Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T17:41:14+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
0E 0x0e28…07c3 sports 13 markets active 1h ago coverage 2d
BOTnot copyable sports specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sampleP/L from Polymarket (history capped)
✗ bot/MM pace (83 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ on-chain reconstruction ≠ official P&L (longshot/capped history)✗ only 2d of captured history — unreliable✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL −$2,613 (-4%) realized −$638 · open −$1,975
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -33% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -53% what you keep after slip
Net edge-53%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate33%4W / 8L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$4,601per market
Trades / day82.6pace
Fees−$348est.
Kalshi-fit90%portable
Net worth$4,702now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 2d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 91% −$9,851
other 9% +$6
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (83 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-39.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 12 -32.8% -39.2% 33% 0% -25.4%
≤30d 12 -32.8% -39.2% 33% 0% -25.4%
≤90d 12 -32.8% -39.2% 33% 0% -25.4%
all 12 -32.8% -39.2% 33% 0% -25.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover82.6 tr/day
realistic slip~18%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -39.2% 0% -25.4%
10% -45.0% 0% -32.5%
15% ← realistic here -50.3% 0% -39.0%
20% -55.2% 0% -45.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 81% · top 2 91% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -18% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -33% · $-wt -18% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -49% → late -16% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
10.2 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$32 vs −$1,333 · ×0.02 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.02 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $700 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

2d coverage
Net worth$4,702
Realized−$638
Unrealized−$1,975
Win rate (resolved)33%
Wins / losses4 / 8
Est. fees paid−$348
Open positions1
Markets (closed)12 / 13
History coverage2d
Avg bet$4,601
Trades / day82.6
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit90%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 12 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
ICC T20 World Cup, Women: South Africa vs Pakistan South Africa 50¢ 92¢ $2,351 $4,326 +$1,975 (+84%)
ICC T20 World Cup, Women: South Africa vs Pakistan Pakistan 50¢ 8¢ $2,351 $376 −$1,975 (-84%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 3 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
ICC T20 World Cup, Women: India vs Netherlands Jun 17 $4,689 +$13 +0%
Halle Open: Hubert Hurkacz vs Daniel Altmaier Jun 17 $5,643 −$2,822 -50%
ODI Series India vs Afghanistan: India vs Afghanistan Jun 17 $5,643 $0 +0%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $5,638 +$6 +0%
ICC T20 World Cup, Women: England vs Ireland Jun 16 $5,530 +$105 +2%
HSBC Championships: Cameron Norrie vs Alejandro Davidovich Fokina Jun 16 $80 $0 +0%
ICC T20 World Cup, Women: New Zealand vs Sri Lanka Jun 16 $5,992 −$504 -8%
HSBC Championships: Jack Pinnington Jones vs Denis Shapovalov Jun 15 $5 −$4 -82%
Halle Open: Flavio Cobolli vs Frances Tiafoe Jun 15 $5,145 −$777 -15%
Halle Open: Nuno Borges vs Felix Auger-Aliassime Jun 15 $11,156 −$1,395 -12%
Halle Open: Nikoloz Basilashvili vs Daniel Altmaier Jun 15 $5,494 −$2,497 -46%
Halle Open: Max Schoenhaus vs Learner Tien Jun 15 $94 +$6 +6%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
ICC T20 World Cup, Women: India vs Netherlands SELL India 100¢ $4,702 30m
ICC T20 World Cup, Women: India vs Netherlands BUY India 100¢ $4,689 1h
Halle Open: Hubert Hurkacz vs Daniel Altmaier SELL Daniel Altmaier 100¢ $4,639 1h
Halle Open: Hubert Hurkacz vs Daniel Altmaier SELL Daniel Altmaier 5¢ $50 3h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? SELL No 0¢ $0 14h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? SELL No 0¢ $0 14h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? SELL No 0¢ $1 14h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? SELL No 0¢ $0 14h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? SELL No 0¢ $0 14h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? SELL No 0¢ $0 14h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? SELL No 0¢ $0 14h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? SELL No 0¢ $0 14h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? SELL No 0¢ $0 14h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? SELL No 0¢ $0 14h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? SELL No 0¢ $0 14h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? SELL No 0¢ $0 14h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? SELL No 0¢ $0 14h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? SELL No 0¢ $0 14h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? SELL No 0¢ $0 14h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? SELL No 0¢ $0 14h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? SELL No 0¢ $1 14h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? SELL No 0¢ $0 14h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? SELL No 0¢ $0 14h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? SELL No 0¢ $0 14h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? SELL No 0¢ $0 14h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? SELL No 0¢ $0 14h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? SELL No 0¢ $0 14h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? SELL No 0¢ $1 14h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? SELL No 0¢ $0 14h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? SELL No 0¢ $0 14h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $4,702.00 · official $4,702.00 (match) · 202 history records