Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T04:54:54+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
0E 0x0e1b…be78 sports 43 markets active 1h ago coverage 1d
UNRELIABLEdata unreliable sports specialistFresh edge⚠ High turnover
✗ only 1d of captured history — unreliable✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ net negative once open positions are counted! high turnover
Total PnL −$3 (-2%) realized +$0 · open −$3
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -2% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -24% what you keep after slip
Net edge-24%after slip
Net WR53%break-even
Win rate53%19W / 17L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$4per market
Trades / day40.0pace
Fees−$2est.
Kalshi-fit88%portable
Net worth$28now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 1d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 91% +$7
other 9% −$13
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +53%
net ROI/market (all)-11.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 36 -1.7% -11.1% 53% 53% -7.9%
≤30d 36 -1.7% -11.1% 53% 53% -7.9%
≤90d 36 -1.7% -11.1% 53% 53% -7.9%
all 36 -1.7% -11.1% 53% 53% -7.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover40.0 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -11.1% 53% -7.9%
10% ← realistic here -19.6% 50% -16.7%
15% -27.4% 44% -24.8%
20% -34.5% 36% -32.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 18% · top 2 34% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -2% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -2% · $-wt -2% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -14% → late +10% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$3 vs −$3 · ×0.85 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.95 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

1d coverage
Net worth$28
Realized+$0
Unrealized−$3
Win rate (resolved)53%
Wins / losses19 / 17
Est. fees paid−$2
Open positions7
Markets (closed)36 / 43
History coverage1d
Avg bet$4
Trades / day40.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit88%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 7 History 36 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
UFC Freedom 250: Justin Gaethje vs. Ilia Topuria (Lightweight, Main Card) Ilia Topuria 81¢ 80¢ $12 $12 −$0 (-2%)
Will the Vegas Golden Knights win the 2026 NHL Stanley Cup? No 80¢ 100¢ $4 $5 +$1 (+24%)
Will the Carolina Hurricanes win the 2026 NHL Stanley Cup? Yes 80¢ 100¢ $3 $4 +$1 (+25%)
Counter-Strike: 9z vs TheMongolz (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 9z 39¢ 38¢ $3 $3 −$0 (-1%)
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? No 30¢ 30¢ $3 $3 −$0 (-2%)
Grass Court Championships, Qualification: Diane Parry vs Ella Seidel Ella Seidel 9¢ 8¢ $2 $2 −$0 (-17%)
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? No 5¢ 0¢ $4 $0 −$4 (-99%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 14 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
UFC Freedom 250: Ciryl Gane vs. Alex Pereira (Heavyweight, Main Card) Jun 15 $9 +$9 +97%
Hyperliquid Up or Down - June 15, 12:25AM-12:30AM ET Jun 15 $3 +$2 +70%
UFC Freedom 250: Aiemann Zahabi vs. Sean O'Malley (Bantamweight, Main Jun 15 $7 −$2 -26%
Fight to Go the Distance? Jun 15 $3 −$3 -98%
Hurricanes vs. Golden Knights: O/U 5.5 Jun 15 $9 +$10 +112%
Hurricanes vs. Golden Knights Jun 15 $3 +$3 +86%
Tampa Bay Rays vs. Los Angeles Angels Jun 15 $3 +$3 +86%
UFC Freedom 250: Steve Garcia vs. Diego Lopes (Featherweight, Main Car Jun 14 $9 −$9 -98%
UFC Freedom 250: Kyle Daukaus vs. Bo Nickal (Middleweight, Main Card) Jun 14 $3 −$3 -98%
Spread: Athletics (-3.5) Jun 14 $3 +$2 +60%
LoL: LYON vs Team Liquid - Game 3 Winner Jun 14 $3 −$3 -98%
Chicago Cubs vs. San Francisco Giants Jun 14 $3 +$2 +79%
Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Chicago White Sox: O/U 9.5 Jun 14 $3 +$3 +97%
Netherlands vs. Japan: Both Teams to Score Jun 14 $3 $0 -6%
