Wallet analysis

2026-06-29T12:23:17+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

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score
0E 0x0e2c…359f sports 921 markets active 2h ago coverage 92d ⚠
TRAPdo not copy sports specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 91d only
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL −$130 (-1%) realized −$76 · open −$54
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -5% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -21% what you keep after slip
Net edge-21%after slip
Net WR31%break-even
Win rate56%512W / 404L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$17per market
Trades / day19.6pace
Fees−$243est.
Kalshi-fit99%portable
Net worth$205now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$3
7 days−$114
14 days−$129
30 days−$104
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 96% −$260
crypto 4% −$2
other 0% −$20
weather 0% −$3
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +31%
net ROI/market (all)-14.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 29 -16.6% -24.5% 55% 34% -25.6%
≤30d 230 -4.3% -13.4% 55% 40% -10.7%
≤90d 750 -7.2% -16.0% 50% 35% -10.6%
all 916 -5.4% -14.4% 56% 31% -10.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover19.6 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -14.4% 31% -10.8%
10% -22.6% 23% -19.3%
15% -30.1% 20% -27.1%
20% -36.9% 18% -34.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 5% · top 2 9% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
44% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -5% · $-wt -2% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -4% → late -7% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.5 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$6 vs −$8 · ×0.73 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.93 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

