Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T02:17:52+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1.0
score
0D 0x0df3…73fb crypto 190 markets active 0h ago coverage 29d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL +$459 (+15%) realized +$459 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -2% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -19% what you keep after slip
Net edge-19%after slip
Net WR52%break-even
Win rate52%99W / 91L
Drawdown31%max
Avg bet$16per market
Trades / day8.5pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$60
7 days+$381
14 days+$392
30 days+$394
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% +$394
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +52%
net ROI/market (all)-11.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 53 +2.7% -7.1% 57% 57% +7.4%
≤30d 190 -2.5% -11.8% 52% 52% +2.0%
≤90d 190 -2.5% -11.8% 52% 52% +2.0%
all 190 -2.5% -11.8% 52% 52% +2.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover8.5 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -11.8% 52% +2.0%
10% -20.3% 49% -7.8%
15% -28.0% 37% -16.7%
20% -35.0% 27% -24.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 7% · top 2 13% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +13% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
1% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -3% · $-wt +13% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -3% → late -2% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$13 vs −$9 · ×1.34 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×1.46 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

29d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$459
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)52%
Wins / losses99 / 91
Open positions0
Markets (closed)190 / 190
History coverage29d
Avg bet$16
Trades / day8.5
Drawdown31%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 190 Trades
no open positions (34 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 10:00PM-10:15PM ET Jun 18 $46 −$18 -39%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 9:30PM-9:45PM ET Jun 18 $68 +$35 +52%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 9:15PM-9:30PM ET Jun 18 $12 −$11 -93%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 9:00PM-9:15PM ET Jun 18 $69 +$34 +50%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 8PM ET Jun 18 $13 +$13 +97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 7:00PM-7:15PM ET Jun 17 $53 −$38 -72%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 6:45PM-7:00PM ET Jun 17 $37 +$9 +24%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 6:15PM-6:30PM ET Jun 17 $54 +$50 +93%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 6:00PM-6:15PM ET Jun 17 $15 −$5 -33%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 5:15PM-5:30PM ET Jun 17 $61 −$58 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 1:45PM-2:00PM ET Jun 17 $44 +$61 +140%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 1:30PM-1:45PM ET Jun 17 $45 −$43 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 1:00PM-1:15PM ET Jun 17 $54 −$52 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:45PM-1:00PM ET Jun 17 $51 −$46 -90%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:15PM-12:30PM ET Jun 17 $73 +$30 +42%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:00PM-12:15PM ET Jun 17 $72 +$31 +44%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 10:00AM-10:15AM ET Jun 17 $67 −$5 -7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 8AM ET Jun 17 $15 −$15 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11PM ET Jun 17 $21 +$5 +23%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:30PM-11:45PM ET Jun 17 $25 +$8 +31%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:00PM-8:15PM ET Jun 17 $2 −$2 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:15PM-3:30PM ET Jun 16 $32 −$12 -39%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:30AM-4:45AM ET Jun 16 $8 +$3 +38%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:00AM-3:15AM ET Jun 16 $29 −$25 -86%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:30AM-2:45AM ET Jun 16 $47 +$58 +124%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:30AM-1:45AM ET Jun 16 $53 +$51 +97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8PM ET Jun 16 $17 +$8 +48%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7PM ET Jun 15 $11 −$11 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5PM ET Jun 15 $20 +$6 +31%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:30AM-9:45AM ET Jun 15 $5 −$5 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:00AM-9:15AM ET Jun 15 $23 +$17 +73%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:15AM-8:30AM ET Jun 15 $8 −$8 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3AM ET Jun 15 $22 +$4 +19%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:30AM-3:45AM ET Jun 15 $13 −$12 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:15AM-1:30AM ET Jun 15 $69 +$34 +50%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10PM ET Jun 15 $17 +$8 +48%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9PM ET Jun 15 $20 +$6 +29%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:45PM-6:00PM ET Jun 14 $49 +$55 +113%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:00PM-4:15PM ET Jun 14 $50 +$44 +87%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4AM ET Jun 14 $19 +$7 +38%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:00AM-4:15AM ET Jun 14 $85 +$17 +20%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 9:15PM-9:30PM ET Jun 14 $49 +$56 +114%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 2:45PM-3:00PM ET Jun 13 $43 −$41 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 9:15AM-9:30AM ET Jun 13 $64 +$40 +62%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 9AM ET Jun 13 $5 −$5 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 7:15AM-7:30AM ET Jun 13 $72 +$31 +44%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 6:15AM-6:30AM ET Jun 13 $41 −$20 -50%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 2:15AM-2:30AM ET Jun 13 $52 −$7 -13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 10:45PM-11:00PM ET Jun 13 $38 +$68 +181%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 10PM ET Jun 13 $2 −$2 -95%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 10:00PM-10:15PM ET SELL Up 35¢ $28 3m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 10:00PM-10:15PM ET BUY Up 54¢ $46 17m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 9:30PM-9:45PM ET BUY Down 64¢ $68 40m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 9:15PM-9:30PM ET SELL Up 3¢ $1 49m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 9:15PM-9:30PM ET BUY Up 38¢ $12 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 9:00PM-9:15PM ET BUY Up 65¢ $69 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 8PM ET BUY Down 49¢ $13 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 7:00PM-7:15PM ET SELL Up 15¢ $15 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 7:00PM-7:15PM ET BUY Up 49¢ $53 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 6:45PM-7:00PM ET BUY Up 80¢ $37 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 6:15PM-6:30PM ET BUY Up 50¢ $54 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 6:00PM-6:15PM ET SELL Up 10¢ $10 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 6:00PM-6:15PM ET BUY Up 13¢ $15 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 5:15PM-5:30PM ET SELL Up 4¢ $1 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 5:15PM-5:30PM ET SELL Up 3¢ $2 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 5:15PM-5:30PM ET SELL Up 3¢ $0 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 5:15PM-5:30PM ET BUY Up 57¢ $61 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 1:45PM-2:00PM ET BUY Up 40¢ $44 8h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 1:30PM-1:45PM ET BUY Up 41¢ $45 8h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 1:00PM-1:15PM ET BUY Up 50¢ $54 9h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:45PM-1:00PM ET SELL Up 5¢ $5 9h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:45PM-1:00PM ET BUY Up 47¢ $51 9h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:15PM-12:30PM ET BUY Up 69¢ $73 9h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:00PM-12:15PM ET BUY Up 68¢ $72 10h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 10:00AM-10:15AM ET SELL Down 60¢ $62 12h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 10:00AM-10:15AM ET BUY Down 61¢ $67 12h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 8AM ET BUY Down 60¢ $15 13h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:30PM-11:45PM ET BUY Up 75¢ $25 22h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11PM ET BUY Down 80¢ $21 23h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:00PM-8:15PM ET BUY Down 33¢ $2 26h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 355 history records