Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T17:19:49+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
0E 0x0e3d…85ab sports 133 markets active 0h ago coverage 101d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$12,351 (+23%) realized +$12,561 · open −$210
Gross ROI / mkt +10% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -0% what you keep after slip
Net edge-0%after slip
Net WR49%break-even
Win rate49%58W / 60L
Whale WR63%big bets
Drawdown34%max
Avg bet$400per market
Trades / day1.4pace
Fees−$786est.
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$3,139now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$184
7 days−$184
14 days−$184
30 days+$4,766
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 100% +$11,739
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +49%
net ROI/market (all)-0.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 4 -52.6% -57.1% 25% 25% -30.1%
≤30d 9 +24.4% +12.5% 56% 56% +63.7%
≤90d 97 +3.5% -6.3% 46% 46% +11.6%
all 118 +10.3% -0.2% 49% 49% +12.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.4 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -0.2% 49% +12.2%
10% -9.7% 49% +1.4%
15% -18.5% 49% -8.4%
20% -26.5% 49% -17.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 8% · top 2 15% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +23% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +10% · $-wt +24% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 63% (≥$506) strong on big bets
Persistence
early +8% → late +13% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$567 vs −$349 · ×1.62 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.57 per $1 lost it wins $1.57
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

101d coverage
Net worth$3,139
Realized+$12,561
Unrealized−$210
Win rate (resolved)49%
Wins / losses58 / 60
Whale WR (big bets)63%
Est. fees paid−$786
Open positions15
Markets (closed)118 / 133
History coverage101d
Avg bet$400
Trades / day1.4
Drawdown34%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 15 History 118 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Czechia vs. South Africa: Both Teams to Score in First Half No 83¢ 100¢ $395 $475 +$81 (+20%)
Switzerland vs. Bosnia-Herzegovina: O/U 10.5 Total Corners Under 66¢ 66¢ $413 $416 +$3 (+1%)
Canada vs. Qatar: Qatar O/U 2.5 Corners Under 52¢ 55¢ $362 $380 +$18 (+5%)
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: Both Teams to Score in First Half No 83¢ 82¢ $374 $371 −$2 (-1%)
Brazil vs. Haiti: Haiti O/U 0.5 Under 59¢ 58¢ $259 $257 −$2 (-1%)
Brazil vs. Haiti: Both Teams to Score No 61¢ 60¢ $255 $253 −$2 (-1%)
Switzerland vs. Bosnia-Herzegovina: 1st Half O/U 3.5 Total Corners Under 37¢ 36¢ $241 $239 −$2 (-1%)
Switzerland vs. Bosnia-Herzegovina: Bosnia-Herzegovina O/U 2.5 Corners Under 42¢ 40¢ $224 $215 −$9 (-4%)
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: 1st Half O/U 3.5 Total Corners Under 42¢ 44¢ $170 $176 +$6 (+4%)
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: O/U 9.5 Total Corners Over 36¢ 36¢ $121 $120 −$2 (-1%)
Czechia vs. South Africa: O/U 9.5 Total Corners Under 63¢ 10¢ $381 $64 −$318 (-83%)
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: O/U 9.5 Total Corners Under 63¢ 64¢ $61 $62 +$1 (+2%)
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: O/U 7.5 Total Corners Under 38¢ 40¢ $44 $46 +$2 (+4%)
Scotland vs. Morocco: O/U 8.5 Total Corners Under 48¢ 50¢ $25 $26 +$1 (+4%)
Czechia vs. South Africa: South Africa O/U 3.5 Corners Over 42¢ 100¢ $9 $22 +$13 (+138%)
Scotland vs. Morocco: Morocco O/U 4.5 Corners Under 45¢ 46¢ $16 $16 +$0 (+2%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 4 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: O/U 8.5 Total Corners Jun 18 $330 +$296 +90%
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: Colombia O/U 5.5 Corners Jun 18 $189 −$186 -98%
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: Uzbekistan O/U 2.5 Corners Jun 18 $101 −$99 -98%
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: O/U 10.5 Total Corners Jun 18 $199 −$194 -98%
Golden Knights vs. Hurricanes Jun 03 $1,018 +$1,421 +140%
Golden Knights vs. Hurricanes: O/U 6.5 Jun 03 $1,018 +$1,482 +146%
Golden Knights vs. Hurricanes: O/U 5.5 Jun 03 $2,028 +$1,745 +86%
Canadiens vs. Hurricanes May 22 $505 −$505 -100%
Golden Knights vs. Avalanche May 21 $509 +$806 +158%
Sabres vs. Canadiens May 17 $509 +$741 +146%
Golden Knights vs. Ducks May 15 $1,015 +$946 +93%
