Wallet analysis

2026-06-24T21:56:42+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
0D 0x0df8…333e crypto 295 markets active 2h ago coverage 676d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL +$1,272 (+33%) realized +$1,054 · open +$218
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -14% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -22% what you keep after slip
Net edge-22%after slip
Net WR17%break-even
Win rate18%51W / 239L
Drawdown41%max
Avg bet$13per market
Trades / day0.9pace
Kalshi-fit92%portable
Net worth$563now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days$0
14 days$0
30 days−$1
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 51% +$709
other 41% +$553
politics 4% −$51
world 4% $0
finance 1% −$44
economics 0% −$5
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +17%
net ROI/market (all)-22.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d no closed markets
≤30d 1 -100.0% -100.0% 0% 0% -100.0%
≤90d 86 -31.5% -38.1% 34% 33% -29.6%
all 290 -13.8% -22.0% 18% 17% +9.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.9 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -22.0% 17% +9.1%
10% -29.5% 16% -1.3%
15% -36.3% 15% -10.8%
20% -42.6% 14% -19.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 17% · top 2 34% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -22% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
4% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -14% · $-wt +28% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -9% → late -18% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.9 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$63 vs −$9 · ×6.65 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.42 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

676d coverage
Net worth$563
Realized+$1,054
Unrealized+$218
Win rate (resolved)18%
Wins / losses51 / 239
Open positions5
Markets (closed)290 / 295
History coverage676d
Avg bet$13
Trades / day0.9
Drawdown41%
Kalshi-fit92%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 5 History 290 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Gold (GC) settle at $3,800-$4,200 in June? Yes 10¢ 74¢ $53 $374 +$321 (+610%)
Will Gold (GC) settle at <$3,800 in June? Yes 5¢ 9¢ $60 $112 +$52 (+87%)
Will Gold (GC) settle at $4,200-$4,600 in June? Yes 10¢ 14¢ $51 $71 +$20 (+39%)
Will Gold (GC) settle at $4,600-$5,000 in June? Yes 13¢ 1¢ $119 $5 −$114 (-96%)
Will Gold (GC) settle at $5,000-$5,400 in June? Yes 14¢ 0¢ $63 $2 −$61 (-98%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 210 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 8:20AM-8:25AM ET Jun 07 $1 −$1 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 24, 6:00AM-6:05AM ET May 24 $1 −$1 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 24, 3:10AM-3:15AM ET May 24 $1 −$1 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 24, 2:45AM-2:50AM ET May 24 $1 −$1 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 24, 2:40AM-2:45AM ET May 24 $2 −$2 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 18, 8:15AM-8:20AM ET May 18 $1 +$2 +181%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 18, 6:40AM-6:45AM ET May 18 $1 +$2 +181%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 17, 2:00PM-2:05PM ET May 17 $1 −$1 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 14, 4:00PM-4:05PM ET May 14 $1 −$1 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 14, 7:00AM-7:05AM ET May 14 $1 +$3 +280%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 11, 2:00PM-2:05PM ET May 11 $2 −$2 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 9, 8:35AM-8:40AM ET May 09 $1 −$1 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 9, 7:50AM-7:55AM ET May 09 $1 −$1 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 9, 7:35AM-7:40AM ET May 09 $7 +$3 +38%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 9, 7:10AM-7:15AM ET May 09 $1 −$1 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 9, 6:30AM-6:35AM ET May 09 $1 −$1 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 9, 6:10AM-6:15AM ET May 09 $1 −$1 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 9, 5:50AM-5:55AM ET May 09 $0 $0 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 9, 5:35AM-5:40AM ET May 09 $2 +$1 +61%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 9, 5:30AM-5:35AM ET May 09 $1 +$3 +279%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 9, 5:20AM-5:25AM ET May 09 $3 −$3 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 8, 4:30PM-4:35PM ET May 08 $2 +$1 +36%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 8, 4:25PM-4:30PM ET May 08 $2 −$2 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 8, 4:20PM-4:25PM ET May 08 $1 −$1 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 8, 4:15PM-4:20PM ET May 08 $2 −$2 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 8, 4:10PM-4:15PM ET May 08 $1 −$1 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 