Wallet analysis

2026-06-16T15:36:32+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
0E 0x0e3a…55ba sports 113 markets active 14h ago coverage 5d
BOTnot copyable sports specialist⚠ High turnover
✗ bot/MM pace (254 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$32,801 (-10%) realized −$32,801 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +40% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -3% what you keep after slip
Net edge-3%after slip
Net WR24%break-even
Win rate69%77W / 35L
Whale WR68%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$2,987per market
Trades / day253.9pace
Fees−$2,297est.
Kalshi-fit80%portable
Net worth$18now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 5d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 79% −$12,681
other 21% −$20,442
crypto 0% +$94
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (254 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +24%
net ROI/market (all)+26.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 112 +40.1% +26.8% 69% 24% -18.4%
≤30d 112 +40.1% +26.8% 69% 24% -18.4%
≤90d 112 +40.1% +26.8% 69% 24% -18.4%
all 112 +40.1% +26.8% 69% 24% -18.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover253.9 tr/day
realistic slip~18%
edge survives to15%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal +26.8% 24% -18.4%
10% +14.6% 20% -26.2%
15% ← realistic here +3.6% 19% -33.3%
20% -6.6% 16% -39.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 23% · top 2 46% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -10% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
65% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +40% · $-wt -10% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 68% (≥$1,946) strong on big bets
Persistence
early +72% → late +8% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
11.4 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$912 vs −$2,950 · ×0.31 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.68 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $700 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

5d coverage
Net worth$18
Realized−$32,801
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)69%
Wins / losses77 / 35
Whale WR (big bets)68%
Est. fees paid−$2,297
Open positions1
Markets (closed)112 / 113
History coverage5d
Avg bet$2,987
Trades / day253.9
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit80%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 112 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Canada advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 83¢ 84¢ $17 $18 +$0 (+1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 7 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: Both Teams to Score Jun 16 $565 +$780 +138%
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: 1st Half O/U 2.5 Jun 16 $5,261 +$239 +4%
Will Londrina EC win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $33 +$1 +3%
Will Criciúma EC win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $68 +$3 +5%
Criciúma EC vs. Ceará SC: Both Teams to Score Jun 16 $135 $0 +0%
Londrina EC vs. Avaí FC: O/U 4.5 Jun 16 $322 +$3 +1%
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $1,946 +$126 +6%
Will Avaí FC win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $8 −$7 -97%
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: 2nd Half O/U 5.5 Total Corners Jun 16 $218 +$2 +1%
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: Saudi Arabia 1st Half O/U 0.5 Jun 16 $435 +$4 +1%
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: Saudi Arabia O/U 4.5 Corners Jun 16 $10 −$10 -97%
Saudi Arabia leading at halftime? Jun 15 $50 −$50 -100%
Belgium vs. Egypt: Both Teams to Score Jun 15 $4,978 +$5,182 +104%
Belgium vs. Egypt: 1st Half O/U 3.5 Total Corners Jun 15 $287 +$3 +1%
Belgium vs. Egypt: Belgium O/U 0.5 Jun 15 $3,996 +$40 +1%
Belgium vs. Egypt: O/U 2.5 Jun 15 $118 −$118 -100%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 0.5 Jun 15 $1,047 −$47 -4%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 9.5 Total Corners Jun 15 $879 +$9 +1%
Egypt leading at halftime? Jun 15 $18,786 −$18,786 -100%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 8.5 Total Corners Jun 15 $2,468 +$25 +1%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 10.5 Total Corners Jun 15 $688 +$7 +1%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: 1st Half O/U 0.5 Jun 15 $27 −$27 -100%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: Both Teams to Score Jun 15 $8,923 −$8,860 -99%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: Draw at halftime? Jun 15 $2,828 −$2,828 -100%
Los Angeles Sparks vs. Seattle Storm: O/U 170.5 Jun 15 $3 −$3 -100%
Australia vs. Türkiye: Türkiye O/U 0.5 Jun 15 $24 −$24 -100%
Netherlands to score first vs. Japan? Jun 15 $41 −$41 -100%
Viktor Gyökeres: 4+ shots Jun 15 $0 +$30 +9900%
Sweden vs. Tunisia: O/U 4.5 Jun 15 $675 +$1,025 +152%
Viktor Gyökeres: 1+ goals Jun 15 $158 +$2 +1%
Sweden vs. Tunisia: Sweden O/U 2.5 Jun 15 $8,360 +$112 +1%
Sweden vs. Tunisia: O/U 7.5 Total Corners Jun 15 $1,156 +$12 +1%
Sweden vs. Tunisia: O/U 8.5 Total Corners Jun 15 $37 $0 +1%
Tani Oluwaseyi: 3+ shots Jun 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $21 −$21 -100%
Spurs vs. Knicks: O/U 219.5 Jun 15 $22 −$22 -100%
Spurs vs. Knicks: O/U 220.5 Jun 15 $35 −$35 -100%
Indiana Fever vs. Connecticut Sun: O/U 169.5 Jun 15 $25 −$25 -100%
Australia vs. Türkiye: Both Teams to Score Jun 15 $230 −$230 -100%
Spurs vs. Knicks Jun 15 $311 −$311 -100%
Will Australia win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $1,333 −$1,333 -100%
Will Málaga CF vs. UD Almería end in a draw? Jun 15 $8,420 −$8,420 -100%
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 10.5 Total Corners Jun 15 $5,595 −$5,595 -100%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $106 +$94 +89%
Netherlands vs. Japan: O/U 4.5 Jun 14 $220 +$13 +6%
Netherlands vs. Japan: Both Teams to Score Jun 14 $19,231 +$15,791 +82%
Netherlands vs. Japan: Netherlands O/U 4.5 Corners Jun 14 $8 $0 +1%
Netherlands vs. Japan: O/U 8.5 Total Corners Jun 14 $2,145 +$22 +1%
Will Curaçao win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $43,014 +$898 +2%
Spread: Germany (-4.5) Jun 14 $4,950 +$50 +1%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Criciúma EC win on 2026-06-15? BUY No 95¢ $68 13h
Criciúma EC vs. Ceará SC: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 100¢ $135 13h
Will Londrina EC win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 97¢ $33 13h
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: 1st Half O/U 2.5 BUY Under 96¢ $4,790 13h
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: 1st Half O/U 2.5 BUY Under 94¢ $471 13h
Londrina EC vs. Avaí FC: O/U 4.5 BUY Over 99¢ $11 13h
Will Avaí FC win on 2026-06-15? SELL Yes 1¢ $0 13h
Londrina EC vs. Avaí FC: O/U 4.5 BUY Over 99¢ $312 13h
Will Avaí FC win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 31¢ $8 13h
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 42¢ $1 14h
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 42¢ $1 14h
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 42¢ $1 14h
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 42¢ $1 14h
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 42¢ $11 14h
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 42¢ $1 14h
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 42¢ $1 14h
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 42¢ $1 14h
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 42¢ $1 14h
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 42¢ $4 14h
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 42¢ $1 14h
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 42¢ $1 14h
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 42¢ $1 14h
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 42¢ $1 14h
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 42¢ $1 14h
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 42¢ $1 14h
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 42¢ $1 14h
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 42¢ $1 14h
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 42¢ $1 14h
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 42¢ $2 14h
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 42¢ $14 14h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $17.59 · official $17.59 (match) · 1474 history records