Wallet analysis

2026-06-26T21:32:25+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.0
score
0E 0x0e45…3060 other 93 markets active 2h ago coverage 249d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$153 (+7%) realized +$148 · open +$5
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -26% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -33% what you keep after slip
Net edge-33%after slip
Net WR35%break-even
Win rate38%34W / 55L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$24per market
Trades / day0.5pace
Fees−$4est.
Kalshi-fit39%portable
Net worth$57now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$4
7 days+$132
14 days+$199
30 days+$202
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 76% +$253
sports 18% −$132
crypto 3% +$28
politics 2% +$9
world 0% −$10
economics 1% −$2
finance 0% $0
tech 0% −$3
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +35%
net ROI/market (all)-32.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 19 -10.9% -19.4% 42% 42% +3.2%
≤30d 28 -22.3% -29.7% 39% 39% +4.4%
≤90d 28 -22.3% -29.7% 39% 39% +4.4%
all 89 -25.7% -32.8% 38% 35% -0.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.5 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -32.8% 35% -0.8%
10% -39.2% 31% -10.3%
15% -45.1% 29% -19.0%
20% -50.5% 26% -26.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 22% · top 2 32% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +15% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
9% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -26% · $-wt +7% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -29% → late -23% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$23 vs −$11 · ×1.97 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.22 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

249d coverage
Net worth$57
Realized+$148
Unrealized+$5
Win rate (resolved)38%
Wins / losses34 / 55
Est. fees paid−$4
Open positions4
Markets (closed)89 / 93
History coverage249d
Avg bet$24
Trades / day0.5
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit39%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 4 History 89 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Uruguay vs. Spain: O/U 2.5 Over 40¢ 46¢ $25 $28 +$3 (+14%)
Uruguay vs. Spain: Both Teams to Score Yes 44¢ 46¢ $25 $26 +$1 (+6%)
Will the US confirm that aliens exist by September 30? Yes 5¢ 5¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+5%)
Will the US confirm that aliens exist by June 30? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-38%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 39 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will United States win on 2026-06-25? Jun 26 $20 −$12 -62%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-25? Jun 26 $25 −$9 -37%
Will Ecuador vs. Germany end in a draw? Jun 25 $5 −$5 -98%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-24? Jun 25 $25 +$19 +73%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-24? Jun 25 $25 +$13 +50%
Will England win on 2026-06-23? Jun 23 $5 −$5 -98%
Portugal vs. Uzbekistan: O/U 4.5 Jun 23 $15 −$15 -98%
Will Senegal win on 2026-06-22? Jun 23 $15 −$15 -98%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? Jun 22 $30 +$19 +62%
New Zealand vs. Egypt: Both Teams to Score Jun 22 $20 −$20 -100%
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-21? Jun 22 $51 +$68 +133%
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-21? Jun 22 $25 −$25 -100%
Tunisia vs. Japan: Japan O/U 2.5 Jun 21 $27 +$18 +67%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $26 −$8 -33%
Netherlands vs. Sweden: Both Teams to Score Jun 20 $40 +$25 +62%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $51 +$34 +67%
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $401 −$1 -0%
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $31 −$20 -64%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $101 +$74 +73%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-18? Jun 19 $203 +$172 +84%
Will DR Congo win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $5 −$5 -97%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $10 −$10 -98%
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $102 −$100 -98%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $20 +$17 +86%
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $5 −$5 -98%
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $1 −$1 -97%
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $1 −$1 -97%
Will Neymar play in the World Cup? Jun 11 $26 +$3 +12%
Will Aston Villa FC win on 2026-02-21? Feb 21 $61 −$56 -92%
Will Brentford FC win on 2026-02-21? Feb 21 $54 −$54 -99%
Will CF América win on 2026-02-20? Feb 21 $59 +$50 +85%
Will Sport Lisboa e Benfica win on 2026-02-17? Feb 17 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Club Necaxa win on 2026-02-13? Feb 16 $31 +$69 +223%
Will FC Juárez vs. Club Necaxa end in a draw? Feb 14 $30 −$30 -100%
Will Pumas de la UNAM win on 2026-02-13? Feb 14 $67 +$8 +12%
Seahawks vs. Patriots Feb 09 $50 +$11 +22%
US government shutdown Saturday? Feb 01 $10 +$3 +33%
Will Athletic Club vs. Sporting CP end in a draw? Jan 28 $15 −$14 -96%
Will Sporting CP win on 2026-01-28? Jan 28 $15 +$27 +182%
Will Juventus FC win on 2026-01-28? Jan 28 $8 −$8 -100%
Will BV Borussia 09 Dortmund vs. FC Internazionale Milano end in a dra Jan 28 $10 −$10 -100%
Will BV Borussia 09 Dortmund win on 2026-01-28? Jan 28 $10 −$10 -100%
Will FC Barcelona win on 2026-01-11? Jan 22 $48 +$19 +39%
Will Real Madrid CF win on 2026-01-11? Jan 11 $10 −$10 -97%
Will AFC Bournemouth vs. Tottenham Hotspur FC end in a draw? Jan 05 $10 −$10 -100%
Will Tottenham Hotspur FC win on 2026-01-07? Jan 05 $10 −$10 -100%
Will Chelsea FC win on 2026-01-07? Jan 05 $30 −$30 -100%
Will Everton FC win on 2026-01-07? Jan 05 $30 −$30 -100%
Will Aston Villa FC win on 2026-01-07? Jan 05 $30 −$30 -100%
Will Newcastle United FC win on 2026-01-04? Jan 05 $25 +$18 +72%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Uruguay vs. Spain: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 40¢ $25 1h
Uruguay vs. Spain: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 44¢ $25 1h
Will United States win on 2026-06-25? SELL Yes 20¢ $8 18h
Will United States win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 50¢ $20 20h
Will Japan win on 2026-06-25? SELL Yes 26¢ $16 21h
Will Japan win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 39¢ $25 22h
Will Ecuador vs. Germany end in a draw? SELL Yes 0¢ $0 23h
Will Ecuador vs. Germany end in a draw? BUY Yes 18¢ $5 23h
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 57¢ $25 44h
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 66¢ $25 46h
Will England win on 2026-06-23? BUY Yes 24¢ $5 2d
Portugal vs. Uzbekistan: O/U 4.5 BUY Under 40¢ $15 3d
Will Senegal win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 35¢ $15 3d
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? SELL Yes 100¢ $49 4d
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 61¢ $30 4d
Will the US confirm that aliens exist by September 30? BUY Yes 5¢ $1 4d
Will the US confirm that aliens exist by June 30? BUY Yes 0¢ $1 4d
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-21? SELL Yes 100¢ $119 4d
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 42¢ $51 4d
New Zealand vs. Egypt: Both Teams to Score BUY No 39¢ $20 4d
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 45¢ $10 4d
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 45¢ $15 4d
Tunisia vs. Japan: Japan O/U 2.5 SELL Over 100¢ $45 5d
Tunisia vs. Japan: Japan O/U 2.5 BUY Over 59¢ $27 5d
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? SELL Yes 21¢ $17 6d
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 30¢ $26 6d
Netherlands vs. Sweden: Both Teams to Score SELL Yes 100¢ $66 6d
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20? SELL Yes 100¢ $85 6d
Netherlands vs. Sweden: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 61¢ $40 6d
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 59¢ $51 6d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $56.53 · official $56.53 (match) · 157 history records