Golden Knights vs. Ducks May 11 $508 −$508 -100%
Golden Knights vs. Ducks May 09 $508 +$492 +97%
Ducks vs. Golden Knights May 07 $506 −$506 -100%
Canadiens vs. Sabres May 07 $507 +$402 +79%
Hurricanes vs. Senators Apr 25 $1,000 −$498 -50%
Honor of Kings: Kuaishou Gaming vs Talent Gaming - Game 1 Winner Apr 25 $500 −$500 -100%
Hurricanes vs. Senators Apr 24 $1,000 +$1,051 +105%
Stars vs. Wild Apr 23 $1,000 +$1,139 +114%
Ducks vs. Oilers Apr 23 $500 +$791 +158%
Canadiens vs. Lightning Apr 22 $500 −$500 -100%
Ducks vs. Oilers Apr 21 $500 −$500 -100%
Flyers vs. Penguins Apr 21 $1,000 +$1,260 +126%
Bruins vs. Sabres Apr 20 $1,000 −$1,000 -100%
Canadiens vs. Lightning Apr 20 $1,500 +$2,374 +158%
Ducks vs. Predators Apr 17 $500 −$500 -100%
Sharks vs. Jets Apr 17 $500 −$500 -100%
Stars vs. Sabres Apr 16 $500 +$377 +75%
Red Wings vs. Panthers Apr 16 $500 +$750 +150%
Will the Utah Mammoth win the 2026 NHL Stanley Cup? Apr 16 $1,000 −$1,000 -100%
Rangers vs. Lightning Apr 16 $1,000 +$1,326 +133%
Devils vs. Bruins Apr 15 $500 +$362 +72%
Hurricanes vs. Flyers Apr 14 $1,000 +$852 +85%
Capitals vs. Penguins Apr 12 $500 +$443 +89%
Spread: Hurricanes (-1.5) Apr 10 $500 −$500 -100%
Lightning vs. Canadiens Apr 10 $500 −$500 -100%
Blue Jackets vs. Sabres Apr 10 $500 +$520 +104%
Golden Knights vs. Canucks Apr 08 $500 −$500 -100%
Predators vs. Ducks Apr 08 $500 −$500 -100%
Spread: Wild (-1.5) Apr 08 $500 +$485 +97%
Lightning vs. Senators Apr 08 $1,000 +$786 +79%
Blackhawks vs. Sharks Apr 07 $1,000 −$1,000 -100%
Lightning vs. Sabres Apr 07 $500 +$520 +104%
Golden Knights vs. Oilers Apr 05 $500 +$500 +100%
Canadiens vs. Devils Apr 05 $1,000 −$1,000 -100%
Jets vs. Blue Jackets Apr 05 $1,000 +$1,326 +133%
Panthers vs. Penguins Apr 05 $1,000 −$1,000 -100%
Bruins vs. Lightning Apr 05 $500 −$500 -100%
Blues vs. Ducks Apr 04 $500 +$636 +127%
Predators vs. Kings Apr 03 $500 −$500 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Brazil vs. Haiti: Both Teams to Score BUY No 61¢ $258 18m
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: Both Teams to Score in First Half BUY No 83¢ $376 1h
Brazil vs. Haiti: Haiti O/U 0.5 BUY Under 59¢ $262 1h
Czechia vs. South Africa: South Africa O/U 3.5 Corners BUY Over 42¢ $9 1h
Czechia vs. South Africa: O/U 9.5 Total Corners BUY Under 62¢ $114 2h
Czechia vs. South Africa: O/U 9.5 Total Corners BUY Under 63¢ $271 2h
Czechia vs. South Africa: Both Teams to Score in First Half BUY No 83¢ $397 4h
Switzerland vs. Bosnia-Herzegovina: Bosnia-Herzegovina O/U 2.5 Corners BUY Under 42¢ $228 4h
Switzerland vs. Bosnia-Herzegovina: 1st Half O/U 3.5 Total Corners BUY Under 37¢ $246 4h
Switzerland vs. Bosnia-Herzegovina: O/U 10.5 Total Corners BUY Under 66¢ $417 4h
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: O/U 9.5 Total Corners BUY Over 36¢ $124 7h
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: O/U 7.5 Total Corners BUY Under 38¢ $45 8h
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: O/U 9.5 Total Corners BUY Under 63¢ $61 8h
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: 1st Half O/U 3.5 Total Corners BUY Under 42¢ $162 8h
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: 1st Half O/U 3.5 Total Corners BUY Under 41¢ $10 8h
Canada vs. Qatar: Qatar O/U 2.5 Corners BUY Under 52¢ $273 9h
Scotland vs. Morocco: Morocco O/U 4.5 Corners BUY Under 45¢ $16 10h
Scotland vs. Morocco: O/U 8.5 Total Corners BUY Under 48¢ $25 10h
Canada vs. Qatar: Qatar O/U 2.5 Corners BUY Under 53¢ $94 10h
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: Colombia O/U 5.5 Corners BUY Over 48¢ $136 15h
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: Uzbekistan O/U 2.5 Corners BUY Under 44¢ $7 15h
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: O/U 10.5 Total Corners BUY Over 24¢ $199 15h
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: Colombia O/U 5.5 Corners BUY Over 48¢ $53 15h
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: Uzbekistan O/U 2.5 Corners BUY Under 44¢ $94 15h
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: O/U 8.5 Total Corners BUY Under 52¢ $330 15h
Golden Knights vs. Hurricanes: O/U 6.5 BUY Over 40¢ $1,018 15d
Golden Knights vs. Hurricanes: O/U 5.5 BUY Over 53¢ $2,028 15d
Golden Knights vs. Hurricanes BUY Golden Knights 41¢ $1,018 15d
Canadiens vs. Hurricanes BUY Hurricanes 65¢ $505 28d
Golden Knights vs. Avalanche BUY Golden Knights 38¢ $509 29d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $3,138.60 · official $3,163.16 (match) · 270 history records