8, 4:05PM-4:10PM ET May 08 $1 −$1 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 8, 2:30PM-2:35PM ET May 08 $1 −$1 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 8, 2:10PM-2:15PM ET May 08 $1 −$1 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 8, 2:05PM-2:10PM ET May 08 $2 −$2 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 8, 2:00PM-2:05PM ET May 08 $1 −$1 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 8, 1:55PM-2:00PM ET May 08 $1 −$1 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 8, 12:25PM-12:30PM ET May 08 $1 −$1 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 8, 12:20PM-12:25PM ET May 08 $2 +$2 +78%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 8, 12:15PM-12:20PM ET May 08 $1 +$1 +112%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 8, 11:45AM-11:50AM ET May 08 $1 −$1 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 8, 11:35AM-11:40AM ET May 08 $2 +$4 +211%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 8, 11:30AM-11:35AM ET May 08 $2 −$2 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 8, 10:50AM-10:55AM ET May 08 $4 +$2 +51%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 8, 10:40AM-10:45AM ET May 08 $2 −$2 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 4, 12:10PM-12:15PM ET May 04 $5 +$3 +67%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 4, 12:05PM-12:10PM ET May 04 $10 +$2 +16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 4, 12:00PM-12:05PM ET May 04 $5 −$5 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 4, 11:55AM-12:00PM ET May 04 $6 −$6 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 4, 11:50AM-11:55AM ET May 04 $5 −$3 -62%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 4, 11:40AM-11:45AM ET May 04 $1 −$1 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 3, 8:20AM-8:25AM ET May 03 $1 −$1 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 3, 8:10AM-8:15AM ET May 03 $5 −$5 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 3, 8:00AM-8:05AM ET May 03 $4 −$4 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 3, 7:45AM-7:50AM ET May 03 $2 +$1 +66%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Gold (GC) settle at $3,800-$4,200 in June? SELL Yes 71¢ $63 1h
Will Gold (GC) settle at <$3,800 in June? BUY Yes 2¢ $10 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 8:20AM-8:25AM ET BUY Up 1¢ $1 17d
Will Gold (GC) settle at <$3,800 in June? BUY Yes 2¢ $3 31d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 24, 6:00AM-6:05AM ET BUY Up 22¢ $1 31d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 24, 3:10AM-3:15AM ET BUY Up 12¢ $1 31d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 24, 2:45AM-2:50AM ET BUY Down 4¢ $1 31d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 24, 2:40AM-2:45AM ET BUY Down 12¢ $1 31d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 24, 2:40AM-2:45AM ET BUY Down 26¢ $1 31d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 18, 8:15AM-8:20AM ET BUY Up 34¢ $1 37d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 18, 6:40AM-6:45AM ET BUY Down 34¢ $1 37d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 17, 2:00PM-2:05PM ET BUY Down 9¢ $1 38d
Will Gold (GC) settle at <$3,800 in June? BUY Yes 2¢ $1 40d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 14, 4:00PM-4:05PM ET BUY Down 10¢ $1 41d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 14, 7:00AM-7:05AM ET SELL Down 38¢ $4 41d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 14, 7:00AM-7:05AM ET BUY Down 9¢ $1 41d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 11, 2:00PM-2:05PM ET BUY Down 40¢ $2 44d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 9, 8:35AM-8:40AM ET BUY Up 31¢ $1 46d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 9, 7:50AM-7:55AM ET BUY Down 28¢ $1 46d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 9, 7:35AM-7:40AM ET SELL Up 38¢ $10 46d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 9, 7:35AM-7:40AM ET BUY Up 21¢ $2 46d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 9, 7:35AM-7:40AM ET BUY Up 27¢ $5 46d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 9, 7:10AM-7:15AM ET BUY Down 2¢ $1 46d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 9, 6:30AM-6:35AM ET BUY Down 6¢ $1 46d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 9, 6:10AM-6:15AM ET BUY Down 24¢ $1 46d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 9, 5:50AM-5:55AM ET BUY Down 5¢ $0 46d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 9, 5:35AM-5:40AM ET SELL Down 30¢ $3 46d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 9, 5:35AM-5:40AM ET BUY Down 11¢ $1 46d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 9, 5:35AM-5:40AM ET BUY Down 36¢ $1 46d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 9, 5:30AM-5:35AM ET SELL Down 46¢ $4 46d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $563.13 · official $567.36 (match) · 663 history records