Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T09:08:02+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
0D 0x0dfb…63f6 sports 1104 markets active 0h ago coverage 58d ⚠
TRAPdo not copy sports specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 57d only
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! high turnover
Total PnL −$716 (-1%) realized −$684 · open −$32
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +1% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -22% what you keep after slip
Net edge-22%after slip
Net WR8%break-even
Win rate90%982W / 107L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$87per market
Trades / day42.1pace
Fees−$117est.
Kalshi-fit93%portable
Net worth$2,026now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$42
7 days+$51
14 days−$5
30 days+$237
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 90% −$1,063
other 10% +$359
world 0% +$32
crypto 0% +$5
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +8%
net ROI/market (all)-8.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 833 +0.1% -9.5% 100% 0% -9.5%
≤30d 880 -0.2% -9.7% 98% 1% -9.3%
≤90d 1089 +1.2% -8.5% 90% 8% -10.1%
all 1089 +1.2% -8.5% 90% 8% -10.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover42.1 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -8.5% 8% -10.1%
10% ← realistic here -17.2% 8% -18.7%
15% -25.2% 7% -26.6%
20% -32.6% 5% -33.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 6% · top 2 12% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
91% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +1% · $-wt -1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +2% → late +0% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
2.1 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$5 vs −$48 · ×0.1 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.88 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

58d coverage
Net worth$2,026
Realized−$684
Unrealized−$32
Win rate (resolved)90%
Wins / losses982 / 107
Est. fees paid−$117
Open positions15
Markets (closed)1089 / 1104
History coverage58d ⚠
Avg bet$87
Trades / day42.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit93%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 15 History 1089 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Dota 2: Vici Gaming vs Cloud Rising (BO3) - The International China Closed Qualifier Playoffs Vici Gaming 100¢ 100¢ $300 $300 +$0 (+0%)
Dota 2: InterActive Philippines vs Ivory - Game 1 Winner Ivory 100¢ 100¢ $300 $300 +$0 (+0%)
LoL: KT Rolster Challengers vs Dplus KIA Challengers - Game 1 Winner Dplus KIA Challengers 100¢ 100¢ $300 $300 +$0 (+0%)
Breen vs. Virc: Set 1 Games O/U 10.5 Under 100¢ 100¢ $170 $170 +$0 (+0%)
Masiianskaia vs. Lee: Set 1 Games O/U 10.5 Under 100¢ 100¢ $170 $170 +$0 (+0%)
Breen vs. Virc: Set 1 Games O/U 9.5 Under 100¢ 100¢ $134 $134 +$0 (+0%)
Panasa vs. Requena: Set 1 Games O/U 9.5 Under 100¢ 95¢ $114 $109 −$5 (-4%)
Panasa vs. Requena: Set 1 Games O/U 8.5 Under 100¢ 95¢ $114 $109 −$5 (-5%)
Breen vs. Virc: Set 1 Games O/U 8.5 Under 100¢ 91¢ $114 $104 −$10 (-9%)
