Wallet analysis

2026-06-19T18:42:02+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
0E 0x0e43…6583 sports 131 markets active 2h ago coverage 13d
BOTnot copyable sports specialistFading edge⚠ High turnoverP/L from Polymarket (history capped)
✗ bot/MM pace (70 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ on-chain reconstruction ≠ official P&L (longshot/capped history)✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$1,450 (+1%) realized +$2,199 · open −$749
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -1% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -27% what you keep after slip
Net edge-27%after slip
Net WR56%break-even
Win rate59%79W / 56L
Whale WR56%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$798per market
Trades / day70.2pace
Fees−$1,222est.
Kalshi-fit97%portable
Net worth$762now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 13d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 97% +$443
other 3% −$2,352
weather 0% −$65
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (70 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +56%
net ROI/market (all)-10.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 69 -9.6% -18.2% 51% 48% -17.4%
≤30d 135 -0.8% -10.3% 59% 56% -11.4%
≤90d 135 -0.8% -10.3% 59% 56% -11.4%
all 135 -0.8% -10.3% 59% 56% -11.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover70.2 tr/day
realistic slip~15%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -10.3% 56% -11.4%
10% -18.9% 48% -19.8%
15% ← realistic here -26.7% 36% -27.6%
20% -33.9% 19% -34.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 4% · top 2 8% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -2% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
3% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -1% · $-wt -2% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 56% (≥$999) strong on big bets
Persistence
early +9% → late -10% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
4.3 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$299 vs −$465 · ×0.64 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.91 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

13d coverage
Net worth$762
Realized+$2,199
Unrealized−$749
Win rate (resolved)59%
Wins / losses79 / 56
Whale WR (big bets)56%
Est. fees paid−$1,222
Open positions2
Markets (closed)135 / 131
History coverage13d
Avg bet$798
Trades / day70.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit97%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 135 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs Team Falcons - Map 1 Winner Vitality 60¢ 62¢ $743 $762 +$19 (+2%)
Map Handicap: TS (-1.5) vs G2 (+1.5) Spirit 51¢ 0¢ $769 $1 −$768 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 24 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Counter-Strike: THUNDER dOWNUNDER vs FlyQuest - Map 2 Winner Jun 19 $92 −$92 -100%
LoL: Winthrop University vs CCG Esports - Game 2 Winner Jun 19 $184 −$184 -100%
LoL: Dplus KIA vs HANJIN BRION - Game 1 Winner Jun 19 $170 −$170 -100%
LoL: Barça eSports vs ⁠Movistar KOI Fénix - Game 1 Winner Jun 19 $414 −$414 -100%
LoL: ⁠Movistar KOI Fénix vs UCAM Esports Club (BO5) - LES Playoffs Jun 19 $274 −$274 -100%
Counter-Strike: GamerLegion vs BIG - Map 1 Winner Jun 19 $106 −$56 -53%
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs Jun 19 $981 −$227 -23%
LoL: T1 Academy vs KT Rolster Challengers - Game 4 Winner Jun 19 $8 −$8 -99%
LoL: T1 Academy vs KT Rolster Challengers - Game 3 Winner Jun 19 $573 −$573 -100%
LoL: T1 Academy vs KT Rolster Challengers - Game 1 Winner Jun 19 $168 +$132 +78%
LoL: T1 Academy vs KT Rolster Challengers - Game 2 Winner Jun 19 $591 −$304 -52%
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs 9z - Map 2 Winner Jun 18 $500 +$252 +50%
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs 9z - Map 1 Winner Jun 18 $453 −$448 -99%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs BetBoom Team - Map 2 Winner Jun 18 $364 +$235 +64%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs BetBoom Team - Map 1 Winner Jun 18 $269 −$225 -84%
Portugal to score first vs. DR Congo? Jun 17 $393 +$107 +27%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $557 +$278 +50%
Will Belgium vs. Egypt end in a draw? Jun 16 $309 +$191 +62%
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $457 −$453 -99%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 15 $1,736 −$116 -7%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs G2 - Map 2 Winner Jun 15 $1,072 −$419 -39%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs G2 - Map 1 Winner Jun 15 $424 +$176 +41%
LoL: Solary vs Galions - Game 3 Winner Jun 15 $211 −$91 -43%
LoL: Solary vs Galions - Game 2 Winner Jun 15 $240 −$240 -100%
Will Ilia Topuria win by KO or TKO? Jun 15 $2,224 −$2,201 -99%
UFC Freedom 250: Aiemann Zahabi vs. Sean O'Malley (Bantamweight, Main Jun 15 $785 +$215 +27%
