Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T15:26:37+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
0E 0x0e42…ceb7 crypto 21 markets active 6d ago coverage 1d
BOTnot copyable crypto specialistFresh edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample
✗ bot/MM pace (60 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ only 1d of captured history — unreliable✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL −$10 (-8%) realized −$10 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -11% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -31% what you keep after slip
Net edge-31%after slip
Net WR48%break-even
Win rate48%10W / 11L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$6per market
Trades / day60.0pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$3now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 1d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% −$13
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (60 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +48%
net ROI/market (all)-19.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 17 -13.1% -21.4% 41% 41% -27.2%
≤30d 21 -10.8% -19.3% 48% 48% -21.5%
≤90d 21 -10.8% -19.3% 48% 48% -21.5%
all 21 -10.8% -19.3% 48% 48% -21.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover60.0 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -19.3% 48% -21.5%
10% ← realistic here -27.0% 38% -29.1%
15% -34.1% 29% -35.9%
20% -40.5% 24% -42.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 22% · top 2 43% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -14% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -11% · $-wt -14% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -29% → late +6% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.9 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$2 vs −$3 · ×0.62 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.57 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

1d coverage
Net worth$3
Realized−$10
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)48%
Wins / losses10 / 11
Open positions0
Markets (closed)21 / 21
History coverage1d
Avg bet$6
Trades / day60.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 21 Trades
no open positions (6 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 7:15AM-7:20AM ET Jun 11 $2 +$1 +60%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 7:10AM-7:15AM ET Jun 11 $21 −$10 -48%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 7:05AM-7:10AM ET Jun 11 $17 −$1 -4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 7:00AM-7:05AM ET Jun 11 $1 −$1 -67%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 3:50AM-3:55AM ET Jun 11 $1 +$1 +86%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 6:20AM-6:25AM ET Jun 11 $2 $0 -13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 6:10AM-6:15AM ET Jun 11 $1 +$1 +86%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 6:05AM-6:10AM ET Jun 11 $3 −$2 -66%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 6:00AM-6:05AM ET Jun 11 $1 +$1 +102%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 3:45AM-3:50AM ET Jun 11 $4 −$4 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 3:40AM-3:45AM ET Jun 11 $4 +$4 +92%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 3:35AM-3:40AM ET Jun 11 $1 −$1 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 3:30AM-3:35AM ET Jun 11 $6 −$1 -16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 3:25AM-3:30AM ET Jun 11 $10 +$4 +36%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 11:55AM-12:00PM ET Jun 10 $5 +$1 +16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 11:50AM-11:55AM ET Jun 10 $20 −$5 -26%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 11:45AM-11:50AM ET Jun 10 $5 −$2 -39%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 10:40AM-10:45AM ET Jun 10 $5 +$2 +29%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 10:30AM-10:35AM ET Jun 10 $10 +$3 +25%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 10:25AM-10:30AM ET Jun 10 $5 −$4 -75%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 10:20AM-10:25AM ET Jun 10 $5 +$1 +17%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 7:15AM-7:20AM ET BUY Down 74¢ $1 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 7:15AM-7:20AM ET BUY Down 53¢ $1 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 7:10AM-7:15AM ET BUY Down 55¢ $10 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 7:10AM-7:15AM ET SELL Up 43¢ $9 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 7:10AM-7:15AM ET BUY Up 48¢ $10 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 7:05AM-7:10AM ET SELL Down 66¢ $7 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 7:05AM-7:10AM ET BUY Down 56¢ $5 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 7:05AM-7:10AM ET SELL Up 45¢ $9 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 7:05AM-7:10AM ET BUY Down 53¢ $1 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 7:05AM-7:10AM ET BUY Up 48¢ $10 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 7:00AM-7:05AM ET SELL Up 16¢ $0 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 7:00AM-7:05AM ET BUY Up 44¢ $1 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 6:20AM-6:25AM ET BUY Down 46¢ $1 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 6:20AM-6:25AM ET SELL Down 69¢ $2 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 6:20AM-6:25AM ET BUY Down 40¢ $1 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 6:10AM-6:15AM ET BUY Down 52¢ $1 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 6:05AM-6:10AM ET SELL Down 4¢ $0 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 6:05AM-6:10AM ET BUY Down 40¢ $1 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 6:05AM-6:10AM ET SELL Up 47¢ $1 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 6:05AM-6:10AM ET BUY Up 51¢ $1 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 6:05AM-6:10AM ET BUY Down 51¢ $1 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 6:00AM-6:05AM ET SELL Down 55¢ $2 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 6:00AM-6:05AM ET BUY Down 25¢ $1 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 3:50AM-3:55AM ET BUY Down 52¢ $1 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 3:45AM-3:50AM ET BUY Down 4¢ $1 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 3:45AM-3:50AM ET BUY Down 16¢ $1 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 3:45AM-3:50AM ET BUY Down 50¢ $1 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 3:45AM-3:50AM ET BUY Down 50¢ $1 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 3:40AM-3:45AM ET SELL Up 88¢ $8 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 3:40AM-3:45AM ET BUY Up 32¢ $1 6d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $3.24 · official $3.24 (match) · 63 history records