Wallet analysis

2026-06-13T21:33:02+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0E
0x0e02…70e6
other · 143 markets active 0h ago
0.0score
−$57 -4%
TOTAL PnL · realized −$9 · open −$38
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP ⚠ High turnover
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$59
Realized−$9
Unrealized−$38
Win rate (resolved)33%
Wins / losses33 / 68
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions42
Markets (closed)101 / 143
History coverage20d
Avg bet$9
Trades / day21.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit69%
Chart Positions 42 History 101 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$16
7 days−$17
14 days−$27
30 days−$9
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? No 74¢ 73¢ $6 $6 −$0 (-0%)
Will Ecuador win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 1¢ 1¢ $4 $3 −$1 (-17%)
Will USD/JPY hit 120 (Low) in 2026? Yes 12¢ 12¢ $3 $3 −$0 (-5%)
Will the Fed Pause–Pause–Cut in the next three decisions (Jun–Jul–Sep)? No 98¢ 92¢ $3 $3 −$0 (-6%)
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 2¢ 2¢ $2 $3 +$0 (+3%)
Will Croatia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 1¢ 1¢ $3 $3 −$0 (-15%)
Will Iran win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $3 $2 −$1 (-25%)
Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by September 30? Yes 22¢ 16¢ $3 $2 −$1 (-24%)
Will the Fed decide differently in the next three decisions (Jun–Jul–Sep)? Yes 24¢ 10¢ $5 $2 −$3 (-58%)
Will inflation reach more than 5% in 2026? Yes 29¢ 17¢ $4 $2 −$1 (-41%)
Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by June 30? Yes 6¢ 3¢ $4 $2 −$2 (-46%)
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by June 30, 2026? No 91¢ 94¢ $2 $2 +$0 (+4%)
Will Senegal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 1¢ 1¢ $2 $2 −$0 (-7%)
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 2¢ 2¢ $2 $2 −$0 (-11%)
Congress passes Iran war powers resolution by June 30? Yes 21¢ 7¢ $5 $2 −$3 (-67%)
US-Iran nuclear deal by July 31? No 55¢ 33¢ $3 $2 −$1 (-40%)
Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by June 22? Yes 7¢ 2¢ $5 $1 −$4 (-71%)
Will North America (CONCACAF) win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 2¢ 4¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+46%)
Will a Chinese company have the best AI model by December 31? Yes 12¢ 8¢ $2 $1 −$1 (-29%)
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 4¢ 5¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+24%)
Will S&P 500 (SPY) hit (LOW) $700 in June? Yes 17¢ 20¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+21%)
Trump announces US x Iran ceasefire over by June 15? Yes 1¢ 1¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-15%)
Will Mexico win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 1¢ 1¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+4%)
Will S&P 500 (SPY) hit (LOW) $690 in June? Yes 12¢ 12¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+0%)
Will Colombia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 2¢ 2¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-8%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 5:15PM-5:20PM ET Jun 13 $2 $0 -22%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 5:10PM-5:15PM ET Jun 13 $1 −$1 -94%
Will the Fed Pause–Pause–Pause in the next three decisions (Jun–Jul–Se Jun 13 $3 $0 -10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 4:15PM-4:20PM ET Jun 13 $4 −$3 -73%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 4:10PM-4:15PM ET Jun 13 $1 −$1 -95%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 13 $43 −$3 -6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 4:05PM-4:10PM ET Jun 13 $7 −$4 -56%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 4:00PM-4:05PM ET Jun 13 $6 +$2 +34%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 3:55PM-4:00PM ET Jun 13 $2 −$2 -95%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 5:45PM-6:00PM ET Jun 12 $6 −$2 -31%
Hyperliquid Up or Down - June 12, 5:45PM-6:00PM ET Jun 12 $1 −$1 -95%
Hyperliquid Up or Down - June 12, 5:45PM-5:50PM ET Jun 12 $1 $0 +12%
Hyperliquid Up or Down - June 12, 5:40PM-5:45PM ET Jun 12 $2 −$2 -96%
Hyperliquid Up or Down - June 12, 5:35PM-5:40PM ET Jun 12 $1 +$3 +315%
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? Jun 12 $76 +$3 +5%
Will SpaceX’s closing share price on its first day of trading be at le Jun 11 $1 −$1 -96%
Will SpaceX’s closing share price on its first day of trading be less Jun 11 $2 −$2 -96%
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? Jun 11 $5 −$5 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 6:30PM-6:45PM ET Jun 11 $5 +$2 +45%
Will JD Vance win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 11 $5 $0 -0%
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on Decem Jun 11 $15 −$1 -5%
Will Bitcoin dip to $57,000 on June 6? Jun 06 $1 −$1 -94%
Will Bitcoin dip to $59,000 on June 6? Jun 06 $1 −$1 -94%
Will Bitcoin reach $62,000 on June 6? Jun 06 $1 −$1 -94%
Will Uruguay win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 06 $1 $0 -14%
Will Nithya Raman win the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election? Jun 06 $10 +$8 +77%
