Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T07:01:32+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

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score
0D 0x0de9…3d1f weather 354 markets active 2d ago coverage 135d ⚠
TRAPdo not copy weather specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 134d only
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL +$1,106 (+4%) realized +$1,107 · open −$1
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +9% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -16% what you keep after slip
Net edge-16%after slip
Net WR31%break-even
Win rate59%208W / 142L
Whale WR100%big bets
Drawdown61%max
Avg bet$78per market
Trades / day24.2pace
Fees−$15est.
Kalshi-fit82%portable
Net worth$122now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$135
7 days−$575
14 days−$375
30 days−$298
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
weather 63% +$1,945
other 22% −$387
sports 13% −$242
world 2% −$191
politics 0% +$11
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +31%
net ROI/market (all)-1.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 25 -34.9% -41.1% 48% 24% -27.8%
≤30d 62 -5.0% -14.0% 63% 34% -15.0%
≤90d 239 -12.5% -20.9% 58% 29% -14.3%
all 350 +9.3% -1.1% 59% 31% -6.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover24.2 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -1.1% 31% -6.1%
10% ← realistic here -10.6% 21% -15.1%
15% -19.2% 16% -23.3%
20% -27.1% 14% -30.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 7% · top 2 12% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -6% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
46% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +9% · $-wt +4% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 100% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early +35% → late -16% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
7.5 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$27 vs −$31 · ×0.86 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.26 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

135d coverage
Net worth$122
Realized+$1,107
Unrealized−$1
Win rate (resolved)59%
Wins / losses208 / 142
Whale WR (big bets)100%
Est. fees paid−$15
Open positions4
Markets (closed)350 / 354
History coverage135d ⚠
Avg bet$78
Trades / day24.2
Drawdown61%
Kalshi-fit82%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 4 History 350 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Germany win Group E in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 70¢ 72¢ $49 $51 +$2 (+4%)
Will Spain win Group H in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 79¢ 72¢ $47 $44 −$4 (-8%)
Will Spain be eliminated in the Round of 32 of the World Cup? No 81¢ 78¢ $21 $20 −$1 (-4%)
Will France win Group I in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 65¢ 78¢ $6 $8 +$1 (+21%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 31 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Spread: Spain (-1.5) Jun 15 $156 −$77 -50%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 2.5 Jun 15 $89 −$58 -65%
Exact Score: Qatar 0 - 1 Switzerland? Jun 13 $29 −$29 -100%
Exact Score: Qatar 0 - 2 Switzerland? Jun 13 $20 −$20 -100%
Qatar vs. Switzerland: Both Teams to Score Jun 13 $75 −$75 -100%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $350 −$349 -100%
Spread: United States (-1.5) Jun 13 $293 +$27 +9%
United States vs. Paraguay: Both Teams to Score in First Half Jun 13 $67 +$7 +10%
Spread: United States (-2.5) Jun 13 $82 −$59 -72%
United States vs. Paraguay: O/U 3.5 Jun 13 $48 −$32 -68%
Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 2.5 Jun 12 $175 +$27 +15%
Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 3.5 Jun 12 $255 +$31 +12%
Canada vs. Bosnia-Herzegovina: 1st Half O/U 2.5 Jun 12 $97 +$4 +4%
Will the highest temperature in London be 15°C on June 11? Jun 11 $17 +$3 +19%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? Jun 11 $178 +$22 +12%
Spread: Mexico (-1.5) Jun 11 $295 +$17 +6%
Mexico vs. South Africa: Both Teams to Score in First Half Jun 11 $237 +$15 +6%
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 33°C on June 11? Jun 11 $35 −$35 -99%
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 34°C on June 11? Jun 11 $29 −$28 -99%
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 35°C on June 11? Jun 11 $3 −$3 -100%
Will the highest temperature in London be 17°C on June 9? Jun 11 $18 +$1 +6%
