Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T23:57:16+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

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0E 0x0e01…7ef0 sports 785 markets active 0h ago coverage 104d ⚠
TRAPdo not copy sports specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 103d only
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL −$1,146 (-3%) realized −$1,059 · open −$87
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -3% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -19% what you keep after slip
Net edge-19%after slip
Net WR46%break-even
Win rate53%408W / 361L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$43per market
Trades / day19.2pace
Fees−$17est.
Kalshi-fit76%portable
Net worth$1,402now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$260
7 days+$676
14 days+$676
30 days+$164
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 79% −$1,288
other 21% +$308
world 0% +$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +46%
net ROI/market (all)-12.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 190 +6.4% -3.8% 78% 55% -1.0%
≤30d 195 +3.6% -6.2% 76% 54% -4.4%
≤90d 328 -3.4% -12.6% 63% 48% -8.2%
all 769 -3.0% -12.3% 53% 46% -11.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover19.2 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -12.3% 46% -11.2%
10% -20.7% 37% -19.7%
15% -28.3% 33% -27.5%
20% -35.4% 29% -34.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 6% · top 2 8% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
13% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -3% · $-wt -3% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -1% → late -5% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.5 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$29 vs −$36 · ×0.82 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.93 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

104d coverage
Net worth$1,402
Realized−$1,059
Unrealized−$87
Win rate (resolved)53%
Wins / losses408 / 361
Est. fees paid−$17
Open positions16
Markets (closed)769 / 785
History coverage104d ⚠
Avg bet$43
Trades / day19.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit76%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 16 History 769 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Antoine Semenyo: 1+ assists No 83¢ 94¢ $40 $45 +$5 (+13%)
Ismael Díaz: 1+ goals No 89¢ 74¢ $50 $42 −$8 (-16%)
Jude Bellingham: 1+ assists No 85¢ 88¢ $40 $41 +$1 (+3%)
Cecilio Waterman: 2+ goals No 93¢ 87¢ $35 $32 −$2 (-6%)
Antoine Semenyo: 1+ goals No 72¢ 88¢ $25 $30 +$6 (+22%)
Eldor Shomurodov: 1+ goals No 81¢ 82¢ $19 $19 +$0 (+2%)
Adalberto Carrasquilla: 1+ goals No 90¢ 79¢ $18 $16 −$2 (-12%)
Anthony Gordon: 1+ assists No 89¢ 50¢ $18 $10 −$8 (-44%)
Abdul Fatawu Issahaku: 1+ assists No 93¢ 50¢ $18 $9 −$8 (-47%)
John Stones: 1+ assists No 95¢ 50¢ $17 $9 −$8 (-47%)
Bukayo Saka: 1+ assists No 86¢ 12¢ $43 $6 −$37 (-86%)
Jordan Ayew: 1+ goals No 76¢ 87¢ $5 $5 +$1 (+14%)
Cecilio Waterman: 1+ goals No 68¢ 83¢ $4 $5 +$1 (+22%)
Iñaki Williams: 1+ goals No 85¢ 78¢ $4 $4 −$0 (-8%)
Noni Madueke: 1+ assists No 95¢ 63¢ $5 $3 −$2 (-34%)
Declan Rice: 1+ assists No 80¢ 3¢ $26 $1 −$25 (-97%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 42 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Anthony Gordon: 1+ goals Jun 17 $24 +$4 +19%
Declan Rice: 1+ goals Jun 17 $35 +$4 +13%
João Cancelo: 1+ goals Jun 17 $1 $0 +11%
Cédric Bakambu: 1+ goals Jun 17 $27 +$4 +16%
Nuno Mendes: 1+ goals Jun 17 $38 +$5 +13%
