Wallet analysis

2026-06-27T20:36:02+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0

score

0D 0x0def…5045 other 27 markets active 1h ago coverage 124d

TRAPdo not copy ⚠ Small sample

✗ negative after realistic slippage! concentrated profit (few bets)

Total PnL +$201 (+3%) realized −$470 · open +$671

Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗

Gross ROI / mkt -24% what the leader earns

→−copy tax

Net edge / mkt -32% what you keep after slip

Net edge-32%after slip

Net WR46%break-even

Win rate54%14W / 12L

Drawdown100%max

Avg bet$276per market

Trades / day0.4pace

Kalshi-fit56%portable

Net worth$1,671now

Equity curve

realized PnL

1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All

2 days−$67

7 days+$705

14 days+$705

30 days+$705

Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net

negative after costs — do not copy

break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even

chance a trade nets +46%

net ROI/market (all)-31.7%

timeframe	markets	gross ROI	NET ROI	gross WR	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
≤7d	2	+21.3%	+9.8%	50%	50%	+43.1%
≤30d	2	+21.3%	+9.8%	50%	50%	+43.1%
≤90d	2	+21.3%	+9.8%	50%	50%	+43.1%
all	26	-24.5%	-31.7%	54%	46%	-17.5%

gross = as the leader traded. net = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip

turnover0.4 tr/day

realistic slip~5%

edge survives to0%

copier slippage	NET ROI	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here	-31.7%	46%	-17.5%
10%	-38.2%	31%	-25.4%
15%	-44.2%	15%	-32.6%
20%	-49.7%	15%	-39.2%

Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a trap: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill

Profit concentration

top 40% · top 2 64% concentrated in a few bets

Edge freshness (90d)

90d ROI +58% too few recent

Fragile wins

14% wins margin < slip solid win margins

Flat-copyable

equal-wt -24% · $-wt -9% works when copied flat

Big bets

big-bet WR —% no data

Persistence

early -21% → late -28% mixed

Add-ons / DCA

1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries

Win / loss size

+$138 vs −$208 · ×0.66 wins small, loses big

Profit factor

×0.77 loses more than it wins

Copy size

≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

124d coverage

Net worth$1,671

Realized−$470

Unrealized+$671

Win rate (resolved)54%

Wins / losses14 / 12

Open positions1

Markets (closed)26 / 27

History coverage124d

Avg bet$276

Trades / day0.4

Drawdown100%

Kalshi-fit56%

Ledger

positions · history · trades

Positions 1 History 26 Trades

Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket

Market	outcome	entry	now	invested	value	unrealized PnL
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	Yes	11¢	18¢	$1,000	$1,671	+$671 (+67%)

Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 11 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.

Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first

Market	when	invested	PnL	ROI
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	Jun 27	$200	−$67	-34%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-24?	Jun 25	$1,013	+$773	+76%
Will Manchester City FC win on 2026-03-04?	Mar 04	$40	−$40	-100%
Will CA Boca Juniors win on 2026-02-28?	Feb 28	$1,321	−$1,321	-100%
Will Real Oviedo vs. Club Atlético de Madrid end in a draw?	Feb 28	$100	−$100	-100%
Will Manchester City FC win on 2026-02-28?	Feb 28	$600	+$113	+19%
Will Wolverhampton Wanderers FC vs. Aston Villa FC end in a draw?	Feb 27	$50	−$50	-100%
Will Aston Villa FC win on 2026-02-27?	Feb 27	$300	−$300	-100%
Will CA River Plate win on 2026-02-26?	Feb 27	$200	+$117	+59%
Tigre 2: Nikolas Sanchez Izquierdo vs Facundo Acosta	Feb 25	$10	−$10	-100%
Set 1 Winner: Dodig vs Skatov	Feb 25	$20	+$1	+4%
Solana Up or Down - February 25, 7:35AM-7:40AM ET	Feb 25	$100	+$25	+24%
Will CA Belgrano win on 2026-02-24?	Feb 25	$300	+$255	+85%
CA Belgrano vs. CA Tucumán: O/U 3.5	Feb 24	$200	−$200	-100%
Club Atlético de Madrid vs. Club Brugge KV: O/U 4.5	Feb 24	$200	−$200	-100%
Dubai Tennis Championships: Alexander Shevchenko vs Karen Khachanov	Feb 24	$500	+$454	+91%
Solana Up or Down - February 23, 8:00PM-8:05PM ET	Feb 24	$5	−$5	-100%
Solana Up or Down - February 23, 7:25PM-7:30PM ET	Feb 24	$100	−$99	-99%
Solana Up or Down - February 23, 6:40PM-6:45PM ET	Feb 23	$100	+$34	+34%
Solana Up or Down - February 23, 6:35PM-6:40PM ET	Feb 23	$100	−$100	-100%
Solana Up or Down - February 23, 6:25PM-6:30PM ET	Feb 23	$100	+$22	+22%
Chile Open: Francisco Comesana vs Pedro Martinez	Feb 23	$157	+$40	+26%
Will Manchester United FC win on 2026-02-23?	Feb 23	$100	+$11	+11%
Will Al Ahli Saudi Club win on 2025-12-19?	Feb 23	$500	+$68	+14%
Will ACF Fiorentina win on 2026-02-23?	Feb 23	$100	+$7	+7%
Solana Up or Down - February 23, 1:25PM-1:30PM ET	Feb 23	$26	+$6	+24%

Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.

Latest trades by this wallet

Market	side	price	size	when
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	SELL Yes	4¢	$133	1h
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-24?	BUY Yes	56¢	$1,013	2d
Will Manchester City FC win on 2026-03-04?	BUY Yes	68¢	$40	115d
Will CA Boca Juniors win on 2026-02-28?	BUY Yes	34¢	$200	118d
Will CA Boca Juniors win on 2026-02-28?	BUY Yes	50¢	$500	118d
Will CA Boca Juniors win on 2026-02-28?	BUY Yes	53¢	$121	118d
Will CA Boca Juniors win on 2026-02-28?	BUY Yes	53¢	$500	118d
Will Real Oviedo vs. Club Atlético de Madrid end in a draw?	BUY Yes	68¢	$100	118d
Will Manchester City FC win on 2026-02-28?	SELL Yes	100¢	$713	119d
Will Manchester City FC win on 2026-02-28?	BUY Yes	84¢	$500	119d
Will Manchester City FC win on 2026-02-28?	BUY Yes	84¢	$100	119d
Will Wolverhampton Wanderers FC vs. Aston Villa FC end in a draw?	BUY Yes	8¢	$50	119d
Will Aston Villa FC win on 2026-02-27?	BUY Yes	13¢	$100	119d
Will Aston Villa FC win on 2026-02-27?	BUY Yes	53¢	$200	120d
Will CA River Plate win on 2026-02-26?	SELL Yes	100¢	$317	120d
Will CA River Plate win on 2026-02-26?	BUY Yes	63¢	$200	121d
Tigre 2: Nikolas Sanchez Izquierdo vs Facundo Acosta	BUY Izquierdo	9¢	$10	122d
Set 1 Winner: Dodig vs Skatov	SELL Dodig	99¢	$20	122d
Set 1 Winner: Dodig vs Skatov	BUY Dodig	95¢	$20	122d
Solana Up or Down - February 25, 7:35AM-7:40AM ET	SELL Down	99¢	$125	122d
Solana Up or Down - February 25, 7:35AM-7:40AM ET	BUY Down	79¢	$100	122d
Will CA Belgrano win on 2026-02-24?	SELL Yes	100¢	$555	122d
CA Belgrano vs. CA Tucumán: O/U 3.5	BUY Under	82¢	$200	123d
Club Atlético de Madrid vs. Club Brugge KV: O/U 4.5	BUY Under	76¢	$200	123d
Dubai Tennis Championships: Alexander Shevchenko vs Karen Khachanov	SELL Khachanov	100¢	$954	123d
Dubai Tennis Championships: Alexander Shevchenko vs Karen Khachanov	BUY Khachanov	42¢	$200	123d
Dubai Tennis Championships: Alexander Shevchenko vs Karen Khachanov	BUY Khachanov	63¢	$300	123d
Solana Up or Down - February 23, 8:00PM-8:05PM ET	BUY Up	1¢	$5	123d
Solana Up or Down - February 23, 7:25PM-7:30PM ET	BUY Down	78¢	$100	123d
Solana Up or Down - February 23, 6:40PM-6:45PM ET	SELL Down	99¢	$134	123d

From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.

≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $1,670.70 · official $1,744.34 · 174 history records