Wallet analysis

2026-06-28T03:03:34+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
0D 0x0de8…3d1c sports 13 markets active 2h ago coverage 1d
UNRELIABLEdata unreliable sports specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample
✗ only 1d of captured history — unreliable✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL −$114 (-6%) realized −$114 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -32% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -47% what you keep after slip
Net edge-47%after slip
Net WR31%break-even
Win rate38%5W / 8L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$149per market
Trades / day29.0pace
Fees−$8est.
Kalshi-fit54%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 1d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
other 67% −$182
sports 33% −$114
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +31%
net ROI/market (all)-38.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 13 -31.6% -38.1% 38% 31% -23.3%
≤30d 13 -31.6% -38.1% 38% 31% -23.3%
≤90d 13 -31.6% -38.1% 38% 31% -23.3%
all 13 -31.6% -38.1% 38% 31% -23.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover29.0 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -38.1% 31% -23.3%
10% ← realistic here -44.0% 15% -30.7%
15% -49.5% 8% -37.4%
20% -54.4% 8% -43.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 59% · top 2 77% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -15% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
20% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -32% · $-wt -15% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -55% → late -11% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$35 vs −$59 · ×0.59 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.37 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

1d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$114
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)38%
Wins / losses5 / 8
Est. fees paid−$8
Open positions0
Markets (closed)13 / 13
History coverage1d
Avg bet$149
Trades / day29.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit54%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 13 Trades
no open positions (2 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will DR Congo win on 2026-06-27? Jun 28 $598 +$102 +17%
DR Congo vs. Uzbekistan: O/U 6.5 Total Corners Jun 28 $151 −$58 -38%
DR Congo vs. Uzbekistan: O/U 7.5 Total Corners Jun 28 $124 −$67 -54%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-27? Jun 28 $507 −$99 -20%
Colombia vs. Portugal: O/U 7.5 Total Corners Jun 28 $101 −$61 -61%
Croatia vs. Ghana: O/U 9.5 Total Corners Jun 27 $61 +$32 +52%
Croatia vs. Ghana: O/U 3.5 Jun 27 $62 +$15 +24%
Croatia vs. Ghana: O/U 11.5 Total Corners Jun 27 $22 $0 +2%
Exact Score: Croatia 2 - 0 Ghana? Jun 27 $26 −$25 -99%
Exact Score: Croatia 1 - 1 Ghana? Jun 27 $127 −$125 -98%
Exact Score: Croatia 1 - 0 Ghana? Jun 27 $26 −$14 -56%
Panama vs. England: 1st Half O/U 0.5 Jun 27 $115 +$25 +22%
Exact Score: Panama 0 - 0 England? Jun 27 $21 −$20 -97%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will DR Congo win on 2026-06-27? SELL Yes 100¢ $700 1h
Will DR Congo win on 2026-06-27? BUY Yes 88¢ $419 1h
DR Congo vs. Uzbekistan: O/U 6.5 Total Corners SELL Over 48¢ $93 1h
Will DR Congo win on 2026-06-27? BUY Yes 79¢ $101 1h
Will DR Congo win on 2026-06-27? BUY Yes 79¢ $79 1h
DR Congo vs. Uzbekistan: O/U 7.5 Total Corners SELL Over 30¢ $57 1h
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-27? SELL Yes 44¢ $408 2h
Colombia vs. Portugal: O/U 7.5 Total Corners SELL Over 28¢ $40 2h
DR Congo vs. Uzbekistan: O/U 7.5 Total Corners BUY Over 63¢ $124 3h
DR Congo vs. Uzbekistan: O/U 6.5 Total Corners BUY Over 76¢ $151 3h
Croatia vs. Ghana: O/U 9.5 Total Corners SELL Under 100¢ $92 4h
Croatia vs. Ghana: O/U 3.5 SELL Under 100¢ $77 4h
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-27? BUY Yes 53¢ $507 4h
Croatia vs. Ghana: O/U 11.5 Total Corners SELL Under 100¢ $23 4h
Colombia vs. Portugal: O/U 7.5 Total Corners BUY Over 69¢ $101 4h
Exact Score: Croatia 2 - 0 Ghana? SELL Yes 0¢ $0 4h
Exact Score: Croatia 1 - 1 Ghana? BUY Yes 49¢ $102 4h
Exact Score: Croatia 1 - 0 Ghana? SELL Yes 7¢ $8 4h
Exact Score: Croatia 1 - 0 Ghana? SELL Yes 10¢ $3 4h
Croatia vs. Ghana: O/U 11.5 Total Corners BUY Under 98¢ $22 5h
Panama vs. England: 1st Half O/U 0.5 SELL Under 100¢ $140 5h
Panama vs. England: 1st Half O/U 0.5 BUY Under 97¢ $100 5h
Panama vs. England: 1st Half O/U 0.5 BUY Under 40¢ $15 5h
Exact Score: Panama 0 - 0 England? BUY Yes 3¢ $21 6h
Croatia vs. Ghana: O/U 3.5 BUY Under 80¢ $62 6h
Croatia vs. Ghana: O/U 9.5 Total Corners BUY Under 65¢ $61 6h
Exact Score: Croatia 1 - 0 Ghana? BUY Yes 16¢ $26 6h
Exact Score: Croatia 1 - 1 Ghana? BUY Yes 15¢ $26 6h
Exact Score: Croatia 2 - 0 Ghana? BUY Yes 12¢ $26 6h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 29 history records