Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T05:37:32+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
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0E 0x0e09…24dc crypto 184 markets active 3h ago coverage 22d
BOTnot copyable crypto specialist⚠ High turnover
✗ bot/MM pace (55 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$319 (-3%) realized −$328 · open +$9
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -4% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -26% what you keep after slip
Net edge-26%after slip
Net WR21%break-even
Win rate51%93W / 89L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$65per market
Trades / day54.6pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$929now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$99
7 days+$69
14 days+$67
30 days−$417
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
weather 50% +$114
crypto 50% −$514
world 0% −$7
politics 0% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (55 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +21%
net ROI/market (all)-13.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 74 -7.3% -16.1% 68% 11% -8.6%
≤30d 182 -4.3% -13.4% 51% 21% -13.0%
≤90d 182 -4.3% -13.4% 51% 21% -13.0%
all 182 -4.3% -13.4% 51% 21% -13.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover54.6 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -13.4% 21% -13.0%
10% ← realistic here -21.7% 18% -21.3%
15% -29.3% 16% -28.9%
20% -36.2% 15% -35.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 11% · top 2 18% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -4% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
58% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -4% · $-wt -4% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -3% → late -5% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
5.9 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$22 vs −$28 · ×0.79 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.83 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

22d coverage
Net worth$929
Realized−$328
Unrealized+$9
Win rate (resolved)51%
Wins / losses93 / 89
Open positions2
Markets (closed)182 / 184
History coverage22d
Avg bet$65
Trades / day54.6
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 182 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 34°C or higher on June 17? Yes 99¢ 100¢ $787 $794 +$8 (+1%)
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 31°C on June 17? No 99¢ 100¢ $133 $135 +$1 (+1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 61 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the lowest temperature in London be 19°C on June 17? Jun 17 $108 +$3 +3%
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 25°C on June 17? Jun 17 $105 +$1 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 20°C on June 16? Jun 16 $401 +$10 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 11°C on June 16? Jun 16 $36 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 30°C on June 16? Jun 16 $453 +$3 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 28°C on June 16? Jun 16 $182 +$2 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 29°C on June 16? Jun 16 $137 +$1 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 34°C on June 16? Jun 16 $112 +$17 +15%
Will the lowest temperature in London be 16°C on June 16? Jun 16 $97 +$1 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 31°C on June 16? Jun 16 $30 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 38°C on June 15? Jun 15 $400 +$3 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 28°C on June 15? Jun 15 $30 +$1 +3%
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 29°C on June 15? Jun 15 $237 +$2 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 27°C on June 15? Jun 15 $308 +$3 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 28°C on June 15? Jun 15 $390 +$52 +13%
Will Bitcoin reach $66,000 June 8-14? Jun 14 $26 +$1 +3%
Will Bitcoin dip to $57,500 in June? Jun 14 $42 −$10 -23%
Will Bitcoin reach $70,000 in June? Jun 14 $24 +$2 +9%
Will Bitcoin dip to $56,000 June 8-14? Jun 14 $23 −$2 -11%
Will Bitcoin dip to $50,000 in June? Jun 14 $17 −$5 -28%
Will Bitcoin dip to $52,500 in June? Jun 14 $20 −$6 -28%
Will Bitcoin reach $70,000 June 8-14? Jun 14 $19 −$4 -21%
Will Bitcoin dip to $47,500 in June? Jun 14 $7 −$1 -14%
Will Bitcoin reach $75,000 in June? Jun 14 $13 $0 -3%
Will Bitcoin dip to $55,000 in June? Jun 14 $37 −$10 -28%
Will Bitcoin reach $68,000 June 8-14? Jun 14 $34 −$12 -35%
Will Bitcoin reach $67,500 in June? Jun 14 $17 −$4 -21%
Will Bitcoin dip to $54,000 June 8-14? Jun 14 $9 +$1 +6%
Will Bitcoin reach $72,000 June 8-14? Jun 14 $11 $0 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Austin be between 90-91°F on June 14? Jun 14 $400 +$3 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Denver be between 66-67°F on June 14? Jun 14 $300 +$3 +1%
Will Bitcoin dip to $58,000 June 8-14? Jun 14 $30 −$12 -40%
Will Bitcoin dip to $60,000 June 8-14? Jun 14 $5 −$1 -25%
Will the highest temperature in Mexico City be 24°C on June 14? Jun 14 $292 +$2 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 26°C on June 14? Jun 14 $244 −$22 -9%
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 27°C on June 13? Jun 13 $110 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 28°C on June 13? Jun 13 $120 +$2 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 26°C or higher on June 12? Jun 12 $10 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 16°C on June 12? Jun 12 $14 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $58,000 on June 12? Jun 12 $46 +$2 +4%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on June 12? Jun 12 $67 +$3 +5%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on June 12? Jun 12 $61 +$6 +9%
Will the highest temperature in Cape Town be 17°C on June 12? Jun 12 $403 +$8 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 25°C on June 12? Jun 12 $34 +$1 +3%
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 26°C on June 12? Jun 12 $114 +$7 +6%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $60,000 and $62,000 on June 11? Jun 11 $28 −$6 -22%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $56,000 and $58,000 on June 11? Jun 11 $13 $0 +1%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on June 11? Jun 11 $243 +$7 +3%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on June 11? Jun 11 $51 −$1 -1%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $58,000 and $60,000 on June 11? Jun 11 $57 +$2 +3%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 34°C or higher on June 17? BUY Yes 99¢ $394 2h
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 34°C or higher on June 17? BUY Yes 99¢ $394 2h
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 31°C on June 17? BUY No 99¢ $67 4h
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 31°C on June 17? BUY No 99¢ $67 4h
Will the lowest temperature in London be 19°C on June 17? SELL No 100¢ $111 4h
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 25°C on June 17? SELL No 100¢ $21 5h
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 25°C on June 17? SELL No 100¢ $5 5h
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 25°C on June 17? SELL No 100¢ $5 5h
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 25°C on June 17? SELL No 100¢ $75 5h
Will the lowest temperature in London be 19°C on June 17? BUY No 97¢ $108 6h
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 25°C on June 17? BUY No 99¢ $105 8h
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 20°C on June 16? SELL No 100¢ $410 10h
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 11°C on June 16? BUY No 99¢ $18 19h
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 11°C on June 16? BUY No 99¢ $18 19h
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 20°C on June 16? BUY No 97¢ $401 20h
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 30°C on June 16? SELL No 100¢ $456 20h
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 28°C on June 16? SELL No 100¢ $183 20h
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 29°C on June 16? SELL No 100¢ $138 20h
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 34°C on June 16? SELL Yes 100¢ $130 20h
Will the lowest temperature in London be 16°C on June 16? SELL No 100¢ $97 20h
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 31°C on June 16? SELL No 100¢ $30 20h
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 34°C on June 16? BUY Yes 89¢ $54 25h
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 34°C on June 16? BUY Yes 83¢ $58 25h
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 31°C on June 16? BUY No 99¢ $15 27h
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 31°C on June 16? BUY No 99¢ $15 27h
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 30°C on June 16? BUY No 99¢ $224 27h
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 30°C on June 16? BUY No 99¢ $229 27h
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 29°C on June 16? BUY No 99¢ $15 28h
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 29°C on June 16? BUY No 99¢ $15 28h
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 29°C on June 16? BUY No 99¢ $9 28h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $928.84 · official $928.85 (match) · 1298 history records