Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T11:38:51+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
0E 0x0e37…fdab world 75 markets active 11h ago coverage 334d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL −$24 (-1%) realized −$24 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -2% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -11% what you keep after slip
Net edge-11%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate16%12W / 62L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$33per market
Trades / day0.8pace
Fees−$2est.
Kalshi-fit72%portable
Net worth$1now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$0
7 days−$5
14 days−$8
30 days−$21
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
politics 35% $0
world 27% −$23
other 22% $0
sports 9% −$1
crypto 3% $0
finance 2% $0
economics 2% $0
culture 1% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-11.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 7 -2.0% -11.3% 0% 0% -11.9%
≤30d 23 -3.3% -12.5% 22% 0% -13.0%
≤90d 63 -1.8% -11.1% 17% 0% -10.5%
all 74 -1.7% -11.0% 16% 0% -10.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.8 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -11.0% 0% -10.4%
10% -19.5% 0% -19.0%
15% -27.3% 0% -26.8%
20% -34.4% 0% -34.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 36% · top 2 56% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
92% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -2% · $-wt -1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -0% → late -3% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.7 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$1 · ×0.24 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.08 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

334d coverage
Net worth$1
Realized−$24
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)16%
Wins / losses12 / 62
Est. fees paid−$2
Open positions1
Markets (closed)74 / 75
History coverage334d
Avg bet$33
Trades / day0.8
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit72%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 74 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Jon Stewart win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? No 98¢ 98¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by June 30, 2026? Jun 17 $12 $0 -0%
Will the U.S. invade Cuba in 2026? Jun 15 $12 $0 +0%
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 14 $31 −$4 -12%
Netanyahu out by June 30? Jun 14 $17 $0 +0%
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia Jun 13 $101 −$1 -1%
Will Trump agree to unfreeze Iranian assets by June 30? Jun 11 $17 $0 +0%
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by July 31, 2026? Jun 10 $5 $0 +0%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 09 $30 +$1 +3%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 30? Jun 09 $15 $0 +0%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? Jun 04 $14 −$4 -29%
US strike on Cuba by December 31? Jun 02 $21 $0 +0%
Iran leadership change by June 30? May 30 $19 $0 +0%
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? May 30 $39 −$5 -13%
US-Iran nuclear deal by May 31? May 29 $36 −$6 -16%
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? May 28 $25 $0 -1%
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by May 31? May 24 $1 $0 -5%
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? May 24 $2 $0 +10%
Iran leadership change by May 31? May 23 $28 $0 +0%
Will Trump agree to Iranian transit fees in the Strait of Hormuz by Ma May 21 $28 $0 +0%
Israel closes its airspace by May 31? May 21 $29 −$2 -5%
Will Masoud Pezeshkian be head of state in Iran end of 2026? May 21 $1 $0 -7%
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? May 20 $32 −$1 -3%
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by May 31, 2026? May 18 $31 $0 +1%
Will New People (NL) gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamen May 18 $33 $0 -0%
Will Mohammed bin Salman cease to be the de facto leader of Saudi Arab May 17 $36 $0 -0%
Greece x Turkey military engagement by June 30? May 14 $1 $0 -3%
Will the San Antonio Spurs win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 27 $135 $0 -0%
Will Joao Fonseca win the 2026 Men's French Open? Apr 26 $63 $0 -0%
Will the Carolina Panthers win the 2027 NFL league championship? Apr 25 $32 $0 +0%
Will the Los Angeles Lakers win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 25 $7 $0 +0%
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 25 $32 $0 -0%
Will the Iranian regime fall by May 31? Apr 24 $2 $0 +0%
Will Atletico Madrid win the 2025–26 Champions League? Apr 24 $34 $0 -0%
Will Jon Ossoff win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 23 $35 $0 +0%
Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino win the 2026 Peruvian presidential elect Apr 23 $73 $0 -0%
Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by December 31? Apr 21 $1 $0 -36%
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 14 $36 $0 -0%
Will Tucker Carlson win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Apr 14 $102 $0 -0%
Will FC Cincinnati win the 2026 MLS Cup? Apr 13 $33 $0 -0%
Will Ron DeSantis win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Apr 08 $30 $0 +0%
Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 08 $29 $0 -0%
Will Andy Beshear win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 07 $88 $0 +0%
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 07 $30 $0 +0%
Will Andy Beshear win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Apr 06 $93 $0 +0%
Will Ro Khanna win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 05 $31 $0 -0%
Will the Iranian regime fall by April 30? Apr 05 $56 $0 -0%
Will J.D. Vance win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Apr 05 $68 $0 +0%
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 04 $24 $0 +0%
Will Trump visit China by April 30? Apr 04 $34 $0 -0%
Will J.B. Pritzker win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Mar 31 $105 $0 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by June 30, 2026? SELL No 95¢ $1 10h
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by June 30, 2026? SELL No 95¢ $11 10h
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by June 30, 2026? BUY No 96¢ $12 10h
Will the U.S. invade Cuba in 2026? SELL No 76¢ $12 47h
Will the U.S. invade Cuba in 2026? BUY No 76¢ $12 2d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL No 66¢ $12 2d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY No 85¢ $15 2d
Netanyahu out by June 30? SELL No 99¢ $17 3d
Netanyahu out by June 30? BUY No 99¢ $17 3d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL No 81¢ $7 3d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL No 81¢ $8 3d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY No 84¢ $16 3d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia SELL Yes 59¢ $5 4d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia SELL Yes 59¢ $11 4d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia BUY Yes 58¢ $16 4d
Will Trump agree to unfreeze Iranian assets by June 30? SELL No 83¢ $17 6d
Will Trump agree to unfreeze Iranian assets by June 30? BUY No 83¢ $17 6d
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by July 31, 2026? SELL Yes 19¢ $2 6d
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by July 31, 2026? SELL Yes 19¢ $4 6d
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by July 31, 2026? BUY Yes 19¢ $5 6d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra SELL Yes 39¢ $1 7d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra SELL Yes 39¢ $15 7d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra BUY Yes 36¢ $15 7d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra SELL No 67¢ $15 8d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra BUY No 69¢ $15 8d
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 30? SELL No 58¢ $15 8d
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 30? BUY No 58¢ $15 8d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? SELL Yes 15¢ $10 13d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? BUY Yes 21¢ $8 14d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? BUY Yes 21¢ $6 14d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.66 · official $0.00 (match) · 269 history records