Wallet analysis

2026-06-24T11:23:00+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
0E 0x0e03…86d6 politics 47 markets active 1h ago coverage 308d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL −$1 (-0%) realized −$1 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt -0% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -10% what you keep after slip
Net edge-10%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate32%15W / 32L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$32per market
Trades / day0.6pace
Kalshi-fit74%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$0
7 days+$1
14 days+$1
30 days−$2
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 32% −$3
other 28% +$1
politics 26% +$1
crypto 8% $0
sports 3% $0
finance 2% $0
culture 1% $0
weather 0% $0
economics 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-9.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 6 +0.2% -9.3% 67% 0% -9.3%
≤30d 14 -0.7% -10.2% 43% 0% -9.7%
≤90d 14 -0.7% -10.2% 43% 0% -9.7%
all 47 -0.2% -9.7% 32% 0% -9.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.6 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.7% 0% -9.6%
10% -18.4% 0% -18.2%
15% -26.3% 0% -26.1%
20% -33.5% 0% -33.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 76% · top 2 84% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -0% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -0% → late -0% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.8 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$1 · ×0.82 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.88 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

308d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$1
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)32%
Wins / losses15 / 32
Open positions0
Markets (closed)47 / 47
History coverage308d
Avg bet$32
Trades / day0.6
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit74%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 47 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 31? Jun 24 $56 $0 +1%
China x Philippines military clash before 2027? Jun 24 $96 $0 +0%
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 18 $2 $0 +0%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? Jun 18 $40 $0 +0%
US strike on Cuba by December 31? Jun 18 $89 $0 +0%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? Jun 17 $44 $0 +0%
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 03 $76 +$7 +9%
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? Jun 02 $13 $0 +0%
Will Alireza Arafi be head of state in Iran end of 2026? Jun 01 $72 $0 +0%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? May 31 $115 $0 +0%
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? May 30 $24 $0 -2%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by December 31, 2026? May 30 $40 −$3 -8%
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by May 31, 2026? May 29 $37 $0 +0%
US-Iran nuclear deal by May 31? May 28 $56 −$6 -10%
Xi Jinping out before October? Oct 02 $33 $0 -0%
Will Steve Bannon win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Aug 26 $8 $0 -0%
Will Elon Musk be TIME's Person of the Year for 2025? Aug 26 $53 $0 +1%
Will PRO win the most seats in the Chamber of Deputies following the 2 Aug 26 $39 $0 -0%
Will Volodymyr Zelenskyy be TIME's Person of the Year for 2025? Aug 26 $27 $0 +0%
Will Andy Beshear win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Aug 26 $1 $0 +0%
Will Alphabet be the largest company in the world by market cap on Dec Aug 26 $11 $0 +0%
Will Wes Moore win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Aug 26 $31 $0 +0%
Will Kamala Harris win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Aug 25 $10 $0 +0%
Will Jack Draper win the 2025 US Open? Aug 25 $33 $0 +0%
Will 4 Fed rate cuts happen in 2025? Aug 25 $4 $0 -2%
Will Donald Trump win Nobel Peace Prize in 2025? Aug 25 $4 $0 +1%
Will Ana-Maria Ciceală be the next Mayor of Bucharest? Aug 25 $37 $0 +0%
Will Eric Adams win the 2025 NYC mayoral election? Aug 25 $39 +$1 +2%
Will the Washington Commanders win Super Bowl 2026? Aug 25 $10 $0 -0%
Will the Los Angeles Lakers win the 2026 NBA Finals? Aug 24 $5 $0 -0%
Will the San Francisco 49ers win Super Bowl 2026? Aug 24 $2 $0 +0%
Will Volodymyr Zelensky win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2025? Aug 24 $5 $0 +0%
Will Glenn Youngkin win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Aug 23 $40 $0 +0%
Will Tim Walz win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Aug 23 $40 $0 -0%
Will Rodrigo Paz win the 2025 Bolivia presidential election? Aug 23 $7 $0 -1%
Will Jon Ossoff win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Aug 23 $5 $0 +0%
Successful Ukrainian counterattack in Donbass? Aug 23 $37 $0 -1%
Will the Cincinnati Bengals win Super Bowl 2026? Aug 22 $5 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $90K in August? Aug 22 $36 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin reach $130K in August? Aug 22 $41 $0 -0%
Will Alexander Zverev win the 2025 US Open? Aug 22 $6 $0 -0%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be 88°F or higher on Aug Aug 22 $5 $0 +0%
Will Donald Trump be the first leader out in 2025? Aug 22 $41 $0 +0%
Will Ethereum hit $17,000 by December 31? Aug 21 $41 $0 +0%
Will Trump sell 25k-100k Gold Cards in 2025? Aug 21 $41 $0 +0%
Will Gretchen Whitmer win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Aug 21 $5 $0 +0%
Will Nick Delehanty win the Irish Presidential Election? Aug 20 $41 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 31? SELL No 68¢ $45 1h
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 31? BUY No 68¢ $3 2h
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 31? BUY No 68¢ $41 2h
China x Philippines military clash before 2027? SELL No 86¢ $45 6h
China x Philippines military clash before 2027? BUY No 86¢ $45 7h
China x Philippines military clash before 2027? SELL No 86¢ $40 23h
China x Philippines military clash before 2027? BUY No 86¢ $40 25h
China x Philippines military clash before 2027? SELL Yes 16¢ $6 36h
China x Philippines military clash before 2027? BUY Yes 16¢ $6 38h
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 31? SELL Yes 26¢ $9 2d
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 31? SELL Yes 26¢ $3 2d
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 31? BUY Yes 25¢ $11 2d
China x Philippines military clash before 2027? SELL Yes 22¢ $2 4d
China x Philippines military clash before 2027? SELL Yes 22¢ $2 4d
China x Philippines military clash before 2027? BUY Yes 22¢ $5 4d
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL Yes $2 5d
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY Yes $2 5d
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY Yes $0 5d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? SELL No 96¢ $40 6d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? BUY No 96¢ $40 6d
US strike on Cuba by December 31? SELL Yes 53¢ $19 6d
US strike on Cuba by December 31? SELL Yes 53¢ $25 6d
US strike on Cuba by December 31? BUY Yes 53¢ $45 6d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? SELL Yes 90¢ $44 6d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? BUY Yes 90¢ $44 6d
US strike on Cuba by December 31? SELL Yes 48¢ $17 20d
US strike on Cuba by December 31? SELL Yes 47¢ $6 20d
US strike on Cuba by December 31? SELL Yes 47¢ $21 20d
US strike on Cuba by December 31? BUY Yes 47¢ $44 20d
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? SELL No 77¢ $15 21d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 175 history records