Wallet analysis

2026-06-28T20:16:54+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
0E 0x0e1b…fcca sports 42 markets active 9d ago coverage 509d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$58 (-19%) realized −$55 · open −$3
Gross ROI / mkt -23% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -31% what you keep after slip
Net edge-31%after slip
Net WR39%break-even
Win rate41%17W / 24L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$7per market
Trades / day0.1pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit93%portable
Net worth$1now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days$0
14 days+$2
30 days−$4
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 95% −$49
other 4% −$7
politics 1% −$3
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +39%
net ROI/market (all)-30.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d no closed markets
≤30d 8 -16.0% -24.0% 50% 38% -18.9%
≤90d 15 -34.1% -40.3% 40% 33% -29.1%
all 41 -23.3% -30.6% 41% 39% -25.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.1 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -30.6% 39% -25.9%
10% -37.2% 39% -33.0%
15% -43.3% 32% -39.4%
20% -48.9% 29% -45.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 19% · top 2 29% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -22% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
6% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -23% · $-wt -18% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +8% → late -53% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$6 vs −$7 · ×0.92 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.65 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

509d coverage
Net worth$1
Realized−$55
Unrealized−$3
Win rate (resolved)41%
Wins / losses17 / 24
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions1
Markets (closed)41 / 42
History coverage509d
Avg bet$7
Trades / day0.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit93%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 41 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Trump acquire Greenland before 2027? Yes 21¢ $4 $1 −$3 (-73%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 8 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
St. Louis Cardinals vs. Kansas City Royals Jun 20 $5 +$7 +129%
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? Jun 19 $5 $0 +3%
Kansas City Royals vs. Washington Nationals Jun 17 $5 −$5 -98%
Houston Astros vs. Kansas City Royals Jun 14 $5 −$5 -100%
Houston Astros vs. Kansas City Royals Jun 13 $1 −$1 -100%
Texas Rangers vs. Kansas City Royals Jun 10 $6 +$5 +73%
Kansas City Royals vs. Minnesota Twins Jun 10 $5 +$3 +67%
Kansas City Royals vs. Cincinnati Reds Jun 03 $8 −$8 -100%
Boston Red Sox vs. Kansas City Royals May 19 $5 −$5 -99%
Kansas City Royals vs. Chicago White Sox May 13 $5 −$5 -98%
Cleveland Guardians vs. Kansas City Royals May 07 $1 −$1 -100%
Cleveland Guardians vs. Kansas City Royals May 07 $5 +$2 +35%
Milwaukee Brewers vs. Kansas City Royals Apr 05 $10 −$10 -98%
Kansas City Royals vs. Atlanta Braves Apr 05 $3 −$3 -100%
Milwaukee Brewers vs. Kansas City Royals Apr 05 $11 +$9 +82%
Chiefs vs. Bills Mar 28 $11 −$11 -100%
Bad Bunny wears a dress or skirt at the Big Game? Mar 28 $1 −$1 -100%
Seahawks vs. Patriots Mar 28 $25 −$25 -100%
Chiefs vs. Cowboys Mar 28 $10 −$10 -100%
Eagles vs. Chiefs Mar 28 $10 −$10 -100%
Texans vs. Patriots Mar 28 $7 −$7 -100%
Dodgers vs. Blue Jays Nov 02 $20 +$20 +100%
Commanders vs. Chiefs Oct 28 $20 +$6 +28%
Lions vs. Chiefs Oct 15 $10 +$6 +64%
Ravens vs. Chiefs Sep 29 $5 +$7 +133%
Chiefs vs. Giants Sep 23 $16 +$6 +37%
Chiefs vs. Chargers Sep 14 $10 −$10 -100%
Angels vs. Royals Sep 06 $6 +$4 +82%
Mets vs. Royals Jul 14 $6 +$1 +27%
Royals vs. White Sox Jul 13 $2 −$2 -100%
Royals vs. Cardinals Jun 07 $5 −$5 -100%
Tigers vs. Royals Jun 07 $10 −$4 -36%
Tigers vs. Royals Jun 01 $4 +$6 +156%
Tigers vs. Royals May 31 $10 −$10 -100%
Reds vs. Royals May 29 $5 +$5 +100%
Reds vs. Royals May 28 $5 −$5 -100%
Reds vs. Royals May 27 $5 −$5 -100%
Royals vs. Twins May 26 $5 +$10 +203%
Royals vs. Twins May 25 $5 −$5 -100%
Will the Chiefs win Super Bowl 2025? May 25 $6 −$6 -100%
Bills vs. Chiefs Jan 27 $9 +$6 +63%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
St. Louis Cardinals vs. Kansas City Royals BUY Kansas City Royals 43¢ $5 8d
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 97¢ $5 8d
Kansas City Royals vs. Washington Nationals BUY Kansas City Royals 34¢ $5 11d
Houston Astros vs. Kansas City Royals BUY Kansas City Royals 50¢ $1 14d
Houston Astros vs. Kansas City Royals BUY Kansas City Royals 50¢ $4 14d
Houston Astros vs. Kansas City Royals BUY Kansas City Royals 10¢ $1 15d
Texas Rangers vs. Kansas City Royals BUY Kansas City Royals 91¢ $5 18d
Texas Rangers vs. Kansas City Royals BUY Kansas City Royals 23¢ $1 18d
Kansas City Royals vs. Minnesota Twins BUY Kansas City Royals 59¢ $5 23d
Kansas City Royals vs. Cincinnati Reds BUY Kansas City Royals 78¢ $8 25d
Boston Red Sox vs. Kansas City Royals BUY Kansas City Royals 60¢ $5 39d
Kansas City Royals vs. Chicago White Sox BUY Kansas City Royals 36¢ $5 46d
Cleveland Guardians vs. Kansas City Royals BUY Kansas City Royals 25¢ $1 52d
Cleveland Guardians vs. Kansas City Royals BUY Kansas City Royals 74¢ $5 53d
Milwaukee Brewers vs. Kansas City Royals BUY Kansas City Royals 41¢ $10 84d
Milwaukee Brewers vs. Kansas City Royals BUY Kansas City Royals 50¢ $5 84d
Milwaukee Brewers vs. Kansas City Royals BUY Kansas City Royals 60¢ $6 84d
Kansas City Royals vs. Atlanta Braves BUY Kansas City Royals 51¢ $3 91d
Bad Bunny wears a dress or skirt at the Big Game? BUY Yes 22¢ $1 139d
Seahawks vs. Patriots BUY Patriots 32¢ $25 142d
Will Trump acquire Greenland before 2027? BUY Yes 21¢ $4 160d
Texans vs. Patriots BUY Texans 22¢ $7 160d
Chiefs vs. Cowboys BUY Chiefs 64¢ $10 212d
Dodgers vs. Blue Jays BUY Dodgers 50¢ $20 238d
Chiefs vs. Bills BUY Chiefs 53¢ $11 242d
Commanders vs. Chiefs BUY Chiefs 78¢ $20 243d
Lions vs. Chiefs BUY Chiefs 61¢ $10 258d
Ravens vs. Chiefs BUY Chiefs 43¢ $5 273d
Chiefs vs. Giants BUY Chiefs 73¢ $16 279d
Eagles vs. Chiefs BUY Chiefs 49¢ $10 287d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $1.10 · official $1.10 (match) · 84 history records