Wallet analysis

2026-06-23T04:53:18+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
0D 0x0de5…fe91 other 41 markets active 2h ago coverage 136d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$113 (+7%) realized +$153 · open −$40
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -5% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -14% what you keep after slip
Net edge-14%after slip
Net WR61%break-even
Win rate61%22W / 14L
Drawdown54%max
Avg bet$41per market
Trades / day0.4pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit27%portable
Net worth$220now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$34
7 days+$30
14 days+$23
30 days+$23
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 47% +$92
tech 25% −$89
crypto 14% +$38
politics 6% +$11
world 5% +$38
culture 2% +$9
sports 1% −$11
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +61%
net ROI/market (all)-13.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 17 -3.4% -12.6% 59% 59% -1.2%
≤30d 27 -10.9% -19.4% 52% 52% -5.2%
≤90d 31 -8.9% -17.6% 55% 55% -6.3%
all 36 -4.7% -13.8% 61% 61% -1.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.4 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -13.8% 61% -1.3%
10% -22.1% 47% -10.7%
15% -29.6% 39% -19.4%
20% -36.5% 22% -27.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 11% · top 2 20% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +4% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -5% · $-wt +9% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -11% → late +1% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$16 vs −$16 · ×0.99 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.56 per $1 lost it wins $1.56
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

136d coverage
Net worth$220
Realized+$153
Unrealized−$40
Win rate (resolved)61%
Wins / losses22 / 14
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions5
Markets (closed)36 / 41
History coverage136d
Avg bet$41
Trades / day0.4
Drawdown54%
Kalshi-fit27%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 5 History 36 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Germany win on 2026-06-25? Yes 51¢ 52¢ $80 $81 +$1 (+1%)
Will GPT-6 be released by September 30, 2026? Yes 81¢ 44¢ $100 $55 −$45 (-45%)
Will Japan win on 2026-06-25? Yes 50¢ 52¢ $30 $31 +$1 (+3%)
Will France win on 2026-06-26? Yes 58¢ 57¢ $30 $30 −$0 (-1%)
Will United States win on 2026-06-25? Yes 42¢ 50¢ $20 $24 +$4 (+20%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Norway win on 2026-06-22? Jun 23 $11 +$13 +125%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21? Jun 22 $10 −$10 -100%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? Jun 22 $42 +$21 +50%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $21 +$10 +49%
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-19? Jun 21 $11 −$11 -100%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? Jun 21 $21 +$10 +46%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20? Jun 21 $21 +$13 +64%
Will Mexico vs. Korea Republic end in a draw? Jun 20 $11 −$11 -100%
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-18? Jun 20 $11 −$11 -100%
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $21 +$11 +53%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? Jun 18 $21 −$21 -100%
Will England win on 2026-06-17? Jun 18 $11 +$7 +67%
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-17? Jun 18 $11 +$13 +120%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $31 +$8 +26%
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? Jun 17 $21 −$21 -100%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? Jun 17 $11 −$11 -100%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $42 +$18 +42%
Will Qatar win on 2026-06-13? Jun 15 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $11 −$11 -100%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $11 −$11 -100%
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $11 −$11 -100%
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $11 +$9 +82%
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $21 −$21 -100%
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2.2T? Jun 13 $21 −$21 -100%
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $37 +$33 +90%
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? Jun 12 $11 +$16 +155%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? Jun 12 $31 +$11 +36%
Will Liam rank #1 among boy names on the SSA’s official list for 2025? May 18 $100 +$15 +15%
Will GPT-6 be released by June 30, 2026? Apr 27 $100 −$56 -56%
US x Iran ceasefire by June 30? Apr 08 $80 +$38 +47%
Will Tô Lâm be the next President of Vietnam? Apr 06 $100 +$11 +11%
Kraken IPO by December 31, 2026? Mar 12 $70 +$13 +18%
Will Bitcoin reach $75,000 in February? Feb 28 $200 +$35 +17%
Will "Tyler Perry's Joe's College Road Trip" be the top global Netflix Feb 25 $38 +$9 +24%
Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of February 2026? Feb 20 $204 +$34 +17%
Will Norway win the most medals in the 2026 Winter Olympics? Feb 16 $19 +$6 +30%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Japan win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 52¢ $21 1h
Will France win on 2026-06-26? BUY Yes 58¢ $32 1h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 51¢ $53 19h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 51¢ $21 37h
Will Japan win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 47¢ $11 47h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 50¢ $11 47h
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 47¢ $11 3d
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 68¢ $10 3d
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 64¢ $21 3d
Will United States win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 42¢ $21 3d
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 65¢ $21 3d
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 58¢ $21 3d
Will Mexico vs. Korea Republic end in a draw? BUY Yes 29¢ $11 5d
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 63¢ $21 5d
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 77¢ $21 5d
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 25¢ $11 5d
Will Norway win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 42¢ $11 5d
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 64¢ $21 5d
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 83¢ $21 6d
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 43¢ $11 6d
Will England win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 57¢ $11 6d
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 64¢ $11 6d
Will France win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 67¢ $21 7d
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 67¢ $21 7d
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 62¢ $21 8d
Will France win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 67¢ $21 8d
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 61¢ $11 8d
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 52¢ $11 8d
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 39¢ $11 9d
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 58¢ $11 9d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $220.17 · official $220.17 (match) · 86 history records