Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T18:04:36+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

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0D 0x0def…4ddb crypto 1008 markets active 0h ago coverage 39d ⚠
BOTnot copyable crypto specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 39d onlyP/L from Polymarket (history capped)
✗ bot/MM pace (73 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ on-chain reconstruction ≠ official P&L (longshot/capped history)✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$33,550 (-29%) realized −$33,523 · open −$27
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -27% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -44% what you keep after slip
Net edge-44%after slip
Net WR31%break-even
Win rate49%624W / 646L
Whale WR5%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$116per market
Trades / day73.4pace
Fees−$524est.
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$129now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 39d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 72% +$643
sports 28% −$7,020
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (73 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +31%
net ROI/market (all)-34.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 646 -48.2% -53.1% 38% 21% -68.4%
≤30d 1073 -30.5% -37.1% 50% 29% -51.8%
≤90d 1270 -27.0% -34.0% 49% 31% -48.6%
all 1270 -27.0% -34.0% 49% 31% -48.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover73.4 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -34.0% 31% -48.6%
10% ← realistic here -40.3% 24% -53.5%
15% -46.1% 20% -58.0%
20% -51.3% 17% -62.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 2% · top 2 4% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -43% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
33% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -27% · $-wt -43% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 5% (≥$500) big bets weaker
Persistence
early -5% → late -49% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.6 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$48 vs −$167 · ×0.29 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.28 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

39d coverage
Net worth$129
Realized−$33,523
Unrealized−$27
Win rate (resolved)49%
Wins / losses624 / 646
Whale WR (big bets)5%
Est. fees paid−$524
Open positions3
Markets (closed)1270 / 1008
History coverage39d ⚠
Avg bet$116
Trades / day73.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 3 History 1270 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:00PM-2:05PM ET Down 98¢ 100¢ $98 $100 +$2 (+2%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:05PM-2:10PM ET Down 47¢ 48¢ $28 $29 +$1 (+3%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 1:55PM-2:00PM ET Up 46¢ 0¢ $30 $0 −$30 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 497 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 14, 4:25PM-4:30PM ET Jun 17 $788 −$788 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 16, 11:35PM-11:40PM ET Jun 17 $288 −$288 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 15, 7:35PM-7:40PM ET Jun 17 $47 −$47 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 12, 10:15PM-10:20PM ET Jun 17 $297 −$297 -100%
VfB Stuttgart vs. SC Freiburg: O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $1,350 −$1,350 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 6, 11:55PM-12:00AM ET Jun 17 $64 −$64 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 29, 6:05AM-6:10AM ET Jun 17 $400 −$400 -100%
FC Augsburg vs. 1. FC Köln: O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $521 −$521 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 8, 7:55PM-8:00PM ET Jun 17 $135 −$135 -100%
Miami Open: Taylor Townsend vs Jasmine Paolini Jun 17 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 3, 5:15AM-5:20AM ET Jun 17 $51 −$51 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 15, 10:55PM-11:00PM ET Jun 17 $1 −$1 -100%
Daejeon Hana Citizen FC vs. FC Anyang: O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $800 −$800 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 14, 7:05PM-7:10PM ET Jun 17 $788 −$788 -100%
Miami Open: Hailey Baptiste vs Jelena Ostapenko Jun 17 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 11, 4:05PM-4:10PM ET Jun 17 $395 −$395 -100%
Counter-Strike: The QUBE Esports vs Morningstar (BO3) - ESL Challenger Jun 17 $1 −$1 -100%
Counter-Strike: Passion UA vs Tricked (BO3) - BC Game Masters Champion Jun 17 $1 −$1 -100%
Bucaramanga: Luciano Emanuel Ambrogi vs Daniel Salazar Jun 17 $1 −$1 -100%
Counter-Strike: MIBR Academy vs Keyd (BO3) - Aorus League Brazil Onlin Jun 17 $1 −$1 -100%
Santos FC vs. CR Vasco da Gama: O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $265 −$265 -100%
