Wallet analysis

2026-06-28T09:19:31+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.5
score
0E 0x0e10…ce29 other 12 markets active 1h ago coverage 738d
RISKYcopy with care ⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$156 (-46%) realized −$145 · open −$11
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -51% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -56% what you keep after slip
Net edge-56%after slip
Net WR10%break-even
Win rate10%1W / 9L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$28per market
Trades / day0.0pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit42%portable
Net worth$128now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days−$15
14 days−$20
30 days−$20
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 62% −$173
crypto 27% +$2
sports 11% +$15
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +10%
net ROI/market (all)-55.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 6 -18.6% -26.4% 17% 17% -30.7%
≤30d 7 -30.2% -36.9% 14% 14% -35.6%
≤90d 7 -30.2% -36.9% 14% 14% -35.6%
all 10 -51.2% -55.8% 10% 10% -76.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.0 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -55.8% 10% -76.8%
10% -60.0% 10% -79.0%
15% -63.9% 10% -81.1%
20% -67.4% 10% -82.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 100% · top 2 100% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -29% too few recent
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -51% · $-wt -74% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$40 vs −$21 · ×1.93 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.21 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

738d coverage
Net worth$128
Realized−$145
Unrealized−$11
Win rate (resolved)10%
Wins / losses1 / 9
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions2
Markets (closed)10 / 12
History coverage738d
Avg bet$28
Trades / day0.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit42%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 10 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 5¢ 5¢ $90 $92 +$2 (+2%)
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 14¢ 11¢ $49 $36 −$13 (-26%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 9 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Switzerland vs. Canada end in a draw? Jun 22 $10 −$10 -98%
Will Senegal win on 2026-06-22? Jun 22 $10 −$10 -98%
Will Belgium vs. IR Iran end in a draw? Jun 22 $10 +$40 +388%
Starmer out by June 26, 2026? Jun 21 $10 −$10 -97%
Starmer out by June 22, 2026? Jun 21 $15 −$15 -98%
Will Czechia vs. Mexico end in a draw? Jun 21 $10 −$10 -98%
Will United States vs. Australia end in a draw? Jun 19 $5 −$5 -97%
Will France win? Jun 21 $59 −$59 -100%
Will Italy win? Jun 20 $16 −$16 -100%
Will the match be a draw? Jun 20 $50 −$50 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 5¢ $10 1h
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 5¢ $51 1h
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 5¢ $31 24h
Will Switzerland vs. Canada end in a draw? BUY Yes 32¢ $10 6d
Will Senegal win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 29¢ $10 6d
Starmer out by June 26, 2026? BUY No 13¢ $10 6d
Starmer out by June 22, 2026? BUY No 40¢ $15 6d
Will Czechia vs. Mexico end in a draw? BUY Yes 24¢ $10 6d
Will Belgium vs. IR Iran end in a draw? BUY Yes 20¢ $10 6d
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 14¢ $50 6d
Will United States vs. Australia end in a draw? BUY Yes 2¢ $5 8d
Will France win? BUY Yes 74¢ $59 736d
Will Italy win? BUY Yes 33¢ $16 737d
Will the match be a draw? BUY Yes 31¢ $50 737d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $128.01 · official $128.01 (match) · 22 history records