Wallet analysis

2026-06-28T09:46:47+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
0D 0x0df5…3a02 crypto 54 markets active 2h ago coverage 501d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL +$1 (+0%) realized +$1 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -9% what you keep after slip
Net edge-9%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate81%43W / 10L
Drawdown13%max
Avg bet$17per market
Trades / day0.1pace
Kalshi-fit87%portable
Net worth$39now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days$0
14 days$0
30 days+$0
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 57% +$1
other 19% $0
sports 8% $0
tech 7% $0
politics 7% $0
economics 2% $0
world 1% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-9.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d no closed markets
≤30d 2 +0.1% -9.4% 100% 0% -9.4%
≤90d 7 +0.2% -9.3% 100% 0% -9.3%
all 53 +0.2% -9.3% 81% 0% -9.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.1 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.3% 0% -9.4%
10% -18.0% 0% -18.1%
15% -25.9% 0% -26.0%
20% -33.2% 0% -33.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 11% · top 2 21% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% too few recent
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +0% · $-wt +0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +0% → late +0% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$0 · ×1.17 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×5.04 per $1 lost it wins $5.04
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

501d coverage
Net worth$39
Realized+$1
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)81%
Wins / losses43 / 10
Open positions1
Markets (closed)53 / 54
History coverage501d
Avg bet$17
Trades / day0.1
Drawdown13%
Kalshi-fit87%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 53 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Bitcoin reach $80,000 in June? No 100¢ 100¢ $39 $39 −$0 (-0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Bitcoin dip to $50,000 in May? Jun 03 $7 $0 +0%
Will Solana dip to $60 in May? Jun 03 $38 $0 +0%
Will Dogecoin reach $0.15 in April? May 04 $18 $0 +1%
Will Solana dip to $50 in April? May 04 $25 $0 +0%
Will Ethereum dip to $1,000 in March? Apr 02 $2 $0 +0%
Will XRP reach $2.40 in March? Apr 02 $8 $0 +0%
Will Solana dip to $40 in March? Apr 02 $40 $0 +0%
Will Dogecoin reach $0.15 in February? Mar 03 $9 $0 +0%
Will BNB reach $1,200 in February? Mar 03 $31 $0 +0%
Will Hyperliquid hit $46 in January? Feb 02 $12 $0 +0%
Will Ethereum reach $6,000 in January? Feb 02 $36 $0 +0%
Will Ethereum reach $4,400 in December? Jan 02 $3 $0 +0%
Will XRP reach $4.00 before 2026? Jan 02 $15 $0 +0%
Will Ethereum hit $17,000 by December 31? Jan 02 $27 $0 +0%
Will Ethereum reach $5,000 in November? Dec 02 $22 $0 +0%
Ethereum all time high by October 31? Nov 04 $11 $0 +0%
Will xAI have the best AI model on October 31? Nov 04 $28 $0 +0%
Will Solana reach $300 in September? Oct 03 $14 $0 +0%
Will XRP reach $4.50 in September? Oct 03 $25 $0 +0%
Will xAI have the top AI model on August 31? Sep 02 $3 $0 +0%
Will Solana dip to $145 in August? Sep 02 $10 $0 +0%
Will Ethereum reach $6200 in August? Sep 02 $32 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin reach $150K in July? Aug 04 $5 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin reach $140K in July? Aug 04 $8 $0 +0%
Will Ethereum dip to $2200 in July? Aug 04 $31 $0 +0%
