Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T05:38:33+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.5
score
0E 0x0e02…9136 other 64 markets active 1h ago coverage 42d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$147 (+6%) realized +$166 · open −$19
Gross ROI / mkt -5% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -14% what you keep after slip
Net edge-14%after slip
Net WR57%break-even
Win rate57%36W / 27L
Drawdown98%max
Avg bet$41per market
Trades / day2.1pace
Fees−$14est.
Kalshi-fit47%portable
Net worth$16now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$75
7 days−$48
14 days−$149
30 days−$119
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 60% +$38
sports 40% +$56
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +57%
net ROI/market (all)-13.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 15 -12.3% -20.7% 53% 53% -17.6%
≤30d 31 -15.3% -23.3% 52% 52% -18.8%
≤90d 63 -4.6% -13.6% 57% 57% -5.6%
all 63 -4.6% -13.6% 57% 57% -5.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.1 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -13.6% 57% -5.6%
10% -21.9% 52% -14.6%
15% -29.5% 48% -22.9%
20% -36.4% 33% -30.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 7% · top 2 14% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +4% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -5% · $-wt +4% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +5% → late -14% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$29 vs −$34 · ×0.84 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.12 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

42d coverage
Net worth$16
Realized+$166
Unrealized−$19
Win rate (resolved)57%
Wins / losses36 / 27
Est. fees paid−$14
Open positions1
Markets (closed)63 / 64
History coverage42d
Avg bet$41
Trades / day2.1
Drawdown98%
Kalshi-fit47%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 63 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? Yes 85¢ 38¢ $35 $16 −$19 (-55%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $28 +$6 +20%
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 3.5 Jun 17 $10 −$10 -100%
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 4.5 Jun 17 $10 −$10 -100%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 17 $76 −$76 -100%
Will Norway win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $27 +$6 +23%
Spread: Norway (-2.5) Jun 17 $6 +$11 +170%
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $65 −$65 -100%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs Spirit (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stag Jun 13 $5 −$5 -100%
United States vs. Paraguay: O/U 2.5 Jun 13 $36 +$57 +158%
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs BetBoom Team (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Jun 12 $35 +$6 +19%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Legacy - Map 2 Winner Jun 12 $25 +$10 +40%
Spread: Portugal (-2.5) Jun 12 $20 −$20 -100%
Spread: Mexico (-2.5) Jun 12 $30 −$30 -100%
Korea Republic vs. Czechia: O/U 1.5 Jun 12 $87 +$38 +44%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? Jun 11 $82 +$35 +42%
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-05-30? Jun 09 $61 −$61 -100%
Will Spain win on 2026-06-08? Jun 09 $42 +$7 +17%
Germany vs. Finland: O/U 4.5 Jun 09 $47 −$47 -100%
Spread: Germany (-2.5) May 31 $49 +$44 +89%
Will Crystal Palace FC win on 2026-05-27? May 27 $35 +$35 +101%
Will Manchester City FC win on 2026-05-24? May 25 $38 −$38 -100%
Will Liverpool FC win on 2026-05-17? May 25 $47 −$47 -100%
Exact Score: SC Freiburg 0 - 0 Aston Villa FC? May 25 $10 −$10 -100%
Will Club Atlético de Madrid win on 2026-05-24? May 25 $31 −$31 -100%
Will Aston Villa FC vs. Liverpool FC end in a draw? May 25 $20 −$20 -100%
SC Freiburg vs. Aston Villa FC: Both Teams to Score May 25 $29 −$29 -100%
Inter Miami CF vs. Philadelphia Union: O/U 3.5 May 25 $35 +$27 +76%
Villarreal CF vs. Club Atlético de Madrid: Both Teams to Score May 24 $24 +$10 +43%