Will the highest temperature in London be 18°C on June 9? Jun 11 $25 +$17 +68%
Will the highest temperature in London be 17°C on June 10? Jun 11 $64 −$3 -5%
Will the highest temperature in London be 16°C on June 10? Jun 11 $195 +$36 +18%
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 32°C on June 11? Jun 10 $13 −$13 -100%
Will the highest temperature in London be 19°C on June 8? Jun 09 $29 +$1 +3%
Will the highest temperature in London be 18°C on June 8? Jun 09 $155 +$18 +11%
Will the highest temperature in London be 16°C on June 8? Jun 09 $182 +$15 +8%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 23°C on June 7? Jun 08 $6 +$14 +223%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 23°C on June 8? Jun 08 $0 $0 -54%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 22°C on June 8? Jun 08 $15 −$4 -28%
Will the highest temperature in London be 16°C on June 6? Jun 07 $36 +$12 +33%
Will the highest temperature in London be 21°C on June 7? Jun 06 $23 −$7 -32%
Will the highest temperature in London be 22°C on June 7? Jun 06 $4 −$4 -100%
Will the highest temperature in London be 18°C on June 4? Jun 06 $13 +$14 +107%
Will the highest temperature in London be 19°C on June 5? Jun 06 $18 +$22 +127%
Will the highest temperature in London be 16°C on June 4? Jun 06 $62 +$3 +5%
Will the highest temperature in London be 17°C on June 4? Jun 06 $85 +$22 +25%
Will the highest temperature in London be 19°C on June 4? Jun 06 $34 +$84 +248%
Will the highest temperature in London be 18°C on June 5? Jun 04 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the highest temperature in London be 20°C on June 4? Jun 04 $10 −$1 -7%
Will the highest temperature in London be 17°C on June 3? Jun 04 $9 +$1 +15%
Will the highest temperature in London be 20°C on June 3? Jun 04 $160 +$17 +10%
Will the highest temperature in London be 22°C on June 4? Jun 03 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the highest temperature in London be 19°C on June 3? Jun 03 $40 −$21 -52%
Will the highest temperature in London be 20°C on June 2? Jun 03 $46 +$4 +9%
Will the highest temperature in London be 21°C on June 2? Jun 03 $38 +$12 +30%
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026? Jun 02 $17 +$2 +14%
Will PSG win the 2025–26 Champions League? Jun 02 $11 +$9 +84%
Will the highest temperature in London be 23°C on May 27? May 28 $52 +$8 +16%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Spread: Spain (-1.5) SELL Spain 35¢ $17 37h
Spread: Spain (-1.5) SELL Spain 41¢ $20 37h
Spread: Spain (-1.5) SELL Spain 41¢ $20 37h
Spread: Spain (-1.5) SELL Spain 42¢ $21 37h
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 2.5 SELL Over 28¢ $32 37h
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 77¢ $89 39h
Spread: Spain (-1.5) BUY Spain 78¢ $156 39h
Will Spain be eliminated in the Round of 32 of the World Cup? BUY No 81¢ $10 39h
Will Spain win Group H in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 78¢ $16 2d
Will Spain be eliminated in the Round of 32 of the World Cup? BUY No 81¢ $4 2d
Will Spain be eliminated in the Round of 32 of the World Cup? BUY No 81¢ $6 2d
Will Germany win Group E in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 70¢ $21 2d
Will Germany win Group E in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 69¢ $14 2d
Will Germany win Group E in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 70¢ $10 2d
Will Germany win Group E in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 70¢ $4 2d
Will Spain win Group H in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 79¢ $16 2d
Will France win Group I in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 65¢ $6 2d
Exact Score: Qatar 0 - 1 Switzerland? BUY Yes 47¢ $5 3d
Exact Score: Qatar 0 - 1 Switzerland? BUY Yes 45¢ $4 3d
Exact Score: Qatar 0 - 2 Switzerland? BUY Yes 33¢ $3 3d
Exact Score: Qatar 0 - 2 Switzerland? BUY Yes 34¢ $3 3d
Exact Score: Qatar 0 - 2 Switzerland? BUY Yes 33¢ $7 3d
Exact Score: Qatar 0 - 2 Switzerland? BUY Yes 33¢ $3 3d
Exact Score: Qatar 0 - 1 Switzerland? BUY Yes 40¢ $10 3d
Exact Score: Qatar 0 - 1 Switzerland? BUY Yes 40¢ $2 3d
Exact Score: Qatar 0 - 1 Switzerland? BUY Yes 38¢ $4 3d
Exact Score: Qatar 0 - 2 Switzerland? BUY Yes 35¢ $0 3d
Exact Score: Qatar 0 - 2 Switzerland? BUY Yes 35¢ $3 3d
Exact Score: Qatar 0 - 1 Switzerland? BUY Yes 37¢ $4 3d
Exact Score: Qatar 0 - 1 Switzerland? BUY Yes 37¢ $0 3d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $122.13 · official $122.13 (match) · 3500 history records