Seattle Mariners vs. Washington Nationals: O/U 10.5 Jun 14 $3 +$3 +101%
Netherlands vs. Japan: O/U 2.5 Jun 14 $6 −$6 -99%
LoL: Galions vs Eintracht Spandau - Game 3 Winner Jun 14 $4 +$1 +24%
LoL: LYON vs Team Liquid (BO5) - LCS Playoffs Jun 14 $3 −$3 -98%
Will Netherlands vs. Japan end in a draw? Jun 14 $4 −$4 -99%
Spread: Germany (-2.5) Jun 14 $4 +$1 +38%
Spread: Milwaukee Brewers (-3.5) Jun 14 $3 −$3 -98%
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs Vitality (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Sta Jun 14 $4 +$1 +24%
Map Handicap: VIT (-1.5) vs BetBoom Team (+1.5) Jun 14 $6 $0 -5%
Counter-Strike: G2 vs Legacy (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 14 $3 −$3 -98%
St. Louis Cardinals vs. Minnesota Twins Jun 14 $3 −$3 -98%
Colorado Rockies vs. Athletics: O/U 13.5 Jun 14 $3 −$3 -98%
LoL: Top Esports vs Bilibili Gaming (BO5) - LPL Playoffs Jun 14 $3 +$1 +44%
Game Handicap: BLG (-1.5) vs Top Esports (+1.5) Jun 14 $3 +$3 +97%
LoL: Top Esports vs Bilibili Gaming - Game 2 Winner Jun 14 $3 +$2 +48%
Houston Astros vs. Kansas City Royals Jun 14 $3 −$3 -98%
LoL: Top Esports vs Bilibili Gaming - Game 1 Winner Jun 14 $3 +$2 +60%
Exact Score: Qatar 0 - 2 Switzerland? Jun 14 $3 −$5 -195%
Exact Score: Qatar 0 - 3 Switzerland? Jun 14 $3 −$5 -195%
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 14 $3 $0 +14%
Qatar vs. Switzerland: O/U 2.5 Jun 14 $3 +$3 +119%
Detroit Tigers vs. Cleveland Guardians Jun 14 $3 +$3 +119%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Hyperliquid Up or Down - June 15, 12:25AM-12:30AM ET BUY Up 57¢ $3 31m
UFC Freedom 250: Justin Gaethje vs. Ilia Topuria (Lightweight, Main Ca BUY Ilia Topuria 81¢ $4 35m
UFC Freedom 250: Justin Gaethje vs. Ilia Topuria (Lightweight, Main Ca BUY Ilia Topuria 81¢ $4 46m
UFC Freedom 250: Justin Gaethje vs. Ilia Topuria (Lightweight, Main Ca BUY Ilia Topuria 81¢ $4 47m
UFC Freedom 250: Ciryl Gane vs. Alex Pereira (Heavyweight, Main Card) BUY Ciryl Gane 50¢ $3 1h
Fight to Go the Distance? BUY Yes 35¢ $3 1h
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? BUY No 2¢ $2 1h
Counter-Strike: 9z vs TheMongolz (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY 9z 39¢ $3 1h
UFC Freedom 250: Ciryl Gane vs. Alex Pereira (Heavyweight, Main Card) BUY Ciryl Gane 50¢ $3 1h
UFC Freedom 250: Aiemann Zahabi vs. Sean O'Malley (Bantamweight, Main BUY Sean OMalley 78¢ $4 4h
Hurricanes vs. Golden Knights: O/U 5.5 BUY Under 49¢ $3 4h
UFC Freedom 250: Steve Garcia vs. Diego Lopes (Featherweight, Main Car BUY Steve Garcia 43¢ $3 5h
UFC Freedom 250: Kyle Daukaus vs. Bo Nickal (Middleweight, Main Card) BUY Kyle Daukaus 25¢ $3 5h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? BUY No 30¢ $3 6h
LoL: LYON vs Team Liquid - Game 3 Winner BUY Team Liquid 45¢ $3 6h
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? BUY No 50¢ $3 7h
Hurricanes vs. Golden Knights BUY Hurricanes 53¢ $3 7h
Netherlands vs. Japan: Both Teams to Score SELL No 45¢ $3 8h
UFC Freedom 250: Ciryl Gane vs. Alex Pereira (Heavyweight, Main Card) BUY Ciryl Gane 50¢ $3 8h
Netherlands vs. Japan: Both Teams to Score BUY No 46¢ $3 8h
Netherlands vs. Japan: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 53¢ $3 9h
UFC Freedom 250: Steve Garcia vs. Diego Lopes (Featherweight, Main Car BUY Steve Garcia 42¢ $3 9h
LoL: LYON vs Team Liquid (BO5) - LCS Playoffs BUY Team Liquid 47¢ $3 9h
Will Netherlands vs. Japan end in a draw? BUY No 73¢ $4 9h
Netherlands vs. Japan: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 54¢ $3 9h
Spread: Milwaukee Brewers (-3.5) BUY Philadelphia Phillies 42¢ $3 9h
Spread: Athletics (-3.5) BUY Colorado Rockies 62¢ $3 9h
Counter-Strike: G2 vs Legacy (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY Legacy 38¢ $3 12h
St. Louis Cardinals vs. Minnesota Twins BUY St. Louis Cardinals 50¢ $3 12h
Seattle Mariners vs. Washington Nationals: O/U 10.5 BUY Over 49¢ $3 12h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $28.25 · official $28.25 (match) · 111 history records