Austria vs. Jordan: Team to Take First Corner Austria 100¢ 100¢ $103 $103 +$0 (+0%)
Stosovic vs. Argyrokastriti: Set 1 Games O/U 9.5 Under 100¢ 91¢ $114 $103 −$11 (-9%)
Panasa vs. Requena: Set 2 Games O/U 10.5 Under 100¢ 100¢ $50 $50 +$0 (+0%)
Games Total: O/U 3.5 Over 100¢ 100¢ $50 $50 +$0 (+0%)
ITF Sapporo: Tori Kinard vs Yuzuha Negishi Yuzuha Negishi 100¢ 100¢ $23 $23 +$0 (+0%)
Games Total: O/U 2.5 Over 100¢ 50¢ $5 $2 −$2 (-50%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 26 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Austria vs. Jordan: 1st Half O/U 3.5 Total Corners Jun 17 $122 $0 +0%
Austria vs. Jordan: 1st Half O/U 4.5 Total Corners Jun 17 $34 $0 +0%
Austria vs. Jordan: Jordan O/U 2.5 Corners Jun 17 $82 $0 +0%
Stusek vs. Kaegi: Set 1 Games O/U 10.5 Jun 17 $156 $0 +0%
Stusek vs. Kaegi: Set 1 Games O/U 9.5 Jun 17 $50 $0 +0%
Dota 2: Team Refuser vs Game Master - Game 2 Winner Jun 17 $300 $0 +0%
ITF Zhengzhou: Zongyu Li vs Hanna Chang Jun 17 $74 $0 +0%
France vs. Senegal: France O/U 4.5 Corners Jun 17 $0 $0 +0%
Austria leading at halftime? Jun 17 $300 $0 +0%
Austria to score first vs. Jordan? Jun 17 $300 $0 +0%
Qiu Yu Ye vs. Le Yi Liu: Total Sets O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $50 $0 +0%
Jordan to score first vs. Austria? Jun 17 $300 $0 +0%
Austria vs. Jordan: Austria 1st Half O/U 0.5 Jun 17 $159 $0 +0%
Austria vs. Jordan: Both Teams to Score in First Half Jun 17 $300 $0 +0%
Austria vs. Jordan: 1st Half O/U 0.5 Jun 17 $300 $0 +0%
ITF Maanshan: Kasidit Samrej vs Alberto Lim Jun 17 $300 $0 +0%
ITF Taipei: Nao Nishino vs Kristiana Sidorova Jun 17 $50 $0 +0%
Kim vs. Bouzige: Match O/U 21.5 Jun 17 $5 $0 +0%
ITF Tokyo: Sora Fukuda vs Shunsuke Nakagawa Jun 17 $300 $0 +0%
Kim vs. Bouzige: Set 2 Games O/U 9.5 Jun 17 $5 $0 +0%
ITF Taipei: Hikaru Sato vs Haruka Kaji Jun 17 $224 $0 +0%
Lee vs. Naklo: Set 2 Games O/U 8.5 Jun 17 $5 $0 +0%
Argentina vs. Algeria: Algeria O/U 1.5 Corners Jun 17 $9 $0 +0%
Argentina vs. Algeria: 1st Half O/U 5.5 Total Corners Jun 17 $62 $0 +0%
Argentina vs. Algeria: Team to Take First Corner Jun 17 $300 $0 +0%
Argentina vs. Algeria: 1st Half O/U 3.5 Total Corners Jun 17 $300 $0 +0%
Argentina to score first vs. Algeria? Jun 17 $300 $0 +0%
Argentina vs. Algeria: 1st Half O/U 0.5 Jun 17 $300 $0 +0%
Argentina vs. Algeria: 1st Half O/U 1.5 Jun 17 $300 $0 +0%
Argentina vs. Algeria: Argentina O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $300 $0 +0%
Argentina vs. Algeria: 2nd Half O/U 1.5 Jun 17 $126 $0 +0%
Argentina vs. Algeria: Both Teams to Score in First Half Jun 17 $50 $0 +0%
Argentina vs. Algeria: Argentina O/U 1.5 Jun 17 $300 $0 +0%
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 0.5 Jun 17 $300 $0 +0%
Dota 2: PlayTime vs Estar Backs (BO3) - The International South Americ Jun 17 $300 $0 +0%
ITF Irvine: Ingrid Carolina Millan Acosta vs Emery Combs Jun 17 $30 $0 +0%
Iraq to score first vs. Norway? Jun 17 $300 $0 +0%
Norway leading at halftime? Jun 17 $300 $0 +0%
Iraq vs. Norway: Team to Take First Corner Jun 17 $13 $0 +0%
