Wallet analysis

2026-06-20T10:51:59+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.5
score
0D 0x0dff…5443 other 5 markets active 2h ago coverage 62d
RISKYcopy with care ⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$67 (-30%) realized −$67 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -60% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -64% what you keep after slip
Net edge-64%after slip
Net WR20%break-even
Win rate20%1W / 4L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$45per market
Trades / day0.1pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit40%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$52
7 days−$52
14 days−$56
30 days−$56
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 47% −$4
politics 44% −$52
sports 9% −$20
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +20%
net ROI/market (all)-63.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 1 -51.4% -56.1% 0% 0% -56.1%
≤30d 4 -50.1% -54.8% 25% 25% -34.2%
≤90d 5 -60.0% -63.9% 20% 20% -40.0%
all 5 -60.0% -63.9% 20% 20% -40.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.1 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -63.9% 20% -40.0%
10% -67.3% 20% -45.7%
15% -70.5% 20% -50.9%
20% -73.4% 20% -55.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 100% · top 2 100% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -34% too few recent
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -60% · $-wt -34% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$34 vs −$27 · ×1.24 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.31 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

62d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$67
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)20%
Wins / losses1 / 4
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions0
Markets (closed)5 / 5
History coverage62d
Avg bet$45
Trades / day0.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit40%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 5 Trades
no open positions (3 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Trump be in the WC Champions Photo? Jun 20 $100 −$52 -51%
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from June 6 to June 8, 2026? Jun 13 $66 +$34 +51%
Will Elon Musk post 90-114 tweets from June 6 to June 8, 2026? Jun 08 $2 −$2 -95%
Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from June 6 to June 8, 2026? Jun 08 $37 −$36 -97%
UFC Fight Night: Joselyne Edwards vs. Norma Dumont (Women's Bantamweig Apr 19 $20 −$20 -99%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Trump be in the WC Champions Photo? SELL No 44¢ $49 1h
Will Trump be in the WC Champions Photo? BUY No 88¢ $100 7d
Will Elon Musk post 90-114 tweets from June 6 to June 8, 2026? BUY Yes 2¢ $2 12d
Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from June 6 to June 8, 2026? BUY Yes 36¢ $37 12d
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from June 6 to June 8, 2026? BUY Yes 65¢ $66 12d
UFC Fight Night: Joselyne Edwards vs. Norma Dumont (Women's Bantamweig BUY Norma Dumont 66¢ $20 61d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 7 history records