Wallet analysis

2026-06-26T12:14:53+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.0
score
0E 0x0e3f…8e8d other 267 markets active 2h ago coverage 281d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL +$11,236 (+4%) realized +$11,725 · open −$489
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -5% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -18% what you keep after slip
Net edge-18%after slip
Net WR46%break-even
Win rate55%145W / 117L
Whale WR82%big bets
Drawdown78%max
Avg bet$962per market
Trades / day2.2pace
Fees−$60est.
Kalshi-fit37%portable
Net worth$4,268now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$930
7 days+$2,253
14 days+$2,253
30 days+$2,253
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 73% +$12,009
crypto 15% +$301
world 6% −$503
sports 3% −$752
politics 2% −$123
tech 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +46%
net ROI/market (all)-14.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 10 -15.7% -23.7% 70% 60% +2.1%
≤30d 10 -15.7% -23.7% 70% 60% +2.1%
≤90d 76 -21.6% -29.1% 46% 42% -17.1%
all 262 -5.2% -14.2% 55% 46% -5.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.2 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -14.2% 46% -5.4%
10% -22.4% 39% -14.4%
15% -29.9% 30% -22.7%
20% -36.8% 24% -30.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 7% · top 2 11% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -8% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
16% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -5% · $-wt +5% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR 82% (≥$1,000) strong on big bets
Persistence
early -5% → late -5% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.2 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$372 vs −$364 · ×1.02 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×1.27 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

281d coverage
Net worth$4,268
Realized+$11,725
Unrealized−$489
Win rate (resolved)55%
Wins / losses145 / 117
Whale WR (big bets)82%
Est. fees paid−$60
Open positions4
Markets (closed)262 / 267
History coverage281d
Avg bet$962
Trades / day2.2
Drawdown78%
Kalshi-fit37%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 4 History 262 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 13¢ 10¢ $2,044 $1,657 −$386 (-19%)
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 14¢ 14¢ $1,668 $1,587 −$82 (-5%)
Will France win on 2026-06-26? Yes 60¢ 60¢ $1,010 $1,010 −$0 (-0%)
Will Lamine Yamal win the 2026 Ballon d'Or? Yes 33¢ 13¢ $35 $14 −$21 (-61%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 107 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-25? Jun 26 $2,007 +$254 +13%
Spread: Netherlands (-2.5) Jun 25 $51 −$50 -99%
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-25? Jun 25 $101 +$21 +20%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-25? Jun 25 $507 −$327 -64%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-25? Jun 25 $101 −$100 -99%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-24? Jun 25 $1,957 +$633 +32%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-24? Jun 25 $2,513 +$499 +20%
Will France win on 2026-06-22? Jun 23 $2,008 +$193 +10%
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 20 $707 +$208 +29%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $7,701 +$923 +12%
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-05-30? May 21 $1,017 −$1,000 -98%
Will PSG win the 2025–26 Champions League? May 21 $1,013 −$25 -2%
Will RC Celta de Vigo win on 2026-05-12? May 12 $102 −$100 -98%
Will Arsenal win the 2025–26 English Premier League? May 12 $100 −$3 -3%
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-05-10? May 12 $101 +$20 +19%
Will FC Barcelona win on 2026-05-10? May 12 $101 +$65 +65%
Will Arsenal win the 2025–26 Champions League? May 09 $100 +$117 +117%
Will Club Atlético de Madrid win on 2026-04-29? Apr 29 $408 −$400 -98%
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-04-25? Apr 29 $1,000 +$274 +27%
Will Arsenal FC win on 2026-04-25? Apr 29 $1,000 +$416 +42%
Will FC Barcelona win on 2026-04-25? Apr 29 $1,000 +$660 +66%
Will FC Barcelona win on 2026-04-22? Apr 23 $6,232 +$1,705 +27%