Will Switzerland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 06 $1 $0 -23%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? Jun 06 $78 −$1 -2%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by August 31, 2026? Jun 06 $10 $0 +3%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by October 31, 2026? Jun 06 $5 $0 -0%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 7, 2026? Jun 05 $22 −$2 -10%
S&P 500 (SPY) closes above $740 on June 5? Jun 05 $2 +$7 +328%
S&P 500 (SPY) closes above $745 on June 5? Jun 05 $2 +$5 +225%
Will S&P 500 (SPY) hit (LOW) $725 Week of June 1 2026? Jun 05 $2 −$1 -71%
Will S&P 500 (SPY) hit (LOW) $730 Week of June 1 2026? Jun 05 $21 −$16 -77%
S&P 500 (SPY) closes above $750 on June 5? Jun 05 $1 $0 +47%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by October 31, 2026? Jun 05 $5 $0 -2%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by December 31, 2026? Jun 04 $25 −$2 -9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 8:00PM-12:00AM ET Jun 04 $19 +$20 +105%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 10:10PM-10:15PM ET Jun 04 $3 −$3 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 10:05PM-10:10PM ET Jun 04 $3 −$2 -63%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 10:00PM-10:05PM ET Jun 04 $1 −$1 -94%
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $120 by end of June? Jun 04 $5 −$1 -29%
Will Crude Oil reach a new all-time high by September 30? Jun 04 $5 −$1 -16%
Will Hyperliquid reach $92 in June? Jun 04 $29 −$16 -56%
Will Nithya Raman & Spencer Pratt advance to the second round of the 2 Jun 03 $6 −$6 -96%
Will Steve Hilton win the California Governor Election in 2026? Jun 03 $6 −$1 -20%
Will Steve Hilton advance from the 2026 California Governor primary el Jun 02 $2 $0 -7%
Will Steve Hilton finish first in the 2026 California Governor primary Jun 02 $4 $0 -2%
Will Hyperliquid reach $84 in June? Jun 02 $5 −$2 -41%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
world 58% +$34
other 20% −$34
finance 7% −$20
crypto 6% −$2
politics 5% −$15
tech 3% −$5
economics 1% −$3
sports 0% −$2
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 5:15PM-5:20PM ET BUY Down 32¢ $1 15m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 5:15PM-5:20PM ET BUY Up 62¢ $1 16m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 5:10PM-5:15PM ET BUY Up 2¢ $1 19m
Will the Fed Pause–Pause–Pause in the next three decisions (Jun–Jul–Se SELL No 28¢ $3 20m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 4:15PM-4:20PM ET BUY Up 68¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 4:15PM-4:20PM ET SELL Down 24¢ $0 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 4:15PM-4:20PM ET BUY Up 65¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 4:15PM-4:20PM ET BUY Up 59¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 4:15PM-4:20PM ET BUY Down 61¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 4:10PM-4:15PM ET BUY Up 30¢ $1 1h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL No 49¢ $2 1h
Will Crude Oil reach a new all-time high by December 31? SELL Yes 20¢ $2 1h
Trump announces US x Iran ceasefire over by June 15? SELL Yes 0¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 4:05PM-4:10PM ET BUY Down 87¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 4:05PM-4:10PM ET BUY Down 87¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 4:05PM-4:10PM ET SELL Up 17¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 4:05PM-4:10PM ET BUY Down 82¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 4:05PM-4:10PM ET BUY Down 78¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 4:05PM-4:10PM ET BUY Up 19¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 4:05PM-4:10PM ET BUY Up 32¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 4:05PM-4:10PM ET BUY Up 48¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 4:00PM-4:05PM ET SELL Down 99¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 4:00PM-4:05PM ET BUY Down 77¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 4:00PM-4:05PM ET BUY Down 74¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 4:00PM-4:05PM ET BUY Down 72¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 4:00PM-4:05PM ET BUY Down 72¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 4:00PM-4:05PM ET SELL Up 37¢ $3 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 4:00PM-4:05PM ET BUY Up 24¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 4:00PM-4:05PM ET BUY Up 25¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 3:55PM-4:00PM ET BUY Up 6¢ $1 1h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +26%
net ROI/market (all)-23.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 21 -31.6% -38.2% 24% 19% -17.7%
≤30d 101 -15.0% -23.1% 33% 26% -10.3%
≤90d 101 -15.0% -23.1% 33% 26% -10.3%
all 101 -15.0% -23.1% 33% 26% -10.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover21.1 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -23.1% 26% -10.3%
10% ← realistic here -30.4% 21% -18.9%
15% -37.1% 17% -26.7%
20% -43.3% 14% -33.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $58.81 · official $58.82 (match) · 443 history records