Wallet analysis

2026-06-22T02:43:06+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.5
score
0E 0x0e08…7668 crypto 43 markets active 2h ago coverage 6d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL +$61 (+10%) realized +$62 · open −$1
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -4% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -20% what you keep after slip
Net edge-20%after slip
Net WR55%break-even
Win rate62%25W / 15L
Drawdown72%max
Avg bet$14per market
Trades / day12.5pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit93%portable
Net worth$19now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 6d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 69% −$33
other 24% +$64
sports 7% +$15
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +55%
net ROI/market (all)-12.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 40 -3.6% -12.8% 62% 55% -1.2%
≤30d 40 -3.6% -12.8% 62% 55% -1.2%
≤90d 40 -3.6% -12.8% 62% 55% -1.2%
all 40 -3.6% -12.8% 62% 55% -1.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover12.5 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -12.8% 55% -1.2%
10% -21.1% 40% -10.6%
15% -28.8% 30% -19.3%
20% -35.7% 20% -27.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 30% · top 2 42% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +9% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
8% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -4% · $-wt +9% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +9% → late -16% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$7 vs −$8 · ×0.84 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.39 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

6d coverage
Net worth$19
Realized+$62
Unrealized−$1
Win rate (resolved)62%
Wins / losses25 / 15
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions1
Markets (closed)40 / 43
History coverage6d
Avg bet$14
Trades / day12.5
Drawdown72%
Kalshi-fit93%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 40 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 6¢ 6¢ $20 $19 −$1 (-7%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 9 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 9:00PM-9:05PM ET Jun 22 $26 +$1 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 8:55PM-9:00PM ET Jun 22 $26 +$17 +66%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 8:50PM-8:55PM ET Jun 22 $5 $0 -5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 8:45PM-8:50PM ET Jun 22 $26 −$25 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 6:00AM-6:05AM ET Jun 21 $26 −$25 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 5:50AM-5:55AM ET Jun 21 $5 $0 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 5:45AM-5:50AM ET Jun 21 $31 −$25 -82%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 5:20AM-5:25AM ET Jun 21 $25 +$5 +20%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 5:15AM-5:20AM ET Jun 21 $5 −$5 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 5:10AM-5:15AM ET Jun 21 $5 +$5 +93%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 4:50AM-4:55AM ET Jun 21 $26 +$6 +22%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 4:45AM-4:50AM ET Jun 21 $1 −$1 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 4:40AM-4:45AM ET Jun 21 $5 −$5 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 4:35AM-4:40AM ET Jun 21 $5 −$5 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 4:30AM-4:35AM ET Jun 21 $5 +$4 +69%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 4:25AM-4:30AM ET Jun 21 $5 +$4 +71%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 4:20AM-4:25AM ET Jun 21 $25 +$8 +30%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 4:15AM-4:20AM ET Jun 21 $5 +$4 +83%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 4:05AM-4:10AM ET Jun 21 $5 +$1 +13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 3:55AM-4:00AM ET Jun 21 $5 −$5 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 3:50AM-3:55AM ET Jun 21 $5 −$5 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 2:55AM-3:00AM ET Jun 21 $5 +$2 +42%
Tunisia vs. Japan: Both Teams to Score Jun 21 $20 +$21 +101%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 11:55PM-12:00AM ET Jun 21 $5 +$9 +170%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 11:50PM-11:55PM ET Jun 21 $5 +$2 +31%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 11:45PM-11:50PM ET Jun 21 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 11:35PM-11:40PM ET Jun 21 $5 +$2 +31%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 6:30AM-6:35AM ET Jun 20 $5 −$3 -62%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 6:25AM-6:30AM ET Jun 20 $5 −$5 -88%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 6:05AM-6:10AM ET Jun 20 $10 +$3 +26%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 6:00AM-6:05AM ET Jun 20 $5 +$2 +41%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 5:25AM-5:30AM ET Jun 20 $31 +$6 +19%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 5:20AM-5:25AM ET Jun 20 $5 −$2 -47%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 4:50AM-4:55AM ET Jun 20 $5 +$1 +15%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 4:40AM-4:45AM ET Jun 20 $5 +$1 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 4:45AM-4:50AM ET Jun 20 $5 +$1 +15%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 4:35AM-4:40AM ET Jun 20 $5 +$2 +49%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $20 +$15 +73%
Will Austria vs. Jordan end in a draw? Jun 17 $10 −$5 -50%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $101 +$50 +50%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 9:00PM-9:05PM ET SELL Down 34¢ $28 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 9:00PM-9:05PM ET BUY Down 29¢ $26 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 8:55PM-9:00PM ET SELL Up 79¢ $43 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 8:55PM-9:00PM ET BUY Up 45¢ $26 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 8:50PM-8:55PM ET SELL Up 14¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 8:50PM-8:55PM ET BUY Up 13¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 8:45PM-8:50PM ET SELL Up 1¢ $0 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 8:45PM-8:50PM ET BUY Up 67¢ $26 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 6:00AM-6:05AM ET BUY Down 58¢ $26 16h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 5:50AM-5:55AM ET SELL Down 16¢ $6 16h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 5:50AM-5:55AM ET BUY Down 13¢ $5 16h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 5:45AM-5:50AM ET BUY Down 72¢ $25 16h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 5:45AM-5:50AM ET SELL Up 25¢ $3 16h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 5:45AM-5:50AM ET BUY Up 42¢ $5 16h
New Zealand vs. Egypt: O/U 3.5 AND Will Spain win on 2026-06-21? AND W BUY 32¢ $10 16h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 5:20AM-5:25AM ET BUY Up 82¢ $25 17h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 5:15AM-5:20AM ET BUY Down 67¢ $5 17h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 5:10AM-5:15AM ET BUY Down 50¢ $5 17h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 4:50AM-4:55AM ET SELL Down 74¢ $31 17h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 4:50AM-4:55AM ET BUY Down 58¢ $26 17h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 4:45AM-4:50AM ET BUY Up 25¢ $1 17h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 4:40AM-4:45AM ET BUY Down 38¢ $5 18h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 4:35AM-4:40AM ET BUY Up 55¢ $5 18h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 4:30AM-4:35AM ET SELL Down 96¢ $9 18h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 4:30AM-4:35AM ET BUY Down 55¢ $5 18h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 4:25AM-4:30AM ET SELL Down 93¢ $9 18h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 4:25AM-4:30AM ET BUY Down 52¢ $5 18h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 4:20AM-4:25AM ET SELL Down 96¢ $33 18h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 4:20AM-4:25AM ET BUY Down 72¢ $25 18h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 4:15AM-4:20AM ET BUY Down 53¢ $5 18h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $18.55 · official $18.55 (match) · 87 history records