Wallet analysis

2026-06-28T00:19:36+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
0E 0x0e03…7428 other 32 markets active 2h ago coverage 592d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$265 (+11%) realized +$265 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +5% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -5% what you keep after slip
Net edge-5%after slip
Net WR56%break-even
Win rate59%19W / 13L
Drawdown65%max
Avg bet$73per market
Trades / day0.1pace
Fees−$12est.
Kalshi-fit38%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$10
7 days−$30
14 days+$273
30 days+$331
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 63% +$70
sports 26% +$189
crypto 10% −$7
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +56%
net ROI/market (all)-5.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 21 -4.4% -13.5% 52% 52% -11.4%
≤30d 28 +11.2% +0.6% 61% 61% +4.9%
≤90d 28 +11.2% +0.6% 61% 61% +4.9%
all 32 +4.9% -5.1% 59% 56% +0.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.1 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -5.1% 56% +0.3%
10% -14.2% 47% -9.3%
15% -22.4% 47% -18.1%
20% -30.0% 28% -26.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 15% · top 2 29% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +16% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
5% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +5% · $-wt +11% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +14% → late -4% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$48 vs −$51 · ×0.94 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.38 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

592d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$265
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)59%
Wins / losses19 / 13
Est. fees paid−$12
Open positions0
Markets (closed)32 / 32
History coverage592d
Avg bet$73
Trades / day0.1
Drawdown65%
Kalshi-fit38%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 32 Trades
no open positions (7 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Croatia vs. Ghana end in a draw? Jun 27 $51 +$10 +20%
Will Spain win on 2026-06-26? Jun 27 $51 +$25 +50%
Will France win on 2026-06-26? Jun 26 $51 +$28 +55%
Will Türkiye vs. United States end in a draw? Jun 26 $51 −$50 -98%
Will United States win on 2026-06-25? Jun 26 $51 −$3 -5%
Will Ecuador vs. Germany end in a draw? Jun 25 $51 −$33 -65%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-25? Jun 25 $51 −$29 -56%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-25? Jun 25 $51 −$50 -99%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-24? Jun 25 $51 +$47 +93%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-24? Jun 24 $102 +$136 +134%
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-23? Jun 24 $51 +$25 +50%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-23? Jun 23 $100 +$19 +18%
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-22? Jun 23 $51 +$26 +52%
Will England win on 2026-06-23? Jun 23 $101 −$100 -100%
Will Norway win on 2026-06-22? Jun 22 $1 $0 -6%
Will Senegal win on 2026-06-22? Jun 22 $51 −$50 -98%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? Jun 22 $101 +$58 +57%
Will Belgium vs. IR Iran end in a draw? Jun 21 $101 +$40 +40%
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $101 −$100 -99%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $101 −$78 -77%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $101 +$48 +48%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $101 +$50 +50%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $101 +$74 +73%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $100 +$15 +14%
Will Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina end in a draw? Jun 18 $102 −$74 -73%
Will Portugal vs. DR Congo end in a draw? Jun 17 $102 +$126 +124%
Will Belgium vs. Egypt end in a draw? Jun 16 $100 +$112 +112%
World Championships: Switzerland vs. Finland Jun 01 $56 +$58 +105%
Will Max Verstappen be the 2025 Drivers Champion? Dec 07 $116 +$1 +1%
Will Bitcoin reach $95,000 in November? Nov 14 $37 −$37 -100%
Will Bitcoin hit $100k in 2024? Nov 13 $63 −$63 -100%
Will Bitcoin reach $90,000 in November? Nov 13 $44 +$19 +44%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Croatia vs. Ghana end in a draw? SELL Yes 41¢ $61 1h
Will Croatia vs. Ghana end in a draw? BUY Yes 33¢ $51 1h
Will France win on 2026-06-26? BUY Yes 64¢ $51 32h
Will Spain win on 2026-06-26? BUY Yes 66¢ $51 44h
Will Türkiye vs. United States end in a draw? BUY Yes 39¢ $51 44h
Will United States win on 2026-06-25? SELL Yes 45¢ $48 44h
Will United States win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 46¢ $51 44h
Will Ecuador vs. Germany end in a draw? SELL Yes 18¢ $18 2d
Will Ecuador vs. Germany end in a draw? BUY Yes 49¢ $51 2d
Will Germany win on 2026-06-25? SELL Yes 29¢ $22 2d
Will Japan win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 52¢ $51 2d
Will Germany win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 65¢ $51 2d
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 51¢ $51 3d
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 42¢ $102 4d
Will England win on 2026-06-23? BUY Yes 82¢ $101 4d
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-23? BUY Yes 84¢ $100 4d
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-23? BUY Yes 66¢ $51 4d
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 65¢ $51 4d
Will Norway win on 2026-06-22? SELL Yes 42¢ $1 5d
Will Norway win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 43¢ $1 5d
Will Senegal win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 30¢ $51 5d
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 70¢ $101 6d
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21? SELL Yes 16¢ $23 6d
Will Belgium vs. IR Iran end in a draw? BUY Yes 71¢ $101 6d
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 68¢ $101 6d
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 67¢ $101 7d
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 63¢ $101 7d
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 66¢ $101 7d
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 57¢ $101 7d
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 87¢ $100 9d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 61 history records