Wallet analysis

2026-06-19T02:44:00+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1.5
score
0E 0x0e44…a3e9 crypto 7 markets active 1h ago coverage 1d
RISKYcopy with care crypto specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ only 1d of captured history — unreliable✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL +$57 (+14%) realized +$29 · open +$28
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -5% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -21% what you keep after slip
Net edge-21%after slip
Net WR50%break-even
Win rate50%3W / 3L
Drawdown28%max
Avg bet$60per market
Trades / day9.0pace
Kalshi-fit86%portable
Net worth$68now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 1d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 90% +$218
other 10% +$28
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +50%
net ROI/market (all)-14.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 6 -5.3% -14.3% 50% 50% +43.0%
≤30d 6 -5.3% -14.3% 50% 50% +43.0%
≤90d 6 -5.3% -14.3% 50% 50% +43.0%
all 6 -5.3% -14.3% 50% 50% +43.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover9.0 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -14.3% 50% +43.0%
10% -22.5% 50% +29.3%
15% -30.0% 33% +16.8%
20% -36.9% 33% +5.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 50% · top 2 91% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +58% too few recent
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -5% · $-wt +58% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$93 vs −$20 · ×4.57 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×4.57 per $1 lost it wins $4.57
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

1d coverage
Net worth$68
Realized+$29
Unrealized+$28
Win rate (resolved)50%
Wins / losses3 / 3
Open positions1
Markets (closed)6 / 7
History coverage1d
Avg bet$60
Trades / day9.0
Drawdown28%
Kalshi-fit86%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 6 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-18? Yes 48¢ 81¢ $40 $68 +$28 (+70%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 2 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 6:25PM-6:30PM ET Jun 18 $104 +$140 +134%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 6:10PM-6:15PM ET Jun 18 $107 +$26 +24%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 5:50PM-5:55PM ET Jun 18 $104 +$114 +110%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 5:35PM-5:40PM ET Jun 18 $31 −$31 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 5:45PM-5:50PM ET Jun 18 $5 −$5 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 5:40PM-5:45PM ET Jun 18 $26 −$25 -95%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 48¢ $41 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 6:25PM-6:30PM ET BUY Up 41¢ $104 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 6:10PM-6:15PM ET BUY Up 1¢ $5 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 6:10PM-6:15PM ET BUY Down 75¢ $102 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 5:50PM-5:55PM ET BUY Down 46¢ $104 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 5:45PM-5:50PM ET BUY Down 8¢ $5 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 5:40PM-5:45PM ET BUY Up 30¢ $26 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 5:35PM-5:40PM ET BUY Up 5¢ $5 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 5:35PM-5:40PM ET BUY Up 51¢ $26 5h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $67.91 · official $67.92 (match) · 13 history records