Wallet analysis

2026-06-26T00:19:26+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
0D 0x0dec…3302 other 1075 markets active 1h ago coverage 151d
TRAPdo not copy ⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL −$3,023 (-4%) realized −$2,998 · open −$25
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -11% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -26% what you keep after slip
Net edge-26%after slip
Net WR35%break-even
Win rate36%389W / 685L
Whale WR78%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$67per market
Trades / day9.5pace
Fees−$136est.
Kalshi-fit37%portable
Net worth$6now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$229
7 days−$515
14 days−$356
30 days−$943
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 63% −$2,132
sports 30% −$1,433
crypto 6% +$352
world 1% −$17
politics 0% −$92
economics 0% −$10
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +35%
net ROI/market (all)-19.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 26 -26.5% -33.5% 35% 35% -31.8%
≤30d 122 -10.4% -18.9% 40% 39% -19.9%
≤90d 838 -42.6% -48.0% 23% 22% -40.0%
all 1074 -11.1% -19.6% 36% 35% -13.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover9.5 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -19.6% 35% -13.7%
10% -27.2% 35% -21.9%
15% -34.3% 33% -29.5%
20% -40.7% 30% -36.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 2% · top 2 4% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -34% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
3% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -11% · $-wt -5% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 78% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early -6% → late -16% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$72 vs −$45 · ×1.57 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.89 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

151d coverage
Net worth$6
Realized−$2,998
Unrealized−$25
Win rate (resolved)36%
Wins / losses389 / 685
Whale WR (big bets)78%
Est. fees paid−$136
Open positions1
Markets (closed)1074 / 1075
History coverage151d
Avg bet$67
Trades / day9.5
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit37%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 1074 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-25? Yes 31¢ 6¢ $31 $6 −$25 (-80%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 193 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Germany win on 2026-06-25? Jun 25 $64 −$63 -99%
Athletics vs. San Francisco Giants Jun 25 $100 −$98 -99%
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-24? Jun 25 $24 −$23 -98%
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-24? Jun 25 $101 −$100 -99%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-24? Jun 24 $40 +$60 +152%
Scotland vs. Brazil: Both Teams to Score Jun 24 $43 −$42 -98%
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-23? Jun 24 $70 +$38 +55%
Panama vs. Croatia: Both Teams to Score Jun 23 $28 −$27 -98%
Paris Basketball vs. Monaco Jun 23 $38 +$60 +158%
England vs. Ghana: Both Teams to Score Jun 23 $38 −$37 -98%
Portugal vs. Uzbekistan: Both Teams to Score Jun 23 $39 −$38 -98%
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-22? Jun 23 $75 +$39 +52%
Will Senegal win on 2026-06-22? Jun 22 $33 −$32 -98%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? Jun 22 $142 +$65 +46%
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-21? Jun 22 $89 +$53 +60%
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $198 −$109 -55%
Belgium vs. IR Iran: Both Teams to Score Jun 21 $137 −$137 -100%
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: Both Teams to Score Jun 21 $38 −$37 -98%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $83 +$36 +44%
Tunisia vs. Japan: Both Teams to Score Jun 21 $45 −$44 -98%
Will Málaga CF win on 2026-06-20? Jun 21 $28 +$72 +262%
Netherlands vs. Sweden: Both Teams to Score Jun 20 $191 +$118 +62%
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $249 −$59 -24%
Besiktas vs. Fenerbahce Jun 19 $10 −$10 -98%
Scotland vs. Morocco: Both Teams to Score Jun 19 $102 −$100 -98%
United States vs. Australia: Both Teams to Score Jun 19 $101 −$100 -99%
Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: Both Teams to Score Jun 18 $102 +$103 +101%
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: Both Teams to Score Jun 18 $101 −$100 -99%
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $101 −$100 -99%
Will HUS Agadir win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $30 −$29 -98%
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: Both Teams to Score Jun 18 $64 +$79 +124%
Will Panama win on 2026-06-17? Jun 18 $31 −$30 -98%
Portugal vs. DR Congo: Both Teams to Score Jun 17 $40 +$55 +140%
Austria vs. Jordan: Both Teams to Score Jun 17 $102 +$121 +119%
Iraq vs. Norway: Both Teams to Score Jun 17 $90 +$125 +140%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $199 +$95 +48%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $126 −$125 -99%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: Both Teams to Score Jun 15 $39 −$38 -98%
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $214 +$200 +93%
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: Both Teams to Score Jun 14 $104 −$102 -98%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $100 −$98 -98%
Exact Score: Germany 3 - 0 Curaçao? Jun 14 $14 −$14 -98%
Will São Bernardo FC win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $40 −$39 -98%
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $101 +$53 +52%
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $99 −$98 -99%
Exact Score: Qatar 0 - 3 Switzerland? Jun 13 $13 −$13 -98%
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $100 +$114 +114%
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? Jun 12 $82 −$81 -99%
Korea Republic vs. Czechia: Both Teams to Score Jun 12 $44 +$39 +90%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? Jun 12 $100 +$43 +44%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 31¢ $32 1h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 62¢ $64 7h
Athletics vs. San Francisco Giants BUY Athletics 53¢ $100 21h
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 21¢ $24 24h
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 58¢ $101 24h
Scotland vs. Brazil: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 42¢ $43 27h
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 39¢ $40 31h
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-23? BUY Yes 64¢ $70 47h
Panama vs. Croatia: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 27¢ $28 2d
Paris Basketball vs. Monaco BUY Monaco 38¢ $38 2d
England vs. Ghana: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 41¢ $38 2d
Portugal vs. Uzbekistan: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 38¢ $39 2d
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 65¢ $75 2d
Will Senegal win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 32¢ $33 3d
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 68¢ $142 3d
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 62¢ $89 4d
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-21? SELL Yes 33¢ $89 4d
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 71¢ $198 4d
Belgium vs. IR Iran: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 49¢ $137 4d
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 37¢ $38 4d
Tunisia vs. Japan: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 44¢ $45 4d
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 69¢ $83 4d
Will Málaga CF win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 27¢ $28 5d
Netherlands vs. Sweden: Both Teams to Score SELL Yes 100¢ $309 5d
Netherlands vs. Sweden: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 61¢ $191 5d
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-19? SELL Yes 38¢ $191 5d
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 48¢ $249 5d
Besiktas vs. Fenerbahce BUY Besiktas 29¢ $10 6d
Scotland vs. Morocco: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 45¢ $102 6d
United States vs. Australia: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 53¢ $101 6d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $6.18 · official $6.18 (match) · 2054 history records