Manchester City FC vs. Aston Villa FC: Both Teams to Score May 24 $56 +$38 +68%
Bologna FC 1909 vs. FC Internazionale Milano: Both Teams to Score May 23 $43 +$28 +64%
Will Racing Club de Lens win on 2026-05-22? May 22 $48 +$25 +52%
Will Inter Miami CF win on 2026-05-17? May 18 $56 +$18 +32%
FC Barcelona vs. Real Betis Balompié: Both Teams to Score May 17 $35 +$22 +62%
Will Racing Club de Lens win on 2026-05-17? May 17 $49 +$25 +50%
Will Club Atlético de Madrid win on 2026-05-17? May 17 $57 +$47 +82%
Sevilla FC vs. Real Madrid CF: O/U 2.5 May 17 $21 +$10 +50%
Club Atlético de Madrid vs. Girona FC: O/U 2.5 May 17 $3 +$4 +128%
Will Manchester United FC win on 2026-05-17? May 17 $87 +$21 +24%
Aston Villa FC vs. Liverpool FC: Both Teams to Score May 15 $46 +$30 +64%
Girona FC vs. Real Sociedad de Fútbol: Both Teams to Score May 15 $56 +$38 +67%
Exact Score: Tottenham Hotspur FC 1 - 0 Leeds United FC? May 14 $3 −$3 -100%
Will Elche CF win on 2026-05-12? May 14 $48 −$48 -100%
Will Leeds United FC win on 2026-05-11? May 14 $18 −$18 -100%
Will Aston Villa FC win on 2026-05-10? May 14 $62 −$62 -100%
Will West Ham United FC vs. Arsenal FC end in a draw? May 14 $12 −$12 -100%
Will Liverpool FC win on 2026-05-09? May 14 $32 −$32 -100%
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-05-06? May 14 $21 −$21 -100%
Tottenham Hotspur FC vs. Leeds United FC: O/U 2.5 May 14 $40 −$40 -100%
Spread: FC Barcelona (-2.5) May 14 $37 −$37 -100%
FC Barcelona vs. Real Madrid CF: Both Teams to Score May 14 $98 −$98 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 85¢ $35 1h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 82¢ $28 4h
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 4.5 BUY Over 10¢ $10 4h
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 24¢ $10 4h
Spread: Norway (-2.5) BUY Norway 36¢ $6 7h
Will Norway win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 80¢ $27 7h
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 83¢ $76 3d
United States vs. Paraguay: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 38¢ $36 4d
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs Spirit (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stag BUY Aurora Gaming 46¢ $5 4d
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs BetBoom Team (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major SELL BetBoom Team 99¢ $41 4d
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs BetBoom Team (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major BUY BetBoom Team 83¢ $35 4d
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Legacy - Map 2 Winner SELL Natus Vincere 100¢ $35 4d
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Legacy - Map 2 Winner BUY Natus Vincere 71¢ $25 4d
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? BUY Yes 54¢ $65 4d
Korea Republic vs. Czechia: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 69¢ $87 5d
Spread: Mexico (-2.5) BUY Mexico 41¢ $30 5d
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? SELL Yes 99¢ $117 5d
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? BUY Yes 69¢ $82 5d
Spread: Portugal (-2.5) BUY Portugal 27¢ $20 6d
Will Spain win on 2026-06-08? BUY Yes 85¢ $42 8d
Germany vs. Finland: O/U 4.5 BUY Over 71¢ $47 16d
Spread: Germany (-2.5) SELL Germany 98¢ $93 16d
Spread: Germany (-2.5) BUY Germany 51¢ $49 16d
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-05-30? BUY Yes 38¢ $61 17d
Will Crystal Palace FC win on 2026-05-27? SELL Yes 100¢ $70 20d
Will Crystal Palace FC win on 2026-05-27? BUY Yes 49¢ $35 20d
Inter Miami CF vs. Philadelphia Union: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 56¢ $35 23d
Villarreal CF vs. Club Atlético de Madrid: Both Teams to Score SELL Yes 100¢ $34 23d
Villarreal CF vs. Club Atlético de Madrid: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 69¢ $24 23d
Will Club Atlético de Madrid win on 2026-05-24? BUY Yes 38¢ $31 23d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $15.67 · official $15.67 (match) · 127 history records