Wallet analysis

2026-06-20T09:46:21+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
0D 0x0dfe…5749 sports 10 markets active 6d ago coverage 575d
RISKYcopy with care sports specialist⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$248 (-4%) realized −$248 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -9% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -21% what you keep after slip
Net edge-21%after slip
Net WR60%break-even
Win rate60%6W / 4L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$614per market
Trades / day0.2pace
Fees−$65est.
Kalshi-fit90%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 575d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 98% −$163
tech 2% −$100
other 1% −$50
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +60%
net ROI/market (all)-17.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 7 +8.2% -2.1% 71% 71% -20.7%
≤30d 10 -9.0% -17.7% 60% 60% -14.1%
≤90d 10 -9.0% -17.7% 60% 60% -14.1%
all 10 -9.0% -17.7% 60% 60% -14.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.2 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -17.7% 60% -14.1%
10% -25.6% 60% -22.4%
15% -32.7% 60% -29.9%
20% -39.3% 40% -36.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 25% · top 2 44% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -5% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -9% · $-wt -5% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
12.6 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$318 vs −$555 · ×0.57 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.86 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

575d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$248
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)60%
Wins / losses6 / 4
Est. fees paid−$65
Open positions0
Markets (closed)10 / 10
History coverage575d
Avg bet$614
Trades / day0.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit90%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 10 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
LoL: Top Esports vs Bilibili Gaming - Game 3 Winner Jun 14 $455 +$260 +57%
LoL: Top Esports vs Bilibili Gaming - Game 2 Winner Jun 14 $455 +$287 +63%
LoL: Top Esports vs Bilibili Gaming - Game 1 Winner Jun 14 $451 +$296 +66%
LoL: Team WE vs Bilibili Gaming - Game 2 Winner Jun 13 $931 −$931 -100%
LoL: Team WE vs Bilibili Gaming - Game 3 Winner Jun 13 $1,140 −$1,140 -100%
LoL: Team WE vs Bilibili Gaming (BO5) - LPL Playoffs Jun 13 $1,054 +$376 +36%
LoL: Team WE vs Bilibili Gaming - Game 4 Winner Jun 13 $613 +$220 +36%
LoL: Anyone's Legend vs Bilibili Gaming - Game 3 Winner Jun 08 $891 +$468 +52%
Will Mike Tyson win his boxing match against Jake Paul? Jun 08 $50 −$50 -100%
TikTok banned in the US before May 2025? Jun 08 $100 −$100 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
LoL: Top Esports vs Bilibili Gaming - Game 3 Winner SELL Bilibili Gaming 99¢ $715 5d
LoL: Top Esports vs Bilibili Gaming - Game 3 Winner BUY Bilibili Gaming 62¢ $455 5d
LoL: Top Esports vs Bilibili Gaming - Game 2 Winner SELL Bilibili Gaming 99¢ $742 5d
LoL: Top Esports vs Bilibili Gaming - Game 2 Winner BUY Bilibili Gaming 60¢ $455 6d
LoL: Top Esports vs Bilibili Gaming - Game 1 Winner SELL Bilibili Gaming 99¢ $747 6d
LoL: Top Esports vs Bilibili Gaming - Game 1 Winner BUY Bilibili Gaming 60¢ $1 6d
LoL: Top Esports vs Bilibili Gaming - Game 1 Winner BUY Bilibili Gaming 59¢ $450 6d
LoL: Team WE vs Bilibili Gaming (BO5) - LPL Playoffs SELL Bilibili Gaming 99¢ $1,431 6d
LoL: Team WE vs Bilibili Gaming (BO5) - LPL Playoffs BUY Bilibili Gaming 71¢ $110 6d
LoL: Team WE vs Bilibili Gaming (BO5) - LPL Playoffs BUY Bilibili Gaming 66¢ $111 6d
LoL: Team WE vs Bilibili Gaming (BO5) - LPL Playoffs BUY Bilibili Gaming 74¢ $376 6d
LoL: Team WE vs Bilibili Gaming (BO5) - LPL Playoffs BUY Bilibili Gaming 74¢ $3 6d
LoL: Team WE vs Bilibili Gaming (BO5) - LPL Playoffs BUY Bilibili Gaming 73¢ $454 6d
LoL: Team WE vs Bilibili Gaming - Game 4 Winner SELL Bilibili Gaming 99¢ $833 6d
LoL: Team WE vs Bilibili Gaming - Game 4 Winner BUY Bilibili Gaming 70¢ $159 6d
LoL: Team WE vs Bilibili Gaming - Game 4 Winner BUY Bilibili Gaming 73¢ $454 6d
LoL: Team WE vs Bilibili Gaming - Game 3 Winner BUY Bilibili Gaming 27¢ $102 6d
LoL: Team WE vs Bilibili Gaming - Game 3 Winner BUY Bilibili Gaming 46¢ $112 6d
LoL: Team WE vs Bilibili Gaming - Game 3 Winner BUY Bilibili Gaming 55¢ $206 6d
LoL: Team WE vs Bilibili Gaming - Game 3 Winner BUY Bilibili Gaming 61¢ $6 6d
LoL: Team WE vs Bilibili Gaming - Game 3 Winner BUY Bilibili Gaming 61¢ $202 6d
LoL: Team WE vs Bilibili Gaming - Game 3 Winner BUY Bilibili Gaming 67¢ $4 6d
LoL: Team WE vs Bilibili Gaming - Game 3 Winner BUY Bilibili Gaming 69¢ $50 6d
LoL: Team WE vs Bilibili Gaming - Game 3 Winner BUY Bilibili Gaming 70¢ $454 6d
LoL: Team WE vs Bilibili Gaming - Game 3 Winner BUY Bilibili Gaming 79¢ $1 6d
LoL: Team WE vs Bilibili Gaming - Game 3 Winner BUY Bilibili Gaming 78¢ $1 6d
LoL: Team WE vs Bilibili Gaming - Game 3 Winner BUY Bilibili Gaming 80¢ $1 6d
LoL: Team WE vs Bilibili Gaming - Game 2 Winner BUY Bilibili Gaming 53¢ $48 6d
LoL: Team WE vs Bilibili Gaming - Game 2 Winner BUY Bilibili Gaming 53¢ $51 6d
LoL: Team WE vs Bilibili Gaming - Game 2 Winner BUY Bilibili Gaming 55¢ $51 6d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 141 history records