Iraq vs. Norway: Iraq O/U 1.5 Corners Jun 17 $50 $0 +0%
Iraq leading at halftime? Jun 17 $300 $0 +0%
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 9.5 Total Corners Jun 17 $50 $0 +0%
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 8.5 Total Corners Jun 17 $300 $0 +0%
Will Iraq vs. Norway end in a draw? Jun 17 $50 $0 +0%
Will Iraq win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $50 $0 +0%
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 0.5 Jun 17 $300 $0 +0%
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $300 $0 +0%
Iraq vs. Norway: Norway O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $50 $0 +0%
Iraq vs. Norway: 1st Half O/U 0.5 Jun 17 $300 $0 +0%
Iraq vs. Norway: 1st Half O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $300 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Panasa vs. Requena: Set 2 Games O/U 10.5 BUY Under 100¢ $50 22m
Games Total: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 100¢ $50 25m
Stosovic vs. Argyrokastriti: Set 1 Games O/U 9.5 BUY Under 100¢ $114 33m
Masiianskaia vs. Lee: Set 1 Games O/U 10.5 BUY Under 100¢ $170 33m
Breen vs. Virc: Set 1 Games O/U 10.5 BUY Under 100¢ $170 41m
Breen vs. Virc: Set 1 Games O/U 9.5 BUY Under 100¢ $134 41m
Breen vs. Virc: Set 1 Games O/U 8.5 BUY Under 100¢ $114 41m
Dota 2: Vici Gaming vs Cloud Rising (BO3) - The International China Cl BUY Vici Gaming 100¢ $294 42m
Dota 2: Vici Gaming vs Cloud Rising (BO3) - The International China Cl BUY Vici Gaming 100¢ $6 42m
Panasa vs. Requena: Set 1 Games O/U 8.5 BUY Under 100¢ $114 45m
Panasa vs. Requena: Set 1 Games O/U 9.5 BUY Under 100¢ $114 45m
Dota 2: Team Refuser vs Game Master - Game 2 Winner BUY Team Refuser 100¢ $278 50m
Stusek vs. Kaegi: Set 1 Games O/U 10.5 BUY Under 100¢ $156 56m
ITF Sapporo: Tori Kinard vs Yuzuha Negishi BUY Yuzuha Negishi 100¢ $6 1h
ITF Sapporo: Tori Kinard vs Yuzuha Negishi BUY Yuzuha Negishi 100¢ $17 1h
Stusek vs. Kaegi: Set 1 Games O/U 9.5 BUY Under 100¢ $50 1h
Dota 2: Team Refuser vs Game Master - Game 2 Winner BUY Team Refuser 100¢ $22 1h
Dota 2: InterActive Philippines vs Ivory - Game 1 Winner BUY Ivory 100¢ $246 2h
Dota 2: InterActive Philippines vs Ivory - Game 1 Winner BUY Ivory 100¢ $53 2h
LoL: KT Rolster Challengers vs Dplus KIA Challengers - Game 1 Winner BUY Dplus KIA Challengers 100¢ $300 2h
ITF Zhengzhou: Zongyu Li vs Hanna Chang BUY Hanna Chang 100¢ $74 2h
Qiu Yu Ye vs. Le Yi Liu: Total Sets O/U 2.5 BUY Under 2.5 100¢ $50 3h
ITF Taipei: Nao Nishino vs Kristiana Sidorova BUY Kristiana Sidorova 100¢ $50 3h
Austria vs. Jordan: 1st Half O/U 0.5 BUY Over 100¢ $212 3h
Austria vs. Jordan: 1st Half O/U 0.5 BUY Over 100¢ $2 3h
Kim vs. Bouzige: Match O/U 21.5 BUY Over 100¢ $5 3h
Austria vs. Jordan: 1st Half O/U 0.5 BUY Over 100¢ $86 3h
Austria vs. Jordan: Austria 1st Half O/U 0.5 BUY Over 100¢ $159 3h
Austria leading at halftime? BUY Yes 100¢ $300 3h
Austria vs. Jordan: 1st Half O/U 4.5 Total Corners BUY Under 100¢ $29 4h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $2,026.40 · official $2,026.40 (match) · 3500 history records