Cristiano Ronaldo: 2+ goals Jun 17 $72 −$24 -34%
Samu Costa: 1+ goals Jun 17 $49 +$4 +8%
Rafael Leão: 1+ goals Jun 17 $50 +$10 +20%
João Félix: 1+ goals Jun 17 $50 +$15 +31%
Bernardo Silva: 1+ goals Jun 17 $64 +$18 +29%
Pedro Neto: 1+ goals Jun 17 $78 +$16 +21%
Rúben Neves: 1+ goals Jun 17 $51 +$49 +97%
Jude Bellingham: 1+ goals Jun 17 $31 −$31 -100%
Petar Musa: 1+ goals Jun 17 $23 −$23 -100%
Noni Madueke: 1+ goals Jun 17 $10 +$2 +24%
Harry Kane: 1+ goals Jun 17 $35 −$35 -100%
Ante Budimir: 1+ assists Jun 17 $85 +$6 +6%
Anthony Gordon: 2+ goals Jun 17 $10 $0 +5%
Harry Kane: 2+ goals Jun 17 $35 −$35 -100%
Martin Baturina: 1+ goals Jun 17 $40 −$40 -100%
Marcus Rashford: 2+ goals Jun 17 $10 $0 +5%
Andrej Kramarić: 1+ goals Jun 17 $48 +$6 +12%
Igor Matanović: 1+ goals Jun 17 $50 +$6 +12%
Toni Fruk: 1+ goals Jun 17 $49 +$4 +9%
Bukayo Saka: 1+ goals Jun 17 $50 +$5 +9%
Eberechi Eze: 1+ goals Jun 17 $35 +$6 +16%
Bruno Fernandes: 1+ assists Jun 17 $145 −$110 -76%
Francisco Conceição: 1+ goals Jun 17 $51 +$6 +11%
Francisco Conceição: 1+ assists Jun 17 $21 +$4 +22%
Cristiano Ronaldo: 1+ goals Jun 17 $211 +$210 +100%
Bruno Fernandes: 1+ goals Jun 17 $60 +$17 +28%
João Neves: 1+ goals Jun 17 $10 −$10 -100%
Cristiano Ronaldo: 1+ assists Jun 17 $34 +$6 +16%
Will Norway win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $99 +$16 +16%
Ali Jasim: 1+ goals Jun 17 $9 +$1 +6%
Amine Gouiri: 2+ goals Jun 17 $10 $0 +5%
Mousa Ta'mari: 1+ goals Jun 17 $9 +$1 +11%
Michael Gregoritsch: 1+ goals Jun 17 $10 +$5 +52%
Enzo Fernández: 1+ assists Jun 17 $11 +$4 +33%
Alexander Sørloth: 2+ goals Jun 17 $14 +$1 +5%
Valentín Barco: 1+ goals Jun 17 $16 +$1 +6%
Enzo Fernández: 1+ goals Jun 17 $15 +$3 +20%
Stefan Posch: 1+ goals Jun 17 $21 +$1 +3%
Amine Gouiri: 1+ goals Jun 17 $22 +$4 +19%
Patrick Berg: 1+ goals Jun 17 $28 +$2 +8%
Cristian Romero: 1+ goals Jun 17 $33 +$3 +8%
Martin Ødegaard: 1+ goals Jun 17 $29 +$8 +27%
Kristian Thorstvedt: 1+ goals Jun 17 $36 +$4 +12%
Alexis Mac Allister: 1+ goals Jun 17 $36 +$5 +15%
Xaver Schlager: 1+ goals Jun 17 $42 +$3 +6%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Antoine Semenyo: 1+ goals BUY No 76¢ $4 23m
Antoine Semenyo: 1+ goals BUY No 74¢ $3 39m
Antoine Semenyo: 1+ goals BUY No 72¢ $8 40m
Cecilio Waterman: 1+ goals BUY No 68¢ $4 50m
Antoine Semenyo: 1+ goals BUY No 71¢ $10 53m
Ismael Díaz: 1+ goals BUY No 89¢ $50 1h
Iñaki Williams: 1+ goals BUY No 85¢ $4 1h
Cecilio Waterman: 2+ goals BUY No 95¢ $17 1h
Antoine Semenyo: 1+ assists BUY No 83¢ $17 1h
Antoine Semenyo: 1+ assists BUY No 83¢ $17 1h
Abdul Fatawu Issahaku: 1+ assists BUY No 93¢ $18 1h
Antoine Semenyo: 1+ assists BUY No 83¢ $5 1h
Jordan Ayew: 1+ goals BUY No 76¢ $5 2h
Jude Bellingham: 1+ assists BUY No 95¢ $5 2h
Noni Madueke: 1+ assists BUY No 95¢ $5 2h
Anthony Gordon: 1+ goals BUY No 86¢ $4 3h
Declan Rice: 1+ goals BUY No 90¢ $10 3h
Jude Bellingham: 1+ goals BUY No 82¢ $5 3h
Petar Musa: 1+ goals BUY No 84¢ $9 3h
Eldor Shomurodov: 1+ goals BUY No 81¢ $19 3h
Anthony Gordon: 1+ goals BUY No 86¢ $9 3h
Jude Bellingham: 1+ goals BUY No 82¢ $10 3h
Petar Musa: 1+ goals BUY No 81¢ $4 3h
Noni Madueke: 1+ goals BUY No 81¢ $10 3h
Declan Rice: 1+ goals BUY No 88¢ $10 3h
Anthony Gordon: 1+ goals BUY No 82¢ $10 3h
Jude Bellingham: 1+ goals BUY No 82¢ $10 3h
Petar Musa: 1+ goals BUY No 88¢ $9 3h
Jude Bellingham: 1+ goals BUY No 78¢ $7 3h
Harry Kane: 1+ goals BUY No 55¢ $6 3h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $1,402.50 · official $1,402.50 (match) · 3500 history records