Wallet analysis

2026-06-23T08:13:15+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
0E 0x0e28…5d29 world 42 markets active 2h ago coverage 306d
TRAPdo not copy world specialist
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL −$3 (-0%) realized −$3 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -3% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -12% what you keep after slip
Net edge-12%after slip
Net WR2%break-even
Win rate34%14W / 27L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$24per market
Trades / day0.4pace
Kalshi-fit76%portable
Net worth$39now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$2
7 days−$0
14 days−$2
30 days−$2
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 70% −$6
other 18% +$2
politics 5% $0
crypto 3% $0
sports 1% $0
tech 2% $0
culture 1% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +2%
net ROI/market (all)-12.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 9 +0.3% -9.3% 44% 11% -9.7%
≤30d 24 -1.0% -10.4% 38% 4% -9.8%
≤90d 24 -1.0% -10.4% 38% 4% -9.8%
all 41 -2.9% -12.2% 34% 2% -9.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.4 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -12.2% 2% -9.8%
10% -20.6% 0% -18.4%
15% -28.3% 0% -26.3%
20% -35.3% 0% -33.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 27% · top 2 50% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
93% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -3% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -5% → late -1% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.6 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$1 · ×0.64 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.69 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

306d coverage
Net worth$39
Realized−$3
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)34%
Wins / losses14 / 27
Open positions1
Markets (closed)41 / 42
History coverage306d
Avg bet$24
Trades / day0.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit76%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 41 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? No 90¢ 90¢ $39 $39 +$0 (+0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Israeli parliament dissolved by June 30? Jun 22 $13 +$2 +12%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? Jun 20 $3 $0 +0%
Will Ukraine recapture Crimean territory by December 31, 2026? Jun 20 $3 $0 +0%
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 31? Jun 20 $19 $0 +0%
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? Jun 19 $25 −$3 -10%
Cuban regime falls in 2026? Jun 19 $54 +$1 +1%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? Jun 19 $52 $0 +0%
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 18 $41 $0 +0%
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by Jun 16 $39 $0 -0%
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? Jun 15 $36 $0 -1%
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? Jun 15 $35 $0 -0%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 14 $8 −$3 -32%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? Jun 14 $14 +$1 +6%
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 14 $73 $0 +0%
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? Jun 13 $15 $0 +1%
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? Jun 12 $44 $0 +0%
Iran Nuke before 2027? Jun 11 $40 $0 -0%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? Jun 10 $40 $0 +1%
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30? Jun 10 $1 $0 +0%
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? Jun 09 $35 $0 +0%
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia Jun 08 $40 $0 +0%
Iran leadership change by June 30? Jun 07 $39 $0 +0%
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 05 $31 $0 +0%
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? Jun 05 $32 $0 -1%
Will Tulsi Gabbard win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Dec 17 $26 $0 +2%
Will the Minnesota Timberwolves win the 2026 NBA Finals? Dec 16 $15 $0 +1%
Will the Toronto Blue Jays win the 2025 World Series? Nov 14 $13 $0 +3%
Israel x Hamas ceasefire by September 30? Oct 02 $3 −$3 -100%
Will the Houston Astros win the 2025 World Series? Sep 29 $28 +$2 +6%
Will the Philadelphia Phillies win the 2025 World Series? Sep 12 $29 $0 -1%
Will Zhipu AI have a #1 AI model this year? Sep 02 $15 $0 +0%
Will the Los Angeles Chargers win Super Bowl 2026? Sep 02 $15 $0 +0%
Will Trump say "Crypto" or "Bitcoin" during events with Polish preside Sep 02 $15 $0 -0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $20,000 by December 31, 2025? Sep 02 $13 $0 -0%
Will the Washington Commanders win Super Bowl 2026? Aug 25 $3 $0 +0%
Will Steve Bannon win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Aug 25 $15 $0 +0%
Will María Corina Machado win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2025? Aug 24 $15 $0 -0%
Will Jon Ossoff win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Aug 23 $5 $0 +0%
Will Ben Shelton win the 2025 US Open? Aug 23 $11 $0 +0%
Will Daniil Medvedev win the 2025 US Open? Aug 23 $11 $0 +0%
Will the New York Mets win the 2025 World Series? Aug 23 $2 $0 -7%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? BUY No 90¢ $39 1h
Israeli parliament dissolved by June 30? SELL Yes 19¢ $15 8h
Israeli parliament dissolved by June 30? BUY Yes 17¢ $2 10h
Israeli parliament dissolved by June 30? BUY Yes 17¢ $11 10h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? SELL Yes 8¢ $3 2d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? BUY Yes 8¢ $3 2d
Will Ukraine recapture Crimean territory by December 31, 2026? SELL Yes 8¢ $3 2d
Will Ukraine recapture Crimean territory by December 31, 2026? BUY Yes 8¢ $0 2d
Will Ukraine recapture Crimean territory by December 31, 2026? BUY Yes 8¢ $3 2d
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 31? SELL Yes 25¢ $19 3d
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 31? BUY Yes 25¢ $19 3d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? SELL Yes 26¢ $18 3d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? SELL Yes 26¢ $4 3d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? BUY Yes 29¢ $13 3d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? BUY Yes 29¢ $12 3d
Cuban regime falls in 2026? SELL Yes 19¢ $13 3d
Cuban regime falls in 2026? BUY Yes 18¢ $5 3d
Cuban regime falls in 2026? BUY Yes 18¢ $4 3d
Cuban regime falls in 2026? BUY Yes 18¢ $4 3d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? SELL Yes 56¢ $38 4d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? BUY Yes 56¢ $38 4d
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 96¢ $41 4d
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 96¢ $41 4d
Cuban regime falls in 2026? SELL No 84¢ $42 5d
Cuban regime falls in 2026? BUY No 84¢ $42 5d
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by SELL No 88¢ $3 6d
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? SELL No 91¢ $35 7d
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? BUY No 92¢ $36 7d
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? SELL No 98¢ $26 7d
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? SELL No 98¢ $9 7d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $38.66 · official $38.64 (match) · 207 history records