Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T12:06:28+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.0
score
0E 0x0e16…d17e crypto 34 markets active 1h ago coverage 82d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ net negative once open positions are counted
Total PnL −$27 (-5%) realized +$5 · open −$32
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +2% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -8% what you keep after slip
Net edge-8%after slip
Net WR61%break-even
Win rate67%22W / 11L
Drawdown28%max
Avg bet$16per market
Trades / day1.0pace
Kalshi-fit94%portable
Net worth$76now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$101
7 days+$101
14 days+$101
30 days+$101
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 78% +$101
other 22% −$42
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +61%
net ROI/market (all)-7.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 32 +5.4% -4.6% 69% 62% +11.7%
≤30d 32 +5.4% -4.6% 69% 62% +11.7%
≤90d 33 +2.2% -7.5% 67% 61% +8.9%
all 33 +2.2% -7.5% 67% 61% +8.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.0 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -7.5% 61% +8.9%
10% -16.4% 48% -1.5%
15% -24.5% 27% -11.0%
20% -31.9% 21% -19.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 14% · top 2 29% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +20% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
9% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +2% · $-wt +20% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -20% → late +23% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.6 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$7 vs −$6 · ×1.13 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×2.27 per $1 lost it wins $2.27
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

82d coverage
Net worth$76
Realized+$5
Unrealized−$32
Win rate (resolved)67%
Wins / losses22 / 11
Open positions1
Markets (closed)33 / 34
History coverage82d
Avg bet$16
Trades / day1.0
Drawdown28%
Kalshi-fit94%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 33 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Max Verstappen be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Yes 3¢ 2¢ $107 $76 −$32 (-29%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 8 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 6:35AM-6:40AM ET Jun 18 $24 +$18 +74%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 6:20AM-6:25AM ET Jun 18 $26 +$23 +89%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 6:15AM-6:20AM ET Jun 18 $26 +$23 +89%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 6:10AM-6:15AM ET Jun 18 $26 +$22 +84%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 6:00AM-6:05AM ET Jun 18 $26 +$12 +48%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 5:55AM-6:00AM ET Jun 18 $26 +$10 +37%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 5:50AM-5:55AM ET Jun 18 $5 +$1 +24%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 5:50AM-5:55AM ET Jun 17 $5 +$1 +15%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:40PM-2:45PM ET Jun 16 $16 +$1 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:35PM-2:40PM ET Jun 16 $26 −$25 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:30PM-2:35PM ET Jun 16 $26 $0 -1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:25PM-2:30PM ET Jun 16 $26 +$16 +63%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:30PM-12:35PM ET Jun 16 $25 +$5 +21%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:25PM-12:30PM ET Jun 16 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:20PM-12:25PM ET Jun 16 $5 −$5 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:15PM-12:20PM ET Jun 16 $10 +$6 +59%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:10PM-12:15PM ET Jun 16 $5 +$4 +83%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:05PM-12:10PM ET Jun 16 $5 +$1 +22%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:00PM-12:05PM ET Jun 16 $5 −$5 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:55AM-12:00PM ET Jun 16 $16 +$5 +29%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:50AM-11:55AM ET Jun 16 $5 −$5 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:45AM-11:50AM ET Jun 16 $11 +$3 +30%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:40AM-11:45AM ET Jun 16 $5 +$2 +32%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:35AM-11:40AM ET Jun 16 $16 +$2 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:30AM-11:35AM ET Jun 16 $10 −$1 -13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:25AM-11:30AM ET Jun 16 $10 −$1 -9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:20AM-11:25AM ET Jun 16 $5 +$1 +22%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:15AM-11:20AM ET Jun 16 $15 +$1 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:10AM-11:15AM ET Jun 16 $5 +$2 +35%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:05AM-11:10AM ET Jun 16 $6 −$6 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:55AM-11:00AM ET Jun 16 $2 −$2 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:50AM-10:55AM ET Jun 16 $7 +$1 +21%
Will Charles Leclerc get pole position at the 2026 F1 Japanese Grand P Mar 28 $11 −$11 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 6:35AM-6:40AM ET SELL Down 74¢ $42 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 6:35AM-6:40AM ET BUY Down 40¢ $24 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 6:20AM-6:25AM ET SELL Down 98¢ $49 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 6:20AM-6:25AM ET BUY Down 50¢ $26 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 6:15AM-6:20AM ET SELL Down 78¢ $49 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 6:15AM-6:20AM ET BUY Down 39¢ $26 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 6:10AM-6:15AM ET SELL Down 94¢ $48 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 6:10AM-6:15AM ET BUY Down 49¢ $26 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 6:00AM-6:05AM ET SELL Down 96¢ $38 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 6:00AM-6:05AM ET BUY Down 63¢ $26 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 5:55AM-6:00AM ET SELL Down 79¢ $35 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 5:55AM-6:00AM ET BUY Down 55¢ $26 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 5:50AM-5:55AM ET SELL Down 79¢ $6 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 5:50AM-5:55AM ET BUY Down 61¢ $5 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 5:50AM-5:55AM ET BUY Down 86¢ $5 26h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:40PM-2:45PM ET SELL Up 50¢ $17 41h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:40PM-2:45PM ET BUY Up 47¢ $5 41h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:40PM-2:45PM ET BUY Up 41¢ $5 41h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:40PM-2:45PM ET BUY Up 41¢ $5 41h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:35PM-2:40PM ET BUY Up 32¢ $26 41h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:30PM-2:35PM ET SELL Down 57¢ $26 41h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:30PM-2:35PM ET BUY Down 54¢ $26 41h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:25PM-2:30PM ET SELL Down 82¢ $42 41h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:25PM-2:30PM ET BUY Down 48¢ $26 41h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:30PM-12:35PM ET BUY Down 83¢ $5 43h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:30PM-12:35PM ET BUY Down 82¢ $5 43h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:30PM-12:35PM ET BUY Down 82¢ $5 43h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:30PM-12:35PM ET BUY Down 81¢ $5 43h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:30PM-12:35PM ET BUY Down 79¢ $5 43h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:25PM-12:30PM ET BUY Up 47¢ $5 43h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $75.71 · official $75.71 (match) · 90 history records