Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T04:46:28+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.5

score

0D 0x0dfe…1190 other 4 markets active 1h ago coverage 1d

RISKYcopy with care ⚠ Small sample

✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ only 1d of captured history — unreliable✗ negative after realistic slippage

Total PnL +$143 (+11%) realized +$38 · open +$105

Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗

Gross ROI / mkt +4% what the leader earns

→−copy tax

Net edge / mkt -10% what you keep after slip

Net edge-10%after slip

Net WR0%break-even

Win rate100%2W / 0L

Drawdown0%max

Avg bet$326per market

Trades / day4.2pace

Kalshi-fit25%portable

Net worth$614now

Equity curve

realized PnL

Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 1d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net

insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge

break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even

chance a trade nets +0%

net ROI/market (all)-6.0%

timeframe	markets	gross ROI	NET ROI	gross WR	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
≤7d	2	+3.9%	-6.0%	100%	0%	-5.6%
≤30d	2	+3.9%	-6.0%	100%	0%	-5.6%
≤90d	2	+3.9%	-6.0%	100%	0%	-5.6%
all	2	+3.9%	-6.0%	100%	0%	-5.6%

gross = as the leader traded. net = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip

turnover4.2 tr/day

realistic slip~7%

edge survives to0%

copier slippage	NET ROI	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here	-6.0%	0%	-5.6%
10%	-15.0%	0%	-14.6%
15%	-23.2%	0%	-22.9%
20%	-30.8%	0%	-30.4%

Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a trap: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill

Profit concentration

top 87% · top 2 100% thin sample

Edge freshness (90d)

90d ROI +4% too few recent

Fragile wins

100% wins margin < slip thin sample

Flat-copyable

equal-wt +4% · $-wt +4% works when copied flat

Big bets

big-bet WR —% no data

Persistence

early —% → late —% no data

Add-ons / DCA

1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries

Win / loss size

+$17 vs — no data

Profit factor

— no data

Copy size

≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

1d coverage

Net worth$614

Realized+$38

Unrealized+$105

Win rate (resolved)100%

Wins / losses2 / 0

Open positions2

Markets (closed)2 / 4

History coverage1d

Avg bet$326

Trades / day4.2

Drawdown0%

Kalshi-fit25%

Ledger

positions · history · trades

Positions 2 History 2 Trades

Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket

Market	outcome	entry	now	invested	value	unrealized PnL
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by July 1?	No	21¢	34¢	$200	$313	+$113 (+56%)
Will Anthropic’s valuation hit (HIGH) $1.1T by June 30?	Yes	63¢	62¢	$309	$302	−$7 (-2%)

Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).

Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first

Market	when	invested	PnL	ROI
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 16, 2026?	Jun 17	$310	+$4	+1%
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by June 15?	Jun 16	$476	+$30	+6%

Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.

Latest trades by this wallet

Market	side	price	size	when
Will Anthropic’s valuation hit (HIGH) $1.1T by June 30?	BUY Yes	63¢	$314	1h
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 16, 2026?	SELL No	93¢	$314	1h
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 16, 2026?	BUY No	92¢	$310	11h
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by July 1?	BUY No	21¢	$206	21h
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by June 15?	BUY No	98¢	$360	28h
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by June 15?	BUY No	84¢	$116	35h

From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.

✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $614.11 · official $614.11 (match) · 7 history records