Wallet analysis

2026-06-29T17:31:09+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
0D 0x0df0…1376 sports 44 markets active 0h ago coverage 1d
RISKYcopy with care sports specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ bot/MM pace (172 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ only 1d of captured history — unreliable✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$168 (-16%) realized −$28 · open −$139
Gross ROI / mkt -31% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -47% what you keep after slip
Net edge-47%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate0%0W / 7L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$24per market
Trades / day172.0pace
Fees−$15est.
Kalshi-fit89%portable
Net worth$801now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 1d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 84% −$143
other 11% −$5
world 5% −$19
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-37.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 7 -30.7% -37.3% 0% 0% -36.0%
≤30d 7 -30.7% -37.3% 0% 0% -36.0%
≤90d 7 -30.7% -37.3% 0% 0% -36.0%
all 7 -30.7% -37.3% 0% 0% -36.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover172.0 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -37.3% 0% -36.0%
10% ← realistic here -43.3% 0% -42.2%
15% -48.8% 0% -47.7%
20% -53.8% 0% -52.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top —% · top 2 —% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -29% too few recent
Fragile wins
—% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -31% · $-wt -29% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
3.5 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
— vs −$4 no data
Profit factor
×0.0 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

1d coverage
Net worth$801
Realized−$28
Unrealized−$139
Win rate (resolved)0%
Wins / losses0 / 7
Est. fees paid−$15
Open positions37
Markets (closed)7 / 44
History coverage1d
Avg bet$24
Trades / day172.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit89%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 37 History 7 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Brazil vs. Japan: O/U 2.5 Over 44¢ 48¢ $75 $82 +$7 (+9%)
Wimbledon WTA: Mimi Xu vs Daria Kasatkina Mimi Xu 19¢ $15 $32 +$17 (+116%)
Brazil vs. Japan: O/U 1.5 Over 66¢ 76¢ $25 $29 +$4 (+16%)
Wimbledon WTA: Leylah Fernandez vs Janice Tjen Janice Tjen 74¢ 100¢ $20 $27 +$7 (+34%)
Germany vs. Paraguay: O/U 2.5 Over 57¢ 56¢ $25 $25 −$0 (-1%)
England vs. DR Congo: O/U 2.5 Under 51¢ 50¢ $25 $25 −$0 (-1%)
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Norway: O/U 2.5 Over 50¢ 50¢ $25 $25 −$0 (-1%)
Will Mexico vs. Ecuador end in a draw? Yes 34¢ 34¢ $25 $25 −$0 (-1%)
Will Portugal vs. Croatia end in a draw? Yes 28¢ 28¢ $25 $25 −$0 (-2%)
Will England win on 2026-07-01? No 24¢ 24¢ $25 $24 −$1 (-2%)
Will Germany vs. Paraguay end in a draw? Yes 19¢ 18¢ $25 $24 −$1 (-3%)
Will Brazil vs. Japan end in a draw? No 73¢ 69¢ $25 $24 −$1 (-4%)
Wimbledon WTA: Solana Sierra vs Anna Bondar Anna Bondar 40¢ 44¢ $20 $22 +$2 (+11%)
Brazil vs. Japan: O/U 3.5 Over 22¢ 24¢ $20 $22 +$2 (+9%)
Will Japan win on 2026-06-29? Yes 21¢ 44¢ $10 $21 +$11 (+112%)
Wimbledon ATP: Arthur Rinderknech vs Oliver Tarvet Arthur Rinderknech 71¢ 100¢ $15 $21 +$6 (+41%)
Wimbledon ATP: Alejandro Davidovich Fokina vs Juan Manuel Cerundolo Alejandro Davidovich Fokina 92¢ 95¢ $20 $21 +$1 (+3%)
