Wallet analysis

2026-06-23T04:45:41+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
0E 0x0e0a…07fd sports 671 markets active 0h ago coverage 178d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialist
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$324 (-1%) realized −$324 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -4% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -17% what you keep after slip
Net edge-17%after slip
Net WR42%break-even
Win rate42%283W / 388L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$52per market
Trades / day5.7pace
Fees−$338est.
Kalshi-fit97%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$99
7 days+$32
14 days+$11
30 days−$645
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 97% −$765
other 3% −$296
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +42%
net ROI/market (all)-13.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 18 +15.3% +4.3% 56% 56% -5.4%
≤30d 83 -11.8% -20.2% 37% 37% -24.0%
≤90d 355 -7.6% -16.4% 42% 42% -17.0%
all 671 -4.1% -13.2% 42% 42% -11.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover5.7 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -13.2% 42% -11.8%
10% -21.5% 42% -20.2%
15% -29.1% 41% -27.9%
20% -36.0% 39% -35.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 2% · top 2 4% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -9% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
1% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -4% · $-wt -3% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -0% → late -8% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$54 vs −$42 · ×1.28 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.93 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

178d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$324
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)42%
Wins / losses283 / 388
Est. fees paid−$338
Open positions0
Markets (closed)671 / 671
History coverage178d
Avg bet$52
Trades / day5.7
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit97%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 671 Trades
no open positions (294 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Jordan vs. Algeria: O/U 2.5 Jun 23 $47 −$44 -94%
Argentina vs. Austria: O/U 2.5 Jun 22 $63 −$62 -98%
New Zealand vs. Egypt: O/U 1.5 Jun 22 $39 −$38 -98%
Will Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? Jun 22 $51 +$49 +97%
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: O/U 3.5 Jun 21 $52 +$50 +97%
Belgium vs. IR Iran: O/U 2.5 Jun 21 $55 −$54 -99%
Will Ecuador vs. Curaçao end in a draw? Jun 21 $51 +$60 +119%
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $24 +$30 +124%
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $51 −$28 -55%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $47 +$34 +73%
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: O/U 2.5 Jun 18 $37 −$36 -98%
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $34 −$34 -99%
Will England win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $37 +$27 +73%
England vs. Croatia: O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $15 +$18 +119%
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $93 −$36 -39%
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $38 +$43 +114%
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $30 +$37 +124%
France vs. Senegal: O/U 2.5 Jun 16 $16 +$14 +86%
Spread: Spain (-2.5) Jun 15 $26 −$26 -99%
Will Germany vs. Curaçao end in a draw? Jun 14 $4 −$4 -97%
Will Curaçao win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $3 −$2 -97%
Will Tunisia win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $10 −$10 -98%
Will Korea Republic vs. Czechia end in a draw? Jun 11 $34 −$33 -98%
Spread: Mexico (-1.5) Jun 11 $21 −$21 -99%
Games Total: O/U 2.5 Jun 11 $27 −$27 -98%
Spurs vs. Knicks Jun 11 $13 +$105 +786%
Spread: Knicks (-2.5) Jun 11 $39 −$2 -5%
Spurs vs. Knicks Jun 09 $36 −$26 -74%
Dota 2: Team Yandex vs LGD Gaming - Game 3 Winner Jun 07 $27 +$29 +105%
Dota 2: BetBoom Team vs LGD Gaming (BO3) - BLAST Slam Playoffs Jun 07 $27 −$26 -98%
Games Total: O/U 2.5 Jun 07 $30 +$33 +109%
Games Total: O/U 2.5 Jun 06 $15 +$15 +97%
Spread: Spurs (-5.5) Jun 06 $73 −$58 -79%
Dota 2: LGD Gaming vs Team Liquid (BO3) - BLAST Slam Playoffs Jun 05 $24 +$21 +86%
Dota 2: LGD Gaming vs Team Liquid - Game 2 Winner Jun 05 $30 −$22 -72%
Dota 2: Team Falcons vs BetBoom Team - Game 1 Winner Jun 05 $30 +$22 +73%
Games Total: O/U 2.5 Jun 04 $51 −$48 -95%
Dota 2: Aurora vs Team Yandex - Game 2 Winner Jun 04 $24 −$24 -98%
Games Total: O/U 2.5 Jun 04 $52 −$51 -98%
Knicks vs. Spurs Jun 04 $56 −$55 -98%
Spread: Spurs (-5.5) Jun 04 $102 −$91 -90%
Spread: Spurs (-6.5) May 31 $30 +$74 +250%
Spurs vs. Thunder May 31 $46 +$57 +124%
Dota 2: Team Liquid vs Aurora - Game 2 Winner May 30 $40 −$22 -56%
Games Total: O/U 2.5 May 30 $49 −$48 -98%
Dota 2: Team Spirit vs Team Yandex - Game 1 Winner May 30 $30 +$20 +66%
Games Total: O/U 2.5 May 30 $51 +$51 +100%
Dota 2: Team Liquid vs Aurora - Game 1 Winner May 30 $82 −$45 -56%
Will Arsenal FC win on 2026-05-30? May 30 $14 −$14 -98%
Dota 2: Tundra Esports vs LGD Gaming (BO1) - BLAST Slam Group Stage May 29 $51 −$50 -98%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Jordan vs. Algeria: O/U 2.5 SELL Under 3¢ $3 0m
Jordan vs. Algeria: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 50¢ $47 1h
Argentina vs. Austria: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 50¢ $63 18h
New Zealand vs. Egypt: O/U 1.5 BUY Under 25¢ $39 26h
Will Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? BUY Yes 50¢ $51 29h
Belgium vs. IR Iran: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 53¢ $55 45h
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 50¢ $52 45h
Will Ecuador vs. Curaçao end in a draw? BUY Yes 45¢ $51 2d
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 44¢ $24 3d
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-19? SELL Yes 22¢ $23 3d
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 47¢ $51 3d
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 57¢ $47 3d
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 45¢ $37 4d
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 54¢ $34 4d
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 55¢ $35 5d
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 2.5 SELL Over 54¢ $55 5d
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 55¢ $57 5d
England vs. Croatia: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 45¢ $15 5d
Will England win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 57¢ $37 5d
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 46¢ $38 6d
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 44¢ $30 6d
France vs. Senegal: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 53¢ $16 6d
Spread: Spain (-2.5) BUY Spain 56¢ $26 7d
Will Germany vs. Curaçao end in a draw? BUY Yes 4¢ $4 8d
Will Curaçao win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 2¢ $3 8d
Will Tunisia win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 23¢ $10 8d
Will Korea Republic vs. Czechia end in a draw? BUY Yes 32¢ $34 11d
Spread: Mexico (-1.5) BUY South Africa 60¢ $21 11d
Games Total: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 47¢ $27 11d
Spurs vs. Knicks BUY Knicks 11¢ $13 12d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 1209 history records