Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T12:06:41+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.5
score
0E 0x0e4c…dbab other 9 markets active 12h ago coverage 228d
RISKYcopy with care ⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$2,019 (+84%) realized +$2,019 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -2% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -11% what you keep after slip
Net edge-11%after slip
Net WR44%break-even
Win rate44%4W / 5L
Drawdown29%max
Avg bet$268per market
Trades / day0.1pace
Kalshi-fit44%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 228d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
other 92% +$2,100
crypto 8% −$108
politics 0% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +44%
net ROI/market (all)-11.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 5 +52.1% +37.6% 60% 60% +76.6%
≤30d 5 +52.1% +37.6% 60% 60% +76.6%
≤90d 5 +52.1% +37.6% 60% 60% +76.6%
all 9 -2.0% -11.4% 44% 44% +69.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.1 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -11.4% 44% +69.9%
10% -19.9% 33% +53.6%
15% -27.6% 33% +38.8%
20% -34.7% 33% +25.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 65% · top 2 87% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +95% too few recent
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -2% · $-wt +86% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
2.7 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$668 vs −$136 · ×4.9 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×3.92 per $1 lost it wins $3.92
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

228d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$2,019
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)44%
Wins / losses4 / 5
Open positions0
Markets (closed)9 / 9
History coverage228d
Avg bet$268
Trades / day0.1
Drawdown29%
Kalshi-fit44%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 9 Trades
no open positions (5 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-17? Jun 18 $664 +$1,743 +262%
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $565 −$550 -97%
Exact Score: Austria 0 - 1 Jordan? Jun 17 $21 −$20 -97%
Argentina to win the second half? Jun 17 $669 +$594 +89%
Argentina leading at halftime? Jun 17 $305 +$333 +109%
Bitcoin Up or Down - November 1, 4PM ET Nov 01 $166 −$102 -61%
Ethereum Up or Down - November 1, 4PM ET Nov 01 $10 +$2 +21%
Ethereum Up or Down - November 1, 3PM ET Nov 01 $11 −$9 -79%
Will the Government shutdown end November 8-11? Nov 01 $1 −$1 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 27¢ $664 12h
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 7¢ $360 15h
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 18¢ $205 16h
Exact Score: Austria 0 - 1 Jordan? BUY Yes 4¢ $21 32h
Argentina to win the second half? SELL Yes 100¢ $1,263 33h
Argentina to win the second half? BUY Yes 85¢ $20 33h
Argentina to win the second half? BUY Yes 52¢ $304 33h
Argentina to win the second half? BUY Yes 51¢ $304 33h
Argentina to win the second half? BUY Yes 50¢ $2 34h
Argentina to win the second half? BUY Yes 50¢ $4 34h
Argentina to win the second half? BUY Yes 50¢ $5 34h
Argentina to win the second half? BUY Yes 50¢ $29 34h
Argentina to win the second half? BUY Yes 50¢ $1 34h
Argentina leading at halftime? SELL Yes 100¢ $638 34h
Argentina leading at halftime? BUY Yes 47¢ $305 36h
Bitcoin Up or Down - November 1, 4PM ET BUY Down 18¢ $14 228d
Bitcoin Up or Down - November 1, 4PM ET BUY Down 24¢ $60 228d
Bitcoin Up or Down - November 1, 4PM ET SELL Down 26¢ $54 228d
Bitcoin Up or Down - November 1, 4PM ET BUY Down 38¢ $20 228d
Bitcoin Up or Down - November 1, 4PM ET BUY Down 39¢ $62 228d
Bitcoin Up or Down - November 1, 4PM ET SELL Up 59¢ $10 228d
Bitcoin Up or Down - November 1, 4PM ET BUY Up 58¢ $10 228d
Ethereum Up or Down - November 1, 4PM ET SELL Up 57¢ $12 228d
Ethereum Up or Down - November 1, 4PM ET BUY Up 47¢ $10 228d
Ethereum Up or Down - November 1, 3PM ET BUY Up 1¢ $4 228d
Ethereum Up or Down - November 1, 3PM ET BUY Up 12¢ $4 228d
Ethereum Up or Down - November 1, 3PM ET SELL Up 20¢ $1 228d
Ethereum Up or Down - November 1, 3PM ET BUY Up 25¢ $2 228d
Ethereum Up or Down - November 1, 3PM ET SELL Down 53¢ $1 228d
Ethereum Up or Down - November 1, 3PM ET SELL Down 26¢ $0 228d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 33 history records