Wallet analysis

2026-06-24T09:15:45+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
0D 0x0df7…d204 other 69 markets active 1h ago coverage 114d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$1,227 (+36%) realized +$1,238 · open −$11
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +4% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -6% what you keep after slip
Net edge-6%after slip
Net WR30%break-even
Win rate32%19W / 41L
Drawdown26%max
Avg bet$49per market
Trades / day0.9pace
Fees−$28est.
Kalshi-fit30%portable
Net worth$442now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$912
7 days+$871
14 days+$764
30 days+$1,008
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 49% +$232
sports 49% +$1,023
world 2% −$61
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +30%
net ROI/market (all)-5.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 39 +6.3% -3.8% 31% 28% +26.4%
≤30d 55 +0.3% -9.3% 31% 29% +25.4%
≤90d 58 +4.8% -5.2% 33% 31% +29.7%
all 60 +4.3% -5.6% 32% 30% +27.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.9 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -5.6% 30% +27.9%
10% -14.7% 30% +15.6%
15% -22.9% 27% +4.4%
20% -30.5% 23% -5.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 25% · top 2 38% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +43% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
5% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +4% · $-wt +41% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -24% → late +33% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$101 vs −$17 · ×5.81 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×2.69 per $1 lost it wins $2.69
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

114d coverage
Net worth$442
Realized+$1,238
Unrealized−$11
Win rate (resolved)32%
Wins / losses19 / 41
Est. fees paid−$28
Open positions7
Markets (closed)60 / 69
History coverage114d
Avg bet$49
Trades / day0.9
Drawdown26%
Kalshi-fit30%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 7 History 60 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Canada win on 2026-06-24? Yes 29¢ 28¢ $200 $196 −$4 (-2%)
Switzerland vs. Canada: O/U 2.5 Over 46¢ 46¢ $157 $155 −$2 (-1%)
Exact Score: Switzerland 1 - 2 Canada? Yes 8¢ 8¢ $30 $28 −$2 (-6%)
Exact Score: Switzerland 0 - 1 Canada? Yes 9¢ 8¢ $20 $19 −$1 (-6%)
Exact Score: Switzerland 0 - 2 Canada? Yes 5¢ 4¢ $20 $18 −$2 (-10%)
Exact Score: Switzerland 1 - 3 Canada? Yes 2¢ 2¢ $13 $13 −$0 (-2%)
Exact Score: Switzerland 2 - 3 Canada? Yes 2¢ 2¢ $13 $13 −$0 (-2%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 32 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-23? Jun 24 $260 +$141 +54%
Colombia vs. DR Congo: O/U 2.5 Jun 24 $51 −$3 -6%
Exact Score: Colombia 1 - 1 DR Congo? Jun 24 $41 −$40 -97%
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-23? Jun 24 $557 +$253 +46%
Exact Score: Panama 1 - 1 Croatia? Jun 23 $11 −$11 -97%
Exact Score: Panama 2 - 1 Croatia? Jun 23 $10 $0 +2%
England vs. Ghana: O/U 3.5 Jun 23 $71 +$48 +67%
Spread: England (-2.5) Jun 23 $101 +$60 +59%
Exact Score: Panama 1 - 2 Croatia? Jun 23 $10 −$10 -97%
Panama vs. Croatia: O/U 2.5 Jun 23 $159 −$157 -99%
Exact Score: Panama 1 - 3 Croatia? Jun 23 $10 −$10 -97%
Exact Score: Panama 2 - 3 Croatia? Jun 23 $10 −$10 -97%
Panama vs. Croatia: O/U 3.5 Jun 23 $51 −$50 -98%
Exact Score: England 2 - 1 Ghana? Jun 23 $10 −$10 -97%
Exact Score: England 2 - 0 Ghana? Jun 23 $10 −$10 -98%
Exact Score: England 1 - 1 Ghana? Jun 23 $10 −$10 -97%
England vs. Ghana: Both Teams to Score Jun 23 $51 −$50 -98%
Portugal vs. Uzbekistan: O/U 3.5 Jun 23 $356 +$477 +134%
Exact Score: Portugal 2 - 2 Uzbekistan? Jun 23 $4 −$4 -97%
Exact Score: Jordan 1 - 2 Algeria? Jun 23 $10 +$81 +786%
Jordan vs. Algeria: O/U 2.5 Jun 23 $134 +$135 +101%
