Wallet analysis

2026-06-19T06:47:35+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

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0E 0x0e3c…6e60 crypto 54 markets active 2h ago coverage 40d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL +$11,567 (+7%) realized +$10,170 · open +$1,397
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -27% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -45% what you keep after slip
Net edge-45%after slip
Net WR28%break-even
Win rate53%28W / 25L
Whale WR86%big bets
Drawdown27%max
Avg bet$3,272per market
Trades / day16.8pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$16,349now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$2,329
7 days−$646
14 days+$6,162
30 days+$9,738
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% +$11,526
world 0% −$50
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +28%
net ROI/market (all)-34.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 7 -36.9% -42.9% 43% 29% -10.5%
≤30d 40 -43.5% -48.9% 45% 22% -3.0%
≤90d 53 -27.1% -34.0% 53% 28% -3.1%
all 53 -27.1% -34.0% 53% 28% -3.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover16.8 tr/day
realistic slip~14%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -34.0% 28% -3.1%
10% ← realistic here -40.3% 19% -12.4%
15% -46.1% 15% -20.9%
20% -51.4% 9% -28.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 17% · top 2 33% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +7% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
39% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -27% · $-wt +7% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR 86% (≥$3,939) strong on big bets
Persistence
early +16% → late -69% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
10.2 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$636 vs −$309 · ×2.06 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×2.3 per $1 lost it wins $2.3
Copy size
≥ $700 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

40d coverage
Net worth$16,349
Realized+$10,170
Unrealized+$1,397
Win rate (resolved)53%
Wins / losses28 / 25
Whale WR (big bets)86%
Open positions1
Markets (closed)53 / 54
History coverage40d
Avg bet$3,272
Trades / day16.8
Drawdown27%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 53 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Bitcoin Up or Down on June 19? Up 62¢ 68¢ $14,953 $16,349 +$1,397 (+9%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 3 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down on June 18? Jun 18 $4,300 −$3,703 -86%
Bitcoin Up or Down on June 17? Jun 17 $8,126 +$1,374 +17%
Bitcoin Up or Down on June 16? Jun 16 $21,163 −$408 -2%
Bitcoin Up or Down on June 15? Jun 15 $86 −$80 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down on June 14? Jun 14 $18,588 +$1,683 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down on June 13? Jun 13 $831 −$802 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down on June 12? Jun 12 $7,333 +$1,290 +18%
Bitcoin Up or Down on June 11? Jun 11 $12,830 +$2,945 +23%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 10, 1:05AM-1:10AM ET Jun 10 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 10, 4:10AM-4:15AM ET Jun 10 $11 −$11 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 10, 12:00AM-12:05AM ET Jun 10 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 10, 3:30AM-3:35AM ET Jun 10 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 10, 3:25AM-3:30AM ET Jun 10 $11 −$11 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 10, 12:45AM-12:50AM ET Jun 10 $16 −$16 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 10, 3:10AM-3:15AM ET Jun 10 $16 −$16 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 10, 3:50AM-3:55AM ET Jun 10 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 10, 4:00AM-4:05AM ET Jun 10 $11 −$11 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 10, 3:15AM-3:20AM ET Jun 10 $11 −$11 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 10, 3:40AM-3:45AM ET Jun 10 $45 −$45 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 10, 12:15AM-12:20AM ET Jun 10 $104 −$104 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down on June 7? Jun 10 $937 −$321 -34%
Bitcoin Up or Down on May 19? Jun 10 $2,041 +$58 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down on May 13? Jun 10 $1,067 −$1,067 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down on May 16? Jun 10 $107 −$107 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down on May 12? Jun 10 $401 −$401 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down on May 14? Jun 10 $2,290 +$237 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down on May 15? Jun 10 $213 −$213 -100%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by May 31, 2026? Jun 10 $50 −$50 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down on June 10? Jun 10 $6,221 +$2,986 +48%
Bitcoin Up or Down on June 9? Jun 09 $1,644 +$882 +54%
Bitcoin Up or Down on June 8? Jun 08 $7,716 +$1,200 +16%
Bitcoin Up or Down on June 6? Jun 06 $6,344 +$488 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down on June 5? Jun 05 $4,520 +$430 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down on June 4? Jun 04 $4,936 +$93 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down on June 3? Jun 03 $5,945 +$2,047 +34%
Bitcoin Up or Down on June 2? Jun 02 $2,417 +$61 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down on May 31? Jun 01 $1,044 +$156 +15%
Bitcoin Up or Down on May 27? May 27 $4,251 +$696 +16%
Bitcoin Up or Down on May 22? May 22 $3,573 +$140 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down on May 21? May 21 $5,644 +$383 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down on May 17? May 17 $3,939 −$191 -5%
Bitcoin Up or Down on May 11? May 11 $1,443 +$148 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down on May 10? May 11 $920 +$404 +44%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 10, 1:25AM-1:30AM ET May 10 $21 +$11 +55%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 10, 12:40AM-12:45AM ET May 10 $21 +$12 +58%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 10, 12:35AM-12:40AM ET May 10 $20 +$8 +40%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 10, 12:30AM-12:35AM ET May 10 $601 +$8 +1%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 10, 12:20AM-12:25AM ET May 10 $8 +$15 +191%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 9, 11:40PM-11:45PM ET May 10 $21 +$22 +105%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 9, 11:30PM-11:35PM ET May 10 $101 −$101 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down on June 19? BUY Up 56¢ $56 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down on June 19? BUY Up 56¢ $6 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down on June 19? BUY Up 61¢ $1,316 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down on June 19? BUY Up 61¢ $6 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down on June 19? BUY Up 61¢ $3,310 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down on June 19? BUY Up 67¢ $1,879 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down on June 19? BUY Up 68¢ $59 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down on June 19? BUY Up 68¢ $376 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down on June 19? BUY Up 66¢ $3,534 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down on June 19? BUY Up 68¢ $281 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down on June 19? BUY Up 66¢ $435 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down on June 19? BUY Up 61¢ $294 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down on June 19? BUY Up 64¢ $17 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down on June 19? BUY Up 64¢ $13 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down on June 19? BUY Up 64¢ $204 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down on June 19? BUY Up 61¢ $113 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down on June 19? BUY Up 54¢ $385 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down on June 19? BUY Up 57¢ $1,485 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down on June 19? BUY Up 57¢ $235 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down on June 19? BUY Up 55¢ $667 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down on June 19? BUY Up 52¢ $263 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down on June 19? BUY Up 46¢ $138 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down on June 19? BUY Up 46¢ $81 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down on June 19? SELL Up 69¢ $0 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down on June 19? SELL Up 71¢ $755 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down on June 19? SELL Up 71¢ $12 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down on June 19? SELL Up 71¢ $36 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down on June 19? SELL Up 71¢ $1,228 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down on June 19? BUY Up 67¢ $10 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down on June 19? BUY Up 67¢ $1,950 5h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $16,349.13 · official $16,349.13 (match) · 740 history records