92d coverage
Net worth$205
Realized−$76
Unrealized−$54
Win rate (resolved)56%
Wins / losses512 / 404
Est. fees paid−$243
Open positions5
Markets (closed)916 / 921
History coverage92d ⚠
Avg bet$17
Trades / day19.6
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit99%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 5 History 916 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Set Handicap: Humbert (-2.5) vs Bergs (+2.5) Bergs 75¢ 74¢ $76 $75 −$1 (-1%)
Humbert vs. Bergs: Set 1 Games O/U 10.5 Under 70¢ 60¢ $51 $44 −$7 (-14%)
Humbert vs. Bergs: Set 1 Games O/U 8.5 Over 86¢ 66¢ $50 $38 −$12 (-24%)
Set Handicap: Rublev (-2.5) vs Safiullin (+2.5) Safiullin 97¢ 94¢ $33 $32 −$1 (-3%)
Humbert vs. Bergs: Set 1 Games O/U 9.5 Under 86¢ 28¢ $50 $17 −$34 (-67%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 109 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Set Handicap: Taverna (-1.5) vs Serna (+1.5) Jun 27 $76 −$3 -3%
Piracicaba: Joaquin Aguilar vs Matheus Pucinelli de Almeida Jun 26 $102 −$100 -98%
Marozsan vs. Fokina: Match O/U 21.5 Jun 26 $3 $0 +4%
Aboian vs. Casanova: Set 1 Games O/U 8.5 Jun 26 $29 +$1 +4%
Sweeny vs. Blanch: Match O/U 23.5 Jun 25 $51 −$2 -3%
Sweeny vs. Blanch: Match O/U 22.5 Jun 25 $51 −$2 -3%
Set Handicap: Quinn (-1.5) vs Kopriva (+1.5) Jun 25 $75 +$3 +4%
Targu Mures: Andrej Nedic vs Sebastian Gima Jun 24 $10 +$1 +10%
Targu Mures: Sascha Gueymard-Wayenburg vs Max Alcala Gurri Jun 24 $5 +$1 +11%
Burruchaga vs. Fery: Match O/U 21.5 Jun 23 $5 −$5 -100%
Crawley vs. Sakatsume: Match O/U 21.5 Jun 23 $5 −$5 -100%
Targu Mures: Elmer Moeller vs Luca Potenza Jun 23 $50 +$6 +12%
Bejlek vs. Siegemund: Match O/U 22.5 Jun 23 $5 −$5 -100%
Tjen vs. McNally: Match O/U 21.5 Jun 23 $5 −$5 -100%
Arnaldi vs. Hussey: Match O/U 23.5 Jun 23 $5 +$3 +67%
Starodubtseva vs. Zakharova: Match O/U 21.5 Jun 23 $5 −$5 -100%
Polmans vs. Dimitrov: Match O/U 22.5 Jun 23 $5 +$3 +64%
Sonego vs. Kecmanovic: Match O/U 23.5 Jun 23 $10 −$10 -99%
Marozsan vs. Tabilo: Match O/U 21.5 Jun 23 $5 +$4 +86%
Dzumhur vs. Kopriva: Match O/U 22.5 Jun 23 $5 +$5 +92%
Piraino vs. Angelini: Match O/U 21.5 Jun 23 $5 −$5 -100%
Bergs vs. Munar: Match O/U 23.5 Jun 22 $5 +$4 +76%
McDonald vs. Alves: Match O/U 22.5 Jun 22 $50 +$2 +3%
McDonald vs. Alves: Match O/U 23.5 Jun 22 $8 $0 +4%
Kessler vs. Kasatkina: Match O/U 22.5 Jun 22 $5 +$3 +67%
Bad Homburg Open: Venus Williams vs Irina-Camelia Begu Jun 22 $5 +$1 +13%
Ruzic vs. Marcinko: Match O/U 22.5 Jun 22 $5 −$5 -100%
Milev vs. Milic: Match O/U 21.5 Jun 22 $5 −$5 -100%
Set Handicap: Diallo (-1.5) vs Atmane (+1.5) Jun 22 $50 +$6 +12%
Snigur vs. Kalinina: Match O/U 23.5 Jun 22 $5 −$5 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 5:25PM-5:30PM ET Jun 21 $5 $0 +6%
Mallorca Championships: Yannick Hanfmann vs Adolfo Vallejo Jun 21 $5 +$1 +11%
Hanfmann vs. Vallejo: Match O/U 23.5 Jun 21 $4 −$4 -100%
Wang vs. Sherif: Match O/U 22.5 Jun 21 $5 +$4 +79%
Brescia: Xiyu Wang vs Mayar Sherif Jun 21 $5 $0 +10%
Mallorca Championships: Mariano Navone vs Lorenzo Sonego Jun 21 $5 −$3 -58%
Cerundolo vs. Paul: Match O/U 23.5 Jun 21 $5 −$5 -100%
HSBC Championships: Francisco Cerundolo vs Tommy Paul Jun 21 $5 −$3 -60%
Hussey vs. Trungelliti: Match O/U 23.5 Jun 21 $4 +$2 +67%
Bad Homburg Open: Katie Boulter vs Leylah Fernandez Jun 21 $5 $0 +8%
Borges vs. Mannarino: Match O/U 22.5 Jun 21 $5 +$3 +65%
Sierra vs. Blinkova: Match O/U 22.5 Jun 21 $3 −$3 -100%
Sonmez vs. Jacquemot: Match O/U 21.5 Jun 21 $5 −$5 -100%
Sonmez vs. Jacquemot: Match O/U 22.5 Jun 21 $9 −$9 -98%
Bad Homburg Open: Liudmila Samsonova vs Katerina Siniakova Jun 21 $5 +$1 +12%
Samsonova vs. Siniakova: Match O/U 22.5 Jun 21 $5 +$4 +70%
Parry vs. Begu: Match O/U 22.5 Jun 21 $10 −$10 -99%
Giron vs. Broom: Match O/U 22.5 Jun 20 $5 −$5 -100%
Lexus Eastbourne Open, Qualification: Petra Marcinko vs Simona Waltert Jun 20 $51 +$9 +17%
Halle Open: Daniel Altmaier vs Frances Tiafoe Jun 20 $10 +$1 +13%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Set Handicap: Rublev (-2.5) vs Safiullin (+2.5) BUY Safiullin 97¢ $33 1h
Humbert vs. Bergs: Set 1 Games O/U 9.5 BUY Under 86¢ $50 25h
Humbert vs. Bergs: Set 1 Games O/U 10.5 BUY Under 70¢ $51 25h
Humbert vs. Bergs: Set 1 Games O/U 8.5 BUY Over 86¢ $50 25h
Set Handicap: Humbert (-2.5) vs Bergs (+2.5) BUY Bergs 75¢ $76 26h
Piracicaba: Joaquin Aguilar vs Matheus Pucinelli de Almeida BUY Joaquin Aguilar 18¢ $102 2d
Marozsan vs. Fokina: Match O/U 21.5 BUY Over 96¢ $3 2d
Set Handicap: Taverna (-1.5) vs Serna (+1.5) BUY Serna 51¢ $76 2d
Aboian vs. Casanova: Set 1 Games O/U 8.5 BUY Under 96¢ $29 2d
Set Handicap: Quinn (-1.5) vs Kopriva (+1.5) BUY Kopriva 96¢ $75 4d
Targu Mures: Andrej Nedic vs Sebastian Gima SELL Andrej Nedic 97¢ $5 4d
Targu Mures: Andrej Nedic vs Sebastian Gima BUY Andrej Nedic 89¢ $5 4d
Targu Mures: Andrej Nedic vs Sebastian Gima BUY Andrej Nedic 90¢ $5 4d
Sweeny vs. Blanch: Match O/U 23.5 BUY Over 51¢ $51 4d
Sweeny vs. Blanch: Match O/U 22.5 BUY Over 51¢ $51 4d
Targu Mures: Sascha Gueymard-Wayenburg vs Max Alcala Gurri SELL Max Alcala Gurri 98¢ $6 4d
Targu Mures: Sascha Gueymard-Wayenburg vs Max Alcala Gurri BUY Max Alcala Gurri 88¢ $5 4d
Burruchaga vs. Fery: Match O/U 21.5 BUY Under 60¢ $5 5d
Bejlek vs. Siegemund: Match O/U 22.5 BUY Under 63¢ $5 5d
Targu Mures: Elmer Moeller vs Luca Potenza BUY Elmer Moeller 89¢ $5 5d
Targu Mures: Elmer Moeller vs Luca Potenza BUY Elmer Moeller 89¢ $5 5d
Targu Mures: Elmer Moeller vs Luca Potenza BUY Elmer Moeller 89¢ $5 5d
Targu Mures: Elmer Moeller vs Luca Potenza BUY Elmer Moeller 89¢ $5 5d
Targu Mures: Elmer Moeller vs Luca Potenza BUY Elmer Moeller 89¢ $5 5d
Targu Mures: Elmer Moeller vs Luca Potenza BUY Elmer Moeller 89¢ $5 5d
Targu Mures: Elmer Moeller vs Luca Potenza BUY Elmer Moeller 89¢ $5 5d
Targu Mures: Elmer Moeller vs Luca Potenza BUY Elmer Moeller 89¢ $5 5d
Targu Mures: Elmer Moeller vs Luca Potenza BUY Elmer Moeller 89¢ $5 5d
Targu Mures: Elmer Moeller vs Luca Potenza BUY Elmer Moeller 89¢ $5 5d
Arnaldi vs. Hussey: Match O/U 23.5 BUY Under 60¢ $5 5d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $205.27 · official $205.28 (match) · 3500 history records