Will Real Madrid CF win on 2026-04-21? Apr 22 $5,076 +$1,155 +23%
Will Arsenal FC win on 2026-04-19? Apr 18 $1,000 −$977 -98%
LoL: Dplus KIA vs T1 (BO3) - LCK Rounds 1-2 Apr 17 $500 −$402 -80%
Will Arsenal FC win on 2026-04-15? Apr 15 $2,000 −$1,012 -51%
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-04-14? Apr 15 $1,000 +$1,455 +146%
Will FC Barcelona win on 2026-04-14? Apr 15 $2,200 +$1,072 +49%
Will Barcelona win the 2025–26 La Liga? Apr 12 $400 +$110 +28%
Will FC Bayern München win on 2026-04-11? Apr 12 $1,000 +$359 +36%
Will FC Barcelona win on 2026-04-11? Apr 12 $3,958 +$1,272 +32%
Will Real Madrid CF win on 2026-04-10? Apr 10 $9,500 −$9,431 -99%
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-04-08? Apr 09 $13,161 +$1,091 +8%
Will FC Barcelona win on 2026-04-08? Apr 08 $4,063 −$4,000 -98%
Will Arsenal FC win on 2026-04-07? Apr 08 $800 +$602 +75%
Exact Score: Real Madrid CF 2 - 1 FC Bayern München? Apr 07 $10 −$10 -97%
Exact Score: Real Madrid CF 1 - 0 FC Bayern München? Apr 07 $5 −$5 -97%
Will Getafe CF win on 2026-04-05? Apr 05 $200 +$412 +206%
LoL: JD Gaming vs Bilibili Gaming (BO3) - LPL Group Ascend Apr 05 $50 −$49 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 5, 5:40AM-5:45AM ET Apr 05 $50 −$47 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 5, 5:35AM-5:40AM ET Apr 05 $40 −$38 -95%
Will Real Madrid CF win on 2026-04-07? Apr 05 $1,038 −$1,019 -98%
US forces enter Iran by March 31? Apr 05 $15,000 +$252 +2%
Will FC Bayern München win on 2026-04-04? Apr 05 $600 +$332 +55%
Will FC Barcelona win on 2026-04-04? Apr 05 $711 +$857 +121%
Will Inter Miami CF win on 2026-04-04? Apr 04 $500 −$500 -100%
LoL: T1 vs Hanwha Life Esports (BO3) - LCK Rounds 1-2 Apr 04 $100 +$93 +93%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 4, 3:50AM-3:55AM ET Apr 04 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 4, 3:45AM-3:50AM ET Apr 04 $15 −$13 -84%
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-04-03? Apr 04 $300 +$93 +31%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will France win on 2026-06-26? BUY Yes 60¢ $516 1h
Will Türkiye vs. United States end in a draw? AND Will Paraguay vs. Au BUY 10¢ $10 10h
Spread: Netherlands (-2.5) BUY Netherlands 56¢ $51 13h
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 87¢ $1,004 13h
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 83¢ $101 18h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-25? SELL Yes 61¢ $171 18h
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 90¢ $702 18h
Will Japan win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 53¢ $101 28h
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 90¢ $301 29h
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 75¢ $1,957 2d
Will France win on 2026-06-26? BUY Yes 59¢ $506 2d
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 83¢ $2,513 2d
Will Germany win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 53¢ $507 2d
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 14¢ $171 2d
Will France win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 91¢ $2,008 3d
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 13¢ $233 4d
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 14¢ $101 4d
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 13¢ $105 4d
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 14¢ $225 5d
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 13¢ $313 5d
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 20¢ $915 5d
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 14¢ $253 5d
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 13¢ $417 5d
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 14¢ $141 6d
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 13¢ $310 6d
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 89¢ $7,701 8d
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 13¢ $103 8d
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 14¢ $205 8d
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 13¢ $308 8d
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-05-30? BUY Yes 42¢ $1,017 36d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $4,267.78 · official $4,267.78 (match) · 887 history records