Wallet analysis

2026-06-29T23:04:55+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
0E 0x0e4b…db7e finance 4 markets active 1h ago coverage 208d
RISKYcopy with care finance specialist⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$6 (+4%) realized −$4 · open +$10
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -38% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -44% what you keep after slip
Net edge-44%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate0%0W / 2L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$40per market
Trades / day0.1pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$111now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 208d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
finance 80% +$9
tech 20% −$7
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-43.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 1 -1.7% -11.0% 0% 0% -11.0%
≤30d 1 -1.7% -11.0% 0% 0% -11.0%
≤90d 1 -1.7% -11.0% 0% 0% -11.0%
all 2 -37.7% -43.6% 0% 0% -29.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.1 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -43.6% 0% -29.0%
10% -49.0% 0% -35.8%
15% -53.9% 0% -42.0%
20% -58.5% 0% -47.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top —% · top 2 —% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -2% too few recent
Fragile wins
—% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -38% · $-wt -22% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
3.5 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
— vs −$4 no data
Profit factor
×0.0 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

208d coverage
Net worth$111
Realized−$4
Unrealized+$10
Win rate (resolved)0%
Wins / losses0 / 2
Open positions2
Markets (closed)2 / 4
History coverage208d
Avg bet$40
Trades / day0.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 2 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the Ornn H100 Index be less than $2.00 on June 30, 2026? No 94¢ 92¢ $61 $60 −$1 (-2%)
Will the Ornn H100 Index be between $2.30 and $2.60 on June 30, 2026? Yes 63¢ 80¢ $40 $51 +$11 (+27%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 1 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the Ornn H100 Index be between $2.00 and $2.30 on June 30, 2026? Jun 26 $26 $0 -2%
Will d4vd be the #1 searched person on Google this year? Dec 04 $32 −$7 -22%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the Ornn H100 Index be between $2.30 and $2.60 on June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 83¢ $25 1h
Will the Ornn H100 Index be between $2.00 and $2.30 on June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 30¢ $25 3d
Will the Ornn H100 Index be between $2.00 and $2.30 on June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 25¢ $5 4d
Will the Ornn H100 Index be less than $2.00 on June 30, 2026? BUY No 94¢ $40 4d
Will the Ornn H100 Index be between $2.30 and $2.60 on June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 45¢ $15 4d
Will the Ornn H100 Index be less than $2.00 on June 30, 2026? BUY No 93¢ $10 4d
Will the Ornn H100 Index be less than $2.00 on June 30, 2026? BUY No 92¢ $11 4d
Will the Ornn H100 Index be between $2.00 and $2.30 on June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 31¢ $21 4d
Will d4vd be the #1 searched person on Google this year? BUY No 2¢ $10 207d
Will d4vd be the #1 searched person on Google this year? SELL No 2¢ $12 207d
Will d4vd be the #1 searched person on Google this year? BUY No 1¢ $10 207d
Will d4vd be the #1 searched person on Google this year? SELL No 2¢ $0 207d
Will d4vd be the #1 searched person on Google this year? SELL No 2¢ $5 207d
Will d4vd be the #1 searched person on Google this year? BUY No 2¢ $5 207d
Will d4vd be the #1 searched person on Google this year? SELL No 2¢ $2 207d
Will d4vd be the #1 searched person on Google this year? SELL No 2¢ $2 207d
Will d4vd be the #1 searched person on Google this year? SELL No 2¢ $3 207d
Will d4vd be the #1 searched person on Google this year? BUY No 2¢ $0 207d
Will d4vd be the #1 searched person on Google this year? BUY No 2¢ $3 207d
Will d4vd be the #1 searched person on Google this year? BUY No 2¢ $2 207d
Will d4vd be the #1 searched person on Google this year? BUY No 2¢ $2 207d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $110.70 · official $110.70 (match) · 21 history records