Wimbledon ATP: Jesper de Jong vs Rinky Hijikata Jesper de Jong 27¢ 28¢ $20 $20 +$0 (+2%)
Spread: Japan (-1.5) Brazil 94¢ 88¢ $20 $19 −$1 (-5%)
Brazil vs. Japan: O/U 4.5 Over 11¢ $22 $18 −$4 (-18%)
Brazil vs. Japan: Team to Advance Brazil 72¢ 50¢ $25 $17 −$8 (-32%)
Wimbledon ATP: Jan-Lennard Struff vs Sebastian Baez Jan-Lennard Struff 32¢ 100¢ $5 $16 +$11 (+212%)
Wimbledon WTA: Dayana Yastremska vs Aoi Ito Dayana Yastremska 87¢ 84¢ $15 $14 −$1 (-4%)
Wimbledon WTA: Magdalena Frech vs Anna Kalinskaya Magdalena Frech 32¢ 28¢ $15 $13 −$2 (-11%)
Wimbledon WTA: Katerina Siniakova vs Qinwen Zheng Qinwen Zheng 49¢ 41¢ $15 $13 −$2 (-16%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 1 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Brazil leading at halftime? Jun 29 $10 −$1 -10%
Wimbledon ATP: Marin Cilic vs Daniil Medvedev Jun 29 $5 −$5 -96%
Brazil to score first vs. Japan? Jun 29 $10 −$1 -8%
Japan leading at halftime? Jun 29 $10 −$1 -12%
Japan to score first vs. Brazil? Jun 29 $10 −$1 -8%
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by July 10, 2026? Jun 29 $25 −$11 -42%
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by July 3, 2026? Jun 29 $25 −$9 -34%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Wimbledon WTA: Katerina Siniakova vs Qinwen Zheng BUY Qinwen Zheng 50¢ $5 0m
Wimbledon WTA: Katerina Siniakova vs Qinwen Zheng BUY Qinwen Zheng 50¢ $5 0m
Spread: Japan (-1.5) BUY Brazil 87¢ $5 0m
Wimbledon WTA: Katerina Siniakova vs Qinwen Zheng BUY Qinwen Zheng 46¢ $5 0m
Wimbledon WTA: Magda Linette vs Mirra Andreeva BUY Mirra Andreeva 84¢ $5 1m
Wimbledon ATP: Jesper de Jong vs Rinky Hijikata BUY Rinky Hijikata 74¢ $5 1m
Wimbledon ATP: Jesper de Jong vs Rinky Hijikata BUY Jesper de Jong 27¢ $5 1m
Wimbledon ATP: Jesper de Jong vs Rinky Hijikata BUY Jesper de Jong 27¢ $5 1m
Wimbledon ATP: Jesper de Jong vs Rinky Hijikata BUY Jesper de Jong 27¢ $5 1m
Wimbledon ATP: Jesper de Jong vs Rinky Hijikata BUY Jesper de Jong 27¢ $5 1m
Spread: Japan (-1.5) BUY Japan 20¢ $5 2m
Wimbledon WTA: Magda Linette vs Mirra Andreeva BUY Mirra Andreeva 82¢ $5 6m
Will Mexico vs. Ecuador end in a draw? BUY Yes 34¢ $26 11m
Wimbledon WTA: Solana Sierra vs Anna Bondar BUY Anna Bondar 40¢ $5 14m
Wimbledon WTA: Solana Sierra vs Anna Bondar BUY Anna Bondar 39¢ $5 14m
Wimbledon WTA: Solana Sierra vs Anna Bondar BUY Solana Sierra 59¢ $5 14m
Brazil vs. Japan: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 64¢ $5 14m
Brazil vs. Japan: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 64¢ $5 14m
Will Japan win on 2026-06-29? BUY Yes 21¢ $5 16m
Will Japan win on 2026-06-29? BUY Yes 21¢ $5 16m
Wimbledon WTA: Solana Sierra vs Anna Bondar BUY Anna Bondar 41¢ $5 16m
Wimbledon WTA: Solana Sierra vs Anna Bondar BUY Anna Bondar 41¢ $5 16m
Brazil vs. Japan: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 63¢ $5 17m
Will Brazil vs. Japan end in a draw? BUY No 72¢ $5 17m
Will Brazil vs. Japan end in a draw? BUY No 72¢ $5 17m
Wimbledon WTA: Peyton Stearns vs Nikola Bartunkova BUY Nikola Bartunkova 48¢ $5 17m
Will Japan win on 2026-06-29? BUY No 83¢ $5 19m
Brazil vs. Japan: Team to Advance BUY Brazil 73¢ $5 19m
Brazil vs. Japan: Team to Advance BUY Brazil 73¢ $5 19m
Brazil vs. Japan: Team to Advance BUY Brazil 73¢ $5 19m
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $800.94 · official $790.25 · 172 history records