Wallet analysis

2026-06-19T17:17:08+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
0E 0x0e3a…33c3 other 142 markets active 2h ago coverage 108d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL −$63 (-0%) realized −$63 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -14% what you keep after slip
Net edge-14%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate11%16W / 125L
Whale WR0%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$163per market
Trades / day5.1pace
Fees−$2est.
Kalshi-fit72%portable
Net worth$48now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$6
7 days−$18
14 days−$24
30 days−$42
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
politics 32% −$19
other 23% −$33
sports 19% −$7
crypto 10% −$6
culture 6% −$4
world 4% −$4
economics 4% −$4
finance 1% −$1
tech 0% −$4
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-10.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 20 -0.7% -10.2% 5% 0% -10.0%
≤30d 61 -0.8% -10.3% 5% 0% -10.0%
≤90d 117 -0.6% -10.0% 8% 0% -9.9%
all 141 -0.5% -10.0% 11% 0% -9.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover5.1 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -10.0% 0% -9.8%
10% -18.6% 0% -18.5%
15% -26.5% 0% -26.4%
20% -33.7% 0% -33.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 30% · top 2 57% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -1% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 0% (≥$500) big bets weaker
Persistence
early -0% → late -1% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.3 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$1 · ×0.84 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.11 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

108d coverage
Net worth$48
Realized−$63
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)11%
Wins / losses16 / 125
Whale WR (big bets)0%
Est. fees paid−$2
Open positions1
Markets (closed)141 / 142
History coverage108d
Avg bet$163
Trades / day5.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit72%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 141 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Jon Stewart win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? No 97¢ 97¢ $49 $48 −$0 (-0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Dominique de Villepin win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 19 $178 $0 -0%
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 19 $147 $0 -0%
Will the US confirm that aliens exist by September 30? Jun 19 $178 −$2 -1%
Will Max Verstappen be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 18 $170 −$1 -0%
Will Japan reach the 2026 FIFA World Cup final? Jun 18 $83 $0 -0%
Will Ivory Coast reach the Semifinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 18 $43 −$1 -3%
Will María Corina Machado be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? Jun 17 $200 −$1 -1%
Will 2 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Jun 17 $158 −$3 -2%
Will Jon Ossoff win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 17 $116 −$1 -1%
Will Sweden reach the Semifinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 16 $39 −$1 -2%
Will Josh Shapiro win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 16 $406 −$1 -0%
Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027? Jun 16 $55 −$1 -2%
Will Ron DeSantis win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 15 $919 −$2 -0%
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $120 by end of June? Jun 15 $42 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $10,000 by December 31, 2026? Jun 14 $290 −$1 -0%
Will Tamim bin Hamad Al Thani win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 13 $57 $0 -1%
Will Camilo Santana win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Jun 13 $50 $0 -0%
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $115 by end of June? Jun 13 $65 $0 -0%
Will David Lisnard win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 13 $292 −$1 -0%
Will the Chicago Bears win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 12 $106 $0 -0%
Will Falcons win IEM Cologne Major 2026? Jun 12 $66 −$1 -2%
Will Mohammad-Bagher Ghalibaf be head of state in Iran end of 2026? Jun 12 $52 $0 -0%
Will the Denver Broncos win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 11 $112 $0 -0%
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 09 $440 $0 -0%
Will Keiko Fujimori win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? Jun 09 $55 −$1 -2%
Will Ferrari be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? Jun 09 $42 $0 -0%
Will McLaren be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? Jun 07 $9 $0 -0%
Will Bitcoin reach $80,000 in June? Jun 07 $51 −$1 -1%
Will a player representing Brazil be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FI Jun 06 $57 −$1 -2%
Will Donald Trump win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 06 $451 −$1 -0%
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 06 $51 $0 -1%
Will Pope Leo XIV win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 06 $257 $0 +0%
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $1.6T? Jun 05 $46 −$3 -6%
Will MOUZ win IEM Cologne Major 2026? Jun 05 $47 $0 -0%
Will FURIA win IEM Cologne Major 2026? Jun 04 $46 $0 -0%
Will Belgium reach the 2026 FIFA World Cup final? Jun 04 $5 $0 -2%
Will the Detroit Lions win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 03 $67 $0 -0%
Will Jon Ossoff win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 03 $360 −$1 -0%
Will Bitcoin reach $130,000 by December 31, 2026? Jun 03 $45 −$1 -2%
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 03 $48 $0 -0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $52,500 in June? Jun 02 $60 −$2 -3%
Will Angela Rayner be the next Prime Minister of the United Kingdom in Jun 02 $40 $0 -0%
Will Ronaldo Caiado win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Jun 01 $52 $0 -0%
Will Thomas Massie win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 01 $61 $0 -0%
Will Fernando Haddad win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Jun 01 $97 −$1 -1%
Will Raphaël Glucksmann win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 01 $55 $0 -0%
Will Steve Hilton win the California Governor Election in 2026? May 31 $160 −$2 -1%
Will Lando Norris be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 31 $346 $0 -0%
Will Paloma Valencia win the 2026 Colombian presidential election? May 30 $16 $0 +0%
Will Romeu Zema win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? May 30 $125 $0 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Jon Stewart win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 97¢ $49 1h
Will Dominique de Villepin win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 96¢ $66 2h
Will Dominique de Villepin win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 96¢ $66 9h
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 96¢ $46 9h
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 96¢ $46 15h
Will the US confirm that aliens exist by September 30? SELL No 95¢ $59 16h
Will the US confirm that aliens exist by September 30? BUY No 95¢ $59 23h
Will Max Verstappen be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 98¢ $63 23h
Will Max Verstappen be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 98¢ $63 28h
Will Japan reach the 2026 FIFA World Cup final? SELL No 95¢ $39 29h
Will Japan reach the 2026 FIFA World Cup final? BUY No 95¢ $39 36h
Will Ivory Coast reach the Semifinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 93¢ $41 37h
Will Ivory Coast reach the Semifinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 95¢ $43 45h
Will María Corina Machado be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? SELL No 96¢ $44 45h
Will María Corina Machado be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? BUY No 97¢ $44 2d
Will 2 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? SELL No 93¢ $50 2d
Will 2 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? BUY No 94¢ $51 2d
Will Jon Ossoff win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 95¢ $45 2d
Will Jon Ossoff win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 96¢ $46 2d
Will Sweden reach the Semifinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 93¢ $38 2d
Will Sweden reach the Semifinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 95¢ $39 3d
Will Josh Shapiro win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 97¢ $45 3d
Will Josh Shapiro win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 97¢ $45 3d
Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027? SELL No 90¢ $54 3d
Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027? BUY No 91¢ $55 3d
Will María Corina Machado be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? SELL No 96¢ $58 3d
Will María Corina Machado be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? BUY No 97¢ $58 3d
Will Ron DeSantis win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 97¢ $54 4d
Will Ron DeSantis win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 97¢ $54 4d
Will Japan reach the 2026 FIFA World Cup final? SELL No 95¢ $43 4d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $48.43 · official $48.43 (match) · 605 history records