Sabres vs. Kings: O/U 6.5 Jun 17 $1 −$1 -100%
Kigali 2: Marco Trungelliti vs Zdenek Kolar Jun 17 $1 −$1 -100%
Spread: Rockets (-3.5) Jun 17 $470 −$470 -100%
Bruins vs. Canadiens: O/U 6.5 Jun 17 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 15, 6:10PM-6:15PM ET Jun 17 $66 −$66 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 30, 9:10PM-9:15PM ET Jun 17 $81 −$81 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 12, 7:00AM-7:05AM ET Jun 17 $197 −$197 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 6, 11:30PM-11:35PM ET Jun 17 $287 −$287 -100%
KHL: Salavat Yulaev Ufa vs. Neftekhimik Nizhnekamsk Jun 17 $1 −$1 -100%
FC Ryūkyū vs. Kagoshima United FC: O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $300 −$300 -100%
Counter-Strike: Back to Back vs Keyd (BO3) - CCT South America Series Jun 17 $1 −$1 -100%
Dota 2: MOUZ vs GamerLegion (BO2) - ESL One Birmingham Group A Jun 17 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 11, 8:45PM-8:50PM ET Jun 17 $499 −$499 -100%
Spread: Nuggets (-7.5) Jun 17 $750 −$750 -100%
Bucaramanga: Johan Nikles vs Cannon Kingsley Jun 17 $1 −$1 -100%
Trail Blazers vs. 76ers Jun 17 $1 −$1 -100%
Spread: Trail Blazers (-14.5) Jun 17 $1 −$1 -100%
SSC Napoli vs. AC Milan: O/U 1.5 Jun 17 $1,100 −$1,100 -100%
KHL: Traktor vs. Ak Bars Kazan Jun 17 $1 −$1 -100%
Miami Open: Ethan Quinn vs Jiri Lehecka Jun 17 $1 −$1 -100%
High Point Panthers vs. Wisconsin Badgers Jun 17 $1 −$1 -100%
Rockets vs. Bulls Jun 17 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 2, 8:50PM-8:55PM ET Jun 17 $145 −$145 -100%
LoL: KT Rolster Challengers vs DRX Challengers - Game 1 Winner Jun 17 $357 −$357 -100%
Club Necaxa vs. CD Guadalajara: O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $1,100 −$1,100 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 16, 11:10PM-11:15PM ET Jun 17 $48 −$48 -100%
Tennessee Volunteers vs. Vanderbilt Commodores Jun 17 $5 −$5 -100%
Real Oviedo vs. Villarreal CF: O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $555 −$555 -100%
Capitals vs. Utah Jun 17 $1 −$1 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:05PM-2:10PM ET BUY Down 47¢ $29 0m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:00PM-2:05PM ET BUY Down 98¢ $98 3m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 1:55PM-2:00PM ET BUY Up 46¢ $31 9m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 1:50PM-1:55PM ET BUY Up 65¢ $31 13m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 1:45PM-1:50PM ET BUY Down 30¢ $31 17m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 1:40PM-1:45PM ET BUY Up 41¢ $21 23m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 1:35PM-1:40PM ET BUY Down 92¢ $93 24m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 1:35PM-1:40PM ET BUY Down 60¢ $21 27m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 1:30PM-1:35PM ET BUY Down 98¢ $98 29m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 1:30PM-1:35PM ET BUY Down 44¢ $52 33m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 1:25PM-1:30PM ET BUY Down 45¢ $31 39m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 1:20PM-1:25PM ET BUY Up 96¢ $116 39m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 1:20PM-1:25PM ET BUY Up 25¢ $32 43m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 1:15PM-1:20PM ET BUY Up 98¢ $98 45m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 1:15PM-1:20PM ET SELL Up 80¢ $2 46m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 1:15PM-1:20PM ET SELL Up 80¢ $24 46m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 1:15PM-1:20PM ET SELL Up 80¢ $6 46m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 1:15PM-1:20PM ET SELL Up 80¢ $5 46m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 1:15PM-1:20PM ET SELL Up 80¢ $3 46m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 1:15PM-1:20PM ET SELL Up 80¢ $8 46m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 1:15PM-1:20PM ET SELL Up 80¢ $5 46m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 1:15PM-1:20PM ET SELL Up 80¢ $20 46m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 1:15PM-1:20PM ET SELL Up 80¢ $23 46m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 1:15PM-1:20PM ET SELL Up 80¢ $2 46m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 1:15PM-1:20PM ET SELL Up 80¢ $3 46m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 1:15PM-1:20PM ET SELL Up 80¢ $4 46m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 1:15PM-1:20PM ET BUY Up 38¢ $52 49m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 1:10PM-1:15PM ET BUY Down 80¢ $81 50m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 1:10PM-1:15PM ET BUY Down 55¢ $52 51m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 1:05PM-1:10PM ET BUY Up 90¢ $91 57m
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $128.80 · official $128.19 (match) · 3500 history records