Wallet analysis

2026-06-25T01:03:33+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
0D 0x0deb…f76e other 15 markets active 1h ago coverage 10d
TRAPdo not copy ⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL −$1 (-0%) realized −$1 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -21% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -31% what you keep after slip
Net edge-31%after slip
Net WR13%break-even
Win rate33%5W / 10L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$47per market
Trades / day6.4pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit13%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$17
7 days+$6
14 days−$20
30 days−$20
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 81% −$11
sports 19% −$9
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +13%
net ROI/market (all)-28.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 10 -13.3% -21.6% 50% 20% -7.8%
≤30d 15 -20.6% -28.1% 33% 13% -12.9%
≤90d 15 -20.6% -28.1% 33% 13% -12.9%
all 15 -20.6% -28.1% 33% 13% -12.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover6.4 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -28.1% 13% -12.9%
10% -35.0% 13% -21.3%
15% -41.3% 13% -28.9%
20% -47.1% 0% -35.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 74% · top 2 85% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -4% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
60% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -21% · $-wt -4% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -28% → late -14% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.7 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$6 vs −$5 · ×1.2 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.6 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

10d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$1
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)33%
Wins / losses5 / 10
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions0
Markets (closed)15 / 15
History coverage10d
Avg bet$47
Trades / day6.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit13%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 15 Trades
no open positions (4 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Morocco vs. Haiti: O/U 5.5 Jun 24 $85 −$10 -12%
Scotland vs. Brazil: O/U 2.5 Jun 24 $50 +$1 +2%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-24? Jun 24 $25 −$1 -2%
Morocco leading at halftime? Jun 24 $24 +$1 +4%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-24? Jun 24 $51 +$22 +43%
Exact Score: Any Other Score? Jun 23 $73 +$3 +5%
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-21? Jun 22 $104 +$3 +2%
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $50 −$2 -4%
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $50 −$9 -18%
Will Norway win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $5 −$2 -44%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $34 −$5 -14%
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $100 −$12 -12%
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $50 −$3 -5%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Morocco vs. Haiti: O/U 5.5 BUY Under 22¢ $5 1h
Morocco vs. Haiti: O/U 5.5 BUY Under 19¢ $0 1h
Morocco vs. Haiti: O/U 5.5 BUY Under 19¢ $5 1h
Morocco vs. Haiti: O/U 5.5 SELL Over 85¢ $68 1h
Morocco vs. Haiti: O/U 5.5 BUY Over 93¢ $25 1h
Morocco vs. Haiti: O/U 5.5 BUY Over 93¢ $25 1h
Morocco vs. Haiti: O/U 5.5 BUY Over 93¢ $25 1h
Scotland vs. Brazil: O/U 2.5 SELL Over 99¢ $51 1h
Scotland vs. Brazil: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 97¢ $25 1h
Scotland vs. Brazil: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 97¢ $25 1h
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-24? SELL Yes 65¢ $25 1h
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 65¢ $25 1h
Morocco leading at halftime? SELL No 100¢ $25 2h
Morocco leading at halftime? BUY No 96¢ $24 2h
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-24? SELL No 8¢ $73 2h
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-24? BUY No 5¢ $13 2h
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-24? BUY No 5¢ $0 2h
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-24? BUY No 5¢ $12 2h
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-24? BUY No 6¢ $26 2h
Exact Score: Any Other Score? SELL No 73¢ $27 47h
Exact Score: Any Other Score? BUY No 68¢ $25 47h
Exact Score: Any Other Score? SELL No 62¢ $32 47h
Exact Score: Any Other Score? SELL No 69¢ $18 47h
Exact Score: Any Other Score? BUY No 61¢ $23 47h
Exact Score: Any Other Score? BUY No 62¢ $9 47h
Exact Score: Any Other Score? BUY No 62¢ $16 47h
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 7¢ $3 3d
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 20¢ $4 3d
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 5¢ $2 3d
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-21? SELL No 32¢ $19 3d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 64 history records