades
no open positions (1 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Hyperliquid Up or Down - June 13, 11:30PM-11:35PM ET Jun 14 $2 −$2 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 13, 11:35PM-11:40PM ET Jun 14 $1 $0 +3%
XRP Up or Down - June 13, 11:35PM-11:40PM ET Jun 14 $1 −$1 -96%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 13, 11:20PM-11:25PM ET Jun 14 $1 +$1 +96%
XRP Up or Down - June 13, 11:00PM-11:15PM ET Jun 14 $1 $0 +43%
XRP Up or Down - June 13, 9:45PM-9:50PM ET Jun 14 $1 +$1 +49%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 8:15AM-8:30AM ET Jun 14 $1 $0 +24%
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 13, 8:15AM-8:20AM ET Jun 13 $1 $0 +15%
Hyperliquid Up or Down - June 13, 8:05AM-8:10AM ET Jun 13 $2 −$1 -50%
XRP Up or Down - June 13, 8:00AM-8:05AM ET Jun 13 $2 −$1 -43%
XRP Up or Down - June 13, 7:45AM-7:50AM ET Jun 13 $1 +$1 +61%
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 13, 7:35AM-7:40AM ET Jun 13 $1 $0 +26%
Hyperliquid Up or Down - June 13, 7:30AM-7:35AM ET Jun 13 $3 −$3 -100%
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 13, 7:20AM-7:25AM ET Jun 13 $1 $0 +27%
BNB Up or Down - June 13, 7:20AM-7:25AM ET Jun 13 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 7:00AM-7:15AM ET Jun 13 $2 $0 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 7:10AM-7:15AM ET Jun 13 $3 $0 -0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 7:00AM-7:05AM ET Jun 13 $2 +$2 +63%
Hyperliquid Up or Down - June 13, 6:50AM-6:55AM ET Jun 13 $1 $0 +43%
XRP Up or Down - June 13, 6:50AM-6:55AM ET Jun 13 $1 +$1 +61%
Hyperliquid Up or Down - June 13, 6:45AM-6:50AM ET Jun 13 $2 −$2 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 13, 6:30AM-6:45AM ET Jun 13 $1 $0 +15%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 6:40AM-6:45AM ET Jun 13 $1 −$1 -100%
BNB Up or Down - June 13, 6:35AM-6:40AM ET Jun 13 $1 $0 +43%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 6:30AM-6:35AM ET Jun 13 $1 $0 +6%
XRP Up or Down - June 13, 6:30AM-6:35AM ET Jun 13 $1 +$1 +67%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 6:20AM-6:25AM ET Jun 13 $1 $0 +20%
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 13, 6:20AM-6:25AM ET Jun 13 $2 −$2 -100%
Solana Up or Down - June 13, 6:00AM-6:15AM ET Jun 13 $5 $0 +0%
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 13, 6:00AM-6:05AM ET Jun 13 $4 $0 +0%
Solana Up or Down - June 13, 6:00AM-6:05AM ET Jun 13 $8 −$8 -100%
BNB Up or Down - June 13, 5:50AM-5:55AM ET Jun 13 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 5:45AM-5:50AM ET Jun 13 $9 +$1 +10%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 13, 5:30AM-5:45AM ET Jun 13 $9 +$1 +17%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 5:30AM-5:35AM ET Jun 13 $6 +$5 +82%
Solana Up or Down - June 12, 5:00AM-5:05AM ET Jun 12 $2 −$2 -100%
BNB Up or Down - June 12, 4:50AM-4:55AM ET Jun 12 $2 $0 +1%
Solana Up or Down - June 12, 4:45AM-4:50AM ET Jun 12 $9 −$9 -100%
XRP Up or Down - June 12, 4:30AM-4:45AM ET Jun 12 $37 −$35 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 4:30AM-4:35AM ET Jun 12 $28 +$11 +39%
BNB Up or Down - June 12, 4:20AM-4:25AM ET Jun 12 $19 +$11 +56%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 4:00AM-4:15AM ET Jun 12 $19 $0 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 4:00AM-4:05AM ET Jun 12 $14 +$7 +49%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 3:50AM-3:55AM ET Jun 12 $11 +$4 +36%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 3:30AM-3:45AM ET Jun 12 $9 +$3 +32%
XRP Up or Down - June 12, 3:30AM-3:35AM ET Jun 12 $7 +$2 +27%
Solana Up or Down - June 12, 3:20AM-3:25AM ET Jun 12 $4 +$4 +89%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 2:40AM-2:45AM ET Jun 12 $1 +$1 +108%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 2:40AM-2:45AM ET Jun 12 $2 +$1 +43%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 2:30AM-2:35AM ET Jun 12 $3 −$3 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Ethereum Up or Down - June 13, 11:35PM-11:40PM ET BUY Down 97¢ $1 30h
XRP Up or Down - June 13, 11:35PM-11:40PM ET BUY Up 43¢ $1 30h
Hyperliquid Up or Down - June 13, 11:30PM-11:35PM ET BUY Down 86¢ $2 30h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 13, 11:20PM-11:25PM ET BUY Up 49¢ $1 30h
XRP Up or Down - June 13, 11:00PM-11:15PM ET BUY Down 68¢ $1 30h
XRP Up or Down - June 13, 9:45PM-9:50PM ET BUY Up 65¢ $1 32h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 8:15AM-8:30AM ET BUY Up 79¢ $1 45h
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 13, 8:15AM-8:20AM ET BUY Up 86¢ $1 45h
Hyperliquid Up or Down - June 13, 8:05AM-8:10AM ET BUY Up 99¢ $1 45h
Hyperliquid Up or Down - June 13, 8:05AM-8:10AM ET BUY Down 91¢ $1 45h
XRP Up or Down - June 13, 8:00AM-8:05AM ET BUY Up 6¢ $1 45h
XRP Up or Down - June 13, 8:00AM-8:05AM ET BUY Down 84¢ $1 45h
XRP Up or Down - June 13, 7:45AM-7:50AM ET BUY Up 60¢ $1 46h
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 13, 7:35AM-7:40AM ET BUY Up 78¢ $1 46h
Hyperliquid Up or Down - June 13, 7:30AM-7:35AM ET BUY Down 81¢ $3 46h
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 13, 7:20AM-7:25AM ET BUY Down 77¢ $1 46h
BNB Up or Down - June 13, 7:20AM-7:25AM ET BUY Down 78¢ $2 46h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 7:10AM-7:15AM ET BUY Down 75¢ $2 46h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 7:10AM-7:15AM ET BUY Up 39¢ $1 46h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 7:00AM-7:15AM ET BUY Up 96¢ $2 46h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 7:00AM-7:05AM ET BUY Up 53¢ $1 46h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 7:00AM-7:05AM ET BUY Up 65¢ $1 46h
Hyperliquid Up or Down - June 13, 6:50AM-6:55AM ET BUY Down 68¢ $1 47h
XRP Up or Down - June 13, 6:50AM-6:55AM ET BUY Down 60¢ $1 47h
Hyperliquid Up or Down - June 13, 6:45AM-6:50AM ET BUY Down 12¢ $2 47h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 13, 6:30AM-6:45AM ET BUY Up 86¢ $1 47h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 6:40AM-6:45AM ET BUY Down 86¢ $1 47h
BNB Up or Down - June 13, 6:35AM-6:40AM ET BUY Up 68¢ $1 47h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 6:30AM-6:35AM ET BUY Up 93¢ $1 47h
XRP Up or Down - June 13, 6:30AM-6:35AM ET BUY Up 58¢ $1 47h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $1.03 · official $1.03 (match) · 107 history records