Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T12:25:38+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.5
score
0E 0x0e3f…1939 sports 5 markets active 1h ago coverage 242d
RISKYcopy with care sports specialist⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge
Total PnL −$396 (-16%) realized −$395 · open −$1
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +33% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +15% what you keep after slip
Net edge+15%after slip
Net WR75%break-even
Win rate75%3W / 1L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$494per market
Trades / day0.1pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit60%portable
Net worth$98now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days$0
14 days$0
30 days$0
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 95% −$407
sports 5% +$10
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +75%
net ROI/market (all)+20.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d no closed markets
≤30d no closed markets
≤90d no closed markets
all 4 +32.6% +20.0% 75% 75% -24.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.1 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to10%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +20.0% 75% -24.6%
10% +8.5% 75% -31.9%
15% -2.0% 50% -38.4%
20% -11.6% 50% -44.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 50% · top 2 76% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI — too few recent
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +33% · $-wt -17% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
2.2 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$5 vs −$410 · ×0.01 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.03 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

242d coverage
Net worth$98
Realized−$395
Unrealized−$1
Win rate (resolved)75%
Wins / losses3 / 1
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions1
Markets (closed)4 / 5
History coverage242d
Avg bet$494
Trades / day0.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit60%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 4 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Czechia vs. South Africa: 1st Half O/U 0.5 Over 67¢ 66¢ $99 $98 −$1 (-1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will T1 win LoL Worlds 2025? Nov 09 $2,340 −$410 -18%
Will Gen.G win LoL Worlds 2025? Nov 01 $10 +$3 +33%
LoL: KT Rolster vs CTBC Flying Oyster (BO5) Oct 29 $13 +$7 +54%
LoL: Movistar KOI vs Fnatic (BO3) Oct 19 $6 +$4 +61%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Czechia vs. South Africa: 1st Half O/U 0.5 BUY Over 67¢ $100 1h
Will T1 win LoL Worlds 2025? SELL Yes 64¢ $1,930 221d
Will T1 win LoL Worlds 2025? BUY Yes 78¢ $2,212 221d
Will T1 win LoL Worlds 2025? BUY Yes 78¢ $36 221d
Will T1 win LoL Worlds 2025? BUY Yes 78¢ $36 221d
Will T1 win LoL Worlds 2025? BUY Yes 78¢ $32 221d
Will T1 win LoL Worlds 2025? BUY Yes 78¢ $18 221d
Will T1 win LoL Worlds 2025? BUY Yes 78¢ $6 221d
Will Gen.G win LoL Worlds 2025? SELL Yes 56¢ $13 229d
LoL: KT Rolster vs CTBC Flying Oyster (BO5) SELL KT Rolster 100¢ $20 232d
LoL: KT Rolster vs CTBC Flying Oyster (BO5) BUY KT Rolster 66¢ $7 232d
LoL: KT Rolster vs CTBC Flying Oyster (BO5) BUY KT Rolster 64¢ $6 232d
LoL: Movistar KOI vs Fnatic (BO3) SELL Movistar KOI 100¢ $10 242d
LoL: Movistar KOI vs Fnatic (BO3) BUY Movistar KOI 62¢ $6 242d
Will Gen.G win LoL Worlds 2025? BUY Yes 42¢ $10 242d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $98.10 · official $98.10 (match) · 15 history records