Will XRP dip to $1.4 in June? Jul 04 $11 $0 +1%
Will Ethereum reach $3000 in June? Jul 04 $15 $0 +1%
Will Bitcoin dip to $80k in May? Jun 24 $3 $0 +0%
Will Solana dip to $110 in May? Jun 24 $8 $0 +0%
Will Hyperliquid dip to $20 before June? Jun 24 $11 $0 +0%
Israel x Hamas ceasefire before May? May 02 $5 $0 +1%
Will TikTok be banned again before May? May 02 $6 $0 +0%
Ethereum all time high in April? May 02 $6 $0 +0%
Bitcoin all time high in April? May 02 $7 $0 +1%
TikTok sale announced before May? May 02 $9 $0 +1%
Will Ethereum dip to $1200 in April? May 02 $10 $0 +0%
Will UCR hold the most seats in the Chamber of Deputies following the Apr 18 $15 $0 -0%
Will Jaxson Dart be the first pick of the 2025 NFL Draft? Apr 18 $18 $0 -0%
Will Yuki Tsunoda be the 2025 Drivers Champion? Apr 18 $21 $0 -0%
Will SOCDEM win the most seats in the next Czech parliamentary electio Apr 14 $16 $0 -0%
Will the Miami Marlins win the 2025 National League Championship? Apr 13 $20 $0 -0%
Will any other candidate win the Romanian presidential election? Apr 12 $35 $0 -0%
Solana all time high by March 31? Apr 02 $7 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin reach $120,000 by March 31? Apr 02 $8 $0 +0%
Will XRP dip to $1.70 in March? Apr 02 $8 $0 +2%
Will Solana hit $190 in March? Apr 02 $9 $0 +0%
Will Oregon win the 2025 NCAA Tournament? Mar 22 $58 $0 -0%
Will Kelvin Banks Jr. be the first pick of the 2025 NFL Draft? Mar 15 $54 $0 -0%
Fed increases interest rates by 25+ bps after May 2025 meeting? Mar 13 $18 $0 -0%
Will DeepSeek have the top AI model on February 28? Mar 03 $10 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Bitcoin reach $80,000 in June? BUY No 100¢ $39 1h
Will Bitcoin dip to $50,000 in May? BUY No 100¢ $7 30d
Will Solana dip to $60 in May? BUY No 100¢ $38 31d
Will Dogecoin reach $0.15 in April? BUY No 99¢ $18 61d
Will Solana dip to $50 in April? BUY No 100¢ $25 62d
Will Ethereum dip to $1,000 in March? BUY No 100¢ $2 91d
Will XRP reach $2.40 in March? BUY No 100¢ $8 91d
Will Solana dip to $40 in March? BUY No 100¢ $40 93d
Will Dogecoin reach $0.15 in February? BUY No 100¢ $9 121d
Will BNB reach $1,200 in February? BUY No 100¢ $31 122d
Will Hyperliquid hit $46 in January? BUY No 100¢ $2 149d
Will Hyperliquid hit $46 in January? BUY No 100¢ $10 149d
Will Ethereum reach $6,000 in January? BUY No 100¢ $36 151d
Will Ethereum reach $4,400 in December? BUY No 100¢ $3 182d
Will XRP reach $4.00 before 2026? BUY No 100¢ $15 182d
Will Ethereum hit $17,000 by December 31? BUY No 100¢ $27 183d
Will Ethereum reach $5,000 in November? BUY No 100¢ $22 212d
Ethereum all time high by October 31? BUY No 100¢ $11 241d
Will xAI have the best AI model on October 31? BUY No 100¢ $28 242d
Will Solana reach $300 in September? BUY No 100¢ $14 274d
Will XRP reach $4.50 in September? BUY No 100¢ $25 274d
Will xAI have the top AI model on August 31? BUY No 100¢ $3 301d
Will Solana dip to $145 in August? BUY No 100¢ $10 303d
Will Ethereum reach $6200 in August? BUY No 100¢ $32 303d
Will Bitcoin reach $150K in July? BUY No 100¢ $5 332d
Will Bitcoin reach $140K in July? BUY No 100¢ $8 333d
Will Ethereum dip to $2200 in July? BUY No 100¢ $31 334d
Will XRP dip to $1.4 in June? BUY No 99¢ $11 365d
Will Ethereum reach $3000 in June? BUY No 99¢ $15 366d
Will Bitcoin dip to $80k in May? BUY No 100¢ $3 394d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $39.16 · official $39.16 (match) · 114 history records