UFC Freedom 250: Derrick Lewis vs. Josh Hokit (Heavyweight, Main Card) Jun 15 $805 +$195 +24%
UFC Freedom 250: Michael Chandler vs. Mauricio Ruffy (Lightweight, Mai Jun 15 $815 +$185 +23%
LoL: LYON vs Team Liquid - Game 2 Winner Jun 15 $358 +$308 +86%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Team Falcons - Map 2 Winner Jun 14 $420 +$480 +114%
LoL: LYON vs Team Liquid - Game 1 Winner Jun 14 $348 −$218 -63%
Counter-Strike: G2 vs Legacy - Map 2 Winner Jun 14 $690 +$295 +43%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Team Falcons - Map 1 Winner Jun 14 $964 −$62 -6%
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs Vitality - Map 1 Winner Jun 14 $1,001 +$298 +30%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs 9z - Map 2 Winner Jun 14 $390 +$161 +41%
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs Vitality - Map 2 Winner Jun 14 $882 +$32 +4%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs 9z - Map 1 Winner Jun 14 $284 −$112 -40%
Counter-Strike: MOUZ vs FUT Esports (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 14 $313 +$337 +108%
Counter-Strike: MOUZ vs FUT Esports - Map 2 Winner Jun 14 $863 +$471 +55%
Counter-Strike: TheMongolz vs Monte - Map 1 Winner Jun 14 $1,436 −$407 -28%
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G (BO5) - LCK Road to MSI Jun 14 $1,382 −$349 -25%
LoL: Top Esports vs Bilibili Gaming - Game 3 Winner Jun 14 $633 +$365 +58%
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G - Game 4 Winner Jun 14 $520 +$177 +34%
LoL: Top Esports vs Bilibili Gaming - Game 2 Winner Jun 14 $712 +$377 +53%
LoL: Top Esports vs Bilibili Gaming - Game 1 Winner Jun 14 $390 +$109 +28%
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G - Game 3 Winner Jun 14 $329 −$122 -37%
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G - Game 2 Winner Jun 14 $1,324 −$145 -11%
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G - Game 1 Winner Jun 14 $554 +$315 +57%
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 14 $1,229 +$212 +17%
LoL: Team Liquid vs Cloud9 - Game 2 Winner Jun 13 $508 −$497 -98%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs Team Falcons - Map 1 Winner BUY Vitality 60¢ $752 1h
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs SELL Spirit 43¢ $595 1h
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs SELL Spirit 43¢ $2 1h
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs SELL Spirit 43¢ $156 1h
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs BUY Spirit 55¢ $5 3h
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs BUY Spirit 55¢ $975 3h
Map Handicap: TS (-1.5) vs G2 (+1.5) BUY Spirit 51¢ $780 6h
LoL: T1 Academy vs KT Rolster Challengers - Game 4 Winner BUY KT Rolster Challengers 55¢ $8 7h
LoL: T1 Academy vs KT Rolster Challengers - Game 3 Winner BUY T1 Academy 62¢ $44 8h
LoL: T1 Academy vs KT Rolster Challengers - Game 3 Winner BUY T1 Academy 62¢ $408 8h
LoL: T1 Academy vs KT Rolster Challengers - Game 3 Winner BUY T1 Academy 62¢ $117 8h
LoL: T1 Academy vs KT Rolster Challengers - Game 3 Winner BUY T1 Academy 60¢ $5 8h
LoL: T1 Academy vs KT Rolster Challengers - Game 1 Winner SELL KT Rolster Challengers 100¢ $300 8h
LoL: T1 Academy vs KT Rolster Challengers - Game 2 Winner SELL KT Rolster Challengers 4¢ $7 8h
LoL: T1 Academy vs KT Rolster Challengers - Game 2 Winner SELL KT Rolster Challengers 4¢ $13 8h
LoL: T1 Academy vs KT Rolster Challengers - Game 2 Winner BUY KT Rolster Challengers 56¢ $280 8h
LoL: T1 Academy vs KT Rolster Challengers - Game 2 Winner BUY KT Rolster Challengers 50¢ $6 8h
LoL: T1 Academy vs KT Rolster Challengers - Game 1 Winner BUY KT Rolster Challengers 56¢ $157 9h
LoL: T1 Academy vs KT Rolster Challengers - Game 1 Winner BUY KT Rolster Challengers 56¢ $11 9h
LoL: T1 Academy vs KT Rolster Challengers - Game 2 Winner SELL T1 Academy 54¢ $266 9h
LoL: T1 Academy vs KT Rolster Challengers - Game 2 Winner BUY T1 Academy 61¢ $305 9h
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs 9z - Map 2 Winner SELL FURIA 100¢ $752 23h
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs 9z - Map 2 Winner BUY FURIA 66¢ $500 24h
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs 9z - Map 1 Winner BUY FURIA 64¢ $453 26h
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs BetBoom Team - Map 2 Winner SELL Aurora Gaming 100¢ $599 26h
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs BetBoom Team - Map 2 Winner BUY Aurora Gaming 60¢ $364 28h
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs BetBoom Team - Map 1 Winner SELL BetBoom Team 9¢ $44 28h
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs BetBoom Team - Map 1 Winner BUY BetBoom Team 53¢ $269 28h
Portugal to score first vs. DR Congo? BUY Yes 78¢ $393 2d
Will France win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 66¢ $557 3d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $762.44 · official $762.44 (match) · 1000 history records