Exact Score: Jordan 1 - 3 Algeria? Jun 23 $10 −$10 -97%
Norway vs. Senegal: O/U 2.5 Jun 23 $78 +$76 +97%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? Jun 22 $53 +$25 +48%
Exact Score: Argentina 3 - 3 Austria? Jun 22 $3 −$3 -97%
Exact Score: Norway 3 - 3 Senegal? Jun 22 $5 −$5 -97%
Exact Score: New Zealand 2 - 3 Egypt? Jun 22 $4 −$4 -100%
Exact Score: New Zealand 1 - 3 Egypt? Jun 22 $4 +$57 +1396%
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-21? Jun 22 $26 −$26 -100%
Exact Score: Spain 3 - 3 Saudi Arabia? Jun 21 $5 −$5 -97%
Exact Score: Scotland 2 - 2 Morocco? Jun 19 $15 −$15 -97%
Exact Score: Scotland 1 - 1 Morocco? Jun 19 $15 −$15 -98%
Exact Score: Scotland 0 - 0 Morocco? Jun 19 $10 −$10 -97%
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? Jun 19 $19 +$12 +62%
Exact Score: United States 2 - 1 Australia? Jun 19 $5 −$5 -97%
Exact Score: Canada 1 - 2 Qatar? Jun 18 $5 −$5 -97%
Exact Score: Canada 1 - 1 Qatar? Jun 18 $5 −$5 -97%
Exact Score: Canada 0 - 1 Qatar? Jun 18 $5 −$5 -97%
Exact Score: Czechia 2 - 0 South Africa? Jun 18 $7 −$6 -97%
Exact Score: Ghana 3 - 3 Panama? Jun 17 $10 −$10 -97%
Exact Score: England 3 - 3 Croatia? Jun 17 $18 −$17 -97%
Exact Score: Portugal 3 - 2 DR Congo? Jun 17 $21 −$20 -97%
Exact Score: Portugal 3 - 3 DR Congo? Jun 17 $8 −$8 -97%
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 1.5 Jun 17 $48 +$15 +30%
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 1.5 Jun 17 $36 +$12 +34%
Exact Score: Argentina 1 - 0 Algeria? Jun 16 $5 −$1 -11%
Exact Score: Iraq 1 - 1 Norway? Jun 16 $5 −$5 -97%
Exact Score: France 3 - 0 Senegal? Jun 16 $5 −$5 -100%
Exact Score: France 2 - 0 Senegal? Jun 16 $20 −$20 -99%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 4.5 Jun 15 $30 −$29 -98%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Canada win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 29¢ $204 1h
Exact Score: Switzerland 2 - 3 Canada? BUY Yes 2¢ $13 1h
Exact Score: Switzerland 1 - 3 Canada? BUY Yes 2¢ $13 1h
Exact Score: Switzerland 1 - 2 Canada? BUY Yes 8¢ $31 1h
Exact Score: Switzerland 0 - 2 Canada? BUY Yes 5¢ $21 1h
Exact Score: Switzerland 0 - 1 Canada? BUY Yes 9¢ $21 1h
Switzerland vs. Canada: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 46¢ $160 1h
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-23? SELL Yes 100¢ $401 5h
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-23? BUY Yes 64¢ $48 7h
Colombia vs. DR Congo: O/U 2.5 SELL Under 55¢ $48 7h
Exact Score: Colombia 1 - 1 DR Congo? BUY Yes 12¢ $41 8h
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-23? BUY Yes 64¢ $212 8h
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-23? SELL Yes 100¢ $810 8h
Exact Score: Panama 1 - 1 Croatia? BUY Yes 11¢ $11 10h
Exact Score: Panama 2 - 1 Croatia? SELL Yes 4¢ $11 10h
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-23? BUY Yes 68¢ $557 11h
England vs. Ghana: O/U 3.5 SELL Under 100¢ $119 11h
Spread: England (-2.5) SELL Ghana 100¢ $161 11h
Exact Score: Panama 1 - 2 Croatia? BUY Yes 11¢ $10 11h
Exact Score: Panama 2 - 1 Croatia? BUY Yes 3¢ $10 11h
Panama vs. Croatia: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 57¢ $159 11h
Colombia vs. DR Congo: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 57¢ $51 13h
Exact Score: Panama 1 - 3 Croatia? BUY Yes 8¢ $10 13h
Exact Score: Panama 2 - 3 Croatia? BUY Yes 3¢ $10 13h
Panama vs. Croatia: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 35¢ $51 13h
Exact Score: England 2 - 1 Ghana? BUY Yes 9¢ $10 13h
Exact Score: England 2 - 0 Ghana? BUY Yes 15¢ $10 13h
Exact Score: England 1 - 1 Ghana? BUY Yes 6¢ $10 13h
England vs. Ghana: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 41¢ $51 14h
England vs. Ghana: O/U 3.5 BUY Under 59¢ $71 14h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $441.82 · official $441.89 (match) · 109 history records