Wallet analysis

2026-06-26T16:04:24+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.5
score
0E 0x0e18…f3b1 crypto 37 markets active 0h ago coverage 4d
RISKYcopy with care Fresh edge⚠ High turnover
! high turnover! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL −$48 (-1%) realized −$47 · open −$1
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +46% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +12% what you keep after slip
Net edge+12%after slip
Net WR40%break-even
Win rate40%14W / 21L
Drawdown70%max
Avg bet$142per market
Trades / day24.5pace
Fees−$10est.
Kalshi-fit62%portable
Net worth$9now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 4d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 59% −$1,010
other 30% +$555
sports 12% +$1,098
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
borderline — thin edge, slippage-sensitive
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +40%
net ROI/market (all)+32.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 35 +45.9% +32.0% 40% 40% -5.1%
≤30d 35 +45.9% +32.0% 40% 40% -5.1%
≤90d 35 +45.9% +32.0% 40% 40% -5.1%
all 35 +45.9% +32.0% 40% 40% -5.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover24.5 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to15%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal +32.0% 40% -5.1%
10% ← realistic here +19.4% 37% -14.2%
15% +7.9% 37% -22.5%
20% -2.7% 31% -30.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 40% · top 2 51% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +13% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +46% · $-wt +13% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +24% → late +67% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
2.5 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$242 vs −$131 · ×1.85 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.23 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

4d coverage
Net worth$9
Realized−$47
Unrealized−$1
Win rate (resolved)40%
Wins / losses14 / 21
Est. fees paid−$10
Open positions1
Markets (closed)35 / 37
History coverage4d
Avg bet$142
Trades / day24.5
Drawdown70%
Kalshi-fit62%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 35 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 12:00PM-12:05PM ET Down 9¢ 8¢ $10 $9 −$1 (-6%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 20 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 11:55AM-12:00PM ET Jun 26 $185 −$5 -3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 11:50AM-11:55AM ET Jun 26 $56 −$53 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 11:45AM-11:50AM ET Jun 26 $16 −$15 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 11:30AM-11:35AM ET Jun 26 $288 −$280 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 11:20AM-11:25AM ET Jun 26 $156 +$181 +116%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 11:10AM-11:15AM ET Jun 26 $58 −$55 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 10:55AM-11:00AM ET Jun 26 $235 +$365 +155%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 10:40AM-10:45AM ET Jun 26 $413 −$413 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 10:35AM-10:40AM ET Jun 26 $26 +$13 +52%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 10:30AM-10:35AM ET Jun 26 $510 +$189 +37%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 10:25AM-10:30AM ET Jun 26 $104 −$100 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 10:15AM-10:20AM ET Jun 26 $208 −$200 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 10:10AM-10:15AM ET Jun 26 $313 −$300 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 10:00AM-10:05AM ET Jun 26 $206 −$200 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 9:50AM-9:55AM ET Jun 26 $53 −$50 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 9:45AM-9:50AM ET Jun 26 $134 −$130 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 9:30AM-9:35AM ET Jun 26 $117 +$43 +36%
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-25? AND Will Japan vs. Sweden end in a dra Jun 26 $48 +$1,365 +2845%
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-25? Jun 26 $31 +$89 +291%
Will Japan vs. Sweden end in a draw? Jun 26 $40 +$99 +248%
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-25? Jun 25 $31 −$30 -98%
Amad Diallo: 1+ goals Jun 25 $20 −$20 -98%
Deniz Undav: 1+ goals Jun 25 $29 −$28 -98%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-25? Jun 25 $115 −$113 -98%
Curaçao vs. Côte d'Ivoire: O/U 2.5 Jun 25 $101 −$100 -99%
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-25? Jun 25 $99 +$18 +18%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-24? Jun 25 $320 +$244 +76%
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-24? AND Will Switzerland wi Jun 24 $101 +$218 +216%
Will England win on 2026-06-23? Jun 23 $96 −$95 -99%
England leading at halftime? Jun 23 $200 −$198 -99%
Harry Kane: 1+ assists Jun 23 $99 −$97 -98%
Spread: England (-1.5) Jun 23 $269 −$266 -99%
Cristiano Ronaldo: 2+ goals Jun 23 $64 +$153 +238%
Cristiano Ronaldo: 1+ goals Jun 23 $152 +$98 +65%
Kylian Mbappé: 2+ goals Jun 23 $199 +$315 +158%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 12:00PM-12:05PM ET BUY Down 9¢ $5 3m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 12:00PM-12:05PM ET BUY Down 9¢ $5 3m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 11:55AM-12:00PM ET BUY Down 11¢ $5 5m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 11:55AM-12:00PM ET SELL Up 85¢ $241 5m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 11:55AM-12:00PM ET BUY Up 64¢ $103 7m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 11:55AM-12:00PM ET BUY Up 58¢ $26 8m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 11:55AM-12:00PM ET BUY Up 57¢ $26 8m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 11:55AM-12:00PM ET BUY Up 57¢ $26 8m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 11:50AM-11:55AM ET BUY Up 7¢ $3 11m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 11:50AM-11:55AM ET BUY Up 10¢ $27 12m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 11:50AM-11:55AM ET BUY Up 19¢ $26 13m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 11:45AM-11:50AM ET BUY Up 12¢ $5 17m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 11:45AM-11:50AM ET BUY Up 11¢ $5 17m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 11:45AM-11:50AM ET BUY Up 11¢ $5 17m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 11:30AM-11:35AM ET BUY Up 14¢ $5 30m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 11:30AM-11:35AM ET BUY Up 53¢ $26 32m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 11:30AM-11:35AM ET BUY Up 52¢ $26 32m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 11:30AM-11:35AM ET BUY Up 59¢ $26 33m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 11:30AM-11:35AM ET BUY Up 64¢ $103 33m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 11:30AM-11:35AM ET BUY Up 58¢ $103 33m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 11:20AM-11:25AM ET BUY Up 45¢ $26 43m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 11:20AM-11:25AM ET BUY Up 49¢ $26 43m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 11:20AM-11:25AM ET BUY Up 50¢ $26 43m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 11:20AM-11:25AM ET BUY Up 43¢ $26 43m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 11:20AM-11:25AM ET BUY Up 40¢ $26 43m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 11:20AM-11:25AM ET BUY Up 42¢ $26 43m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 11:10AM-11:15AM ET BUY Up 19¢ $5 53m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 11:10AM-11:15AM ET BUY Up 22¢ $26 53m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 11:10AM-11:15AM ET BUY Up 26¢ $26 53m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 10:55AM-11:00AM ET BUY Up 31¢ $26 1h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $9.44 · official $14.12 · 108 history records