Wallet analysis

2026-06-21T23:33:31+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.5
score
0D 0x0de4…ca4c politics 133 markets active 1h ago coverage 116d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL −$108 (-0%) realized −$108 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -5% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -14% what you keep after slip
Net edge-14%after slip
Net WR4%break-even
Win rate5%7W / 125L
Whale WR0%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$224per market
Trades / day2.9pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit65%portable
Net worth$33now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$1
7 days−$1
14 days−$2
30 days−$3
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 51% −$16
politics 37% −$14
sports 5% −$80
tech 4% −$1
world 1% $0
crypto 1% $0
economics 1% $0
culture 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +4%
net ROI/market (all)-13.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 6 -0.1% -9.6% 0% 0% -9.6%
≤30d 16 -0.1% -9.7% 0% 0% -9.6%
≤90d 120 -2.8% -12.1% 4% 3% -9.8%
all 132 -4.6% -13.7% 5% 4% -9.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.9 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -13.7% 4% -9.9%
10% -21.9% 4% -18.5%
15% -29.5% 2% -26.4%
20% -36.4% 2% -33.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 40% · top 2 59% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
29% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -5% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 0% (≥$500) big bets weaker
Persistence
early -9% → late -0% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$9 vs −$1 · ×6.61 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.37 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

116d coverage
Net worth$33
Realized−$108
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)5%
Wins / losses7 / 125
Whale WR (big bets)0%
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions1
Markets (closed)132 / 133
History coverage116d
Avg bet$224
Trades / day2.9
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit65%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 132 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Eric Trump win the 2028 US Presidential Election? No 99¢ 99¢ $33 $33 −$0 (-0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 11 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Élisabeth Borne win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 21 $208 $0 -0%
Will Canada win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 21 $25 $0 -0%
Will Scream 7 be the top grossing movie of 2026? Jun 21 $54 $0 -0%
Will Australia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 19 $235 $0 -0%
Will the Tennessee Titans win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 19 $224 $0 -0%
Will Nicole Shanahan win the California Governor Election in 2026? Jun 19 $25 $0 -0%
Will Dinorah Figuera be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? Jun 14 $38 $0 -0%
Will 10 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Jun 11 $19 $0 -0%
Will Wes Moore win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 11 $35 $0 -0%
Will DeepSeek have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? Jun 09 $59 $0 -0%
Will Esteban Ocon be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 08 $529 −$1 -0%
Will Tim Walz win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 01 $19 $0 -0%
Will Tom Brady win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 01 $31 $0 -0%
Will Elise Stefanik win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 30 $313 $0 -0%
Will Tulsi Gabbard win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 26 $453 −$1 -0%
Will Joe Kent win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 24 $351 −$1 -0%
Will Sweden win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 22 $336 $0 -0%
Will Jamie Dimon win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 22 $386 −$1 -0%
Will Eric Trump win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 20 $221 $0 -0%
Will South Korea win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 19 $174 $0 -0%
Will Roy Cooper win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 18 $200 $0 -0%
Will Park Yong-jin win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election May 17 $173 $0 -0%
Will Tarcisio de Freitas win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? May 17 $188 $0 -0%
Will Ted Cruz win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 16 $171 $0 -0%
Will Andrew Yang win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 15 $198 $0 -0%
Will Rick Caruso win the California Governor Election in 2026? May 13 $190 $0 -0%
Will MrBeast win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 13 $574 −$1 -0%
Will Moonshot have the best AI model at the end of May 2026? May 12 $165 $0 -0%
Will Dwayne 'The Rock' Johnson win the 2028 Democratic presidential no May 12 $219 $0 -0%
Will Fernando Alonso be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 11 $225 $0 -0%
Will Qatar win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 11 $184 $0 -0%
Will Jordan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 10 $824 −$1 -0%
Will Carole Delga win the 2027 French presidential election? May 07 $168 $0 -0%
Will Juan Daniel Oviedo win the 2026 Colombian presidential election? May 06 $443 $0 -0%
Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 05 $200 $0 -0%
Will the US confirm that aliens exist by April 30? May 05 $30 $0 +0%
Will Gérald Darmanin win the 2027 French presidential election? May 04 $158 $0 -0%
Will Michel Barnier win the 2027 French presidential election? May 04 $141 $0 -0%
Will Thomas Massie win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 04 $174 $0 -0%
Will Ecuador win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 03 $173 $0 -0%
Will Butch Ware win the California Governor Election in 2026? May 03 $169 $0 -0%
Will Eduardo Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? May 03 $153 $0 -0%
Will Frances Tiafoe win the 2026 Men's French Open? May 02 $178 $0 -0%
Will Isack Hadjar be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 01 $339 $0 -0%
Will Carlos Roberto Massa Júnior win the 2026 Brazilian presidential e May 01 $148 $0 -0%
Will Valérie Pécresse win the 2027 French presidential election? May 01 $353 $0 -0%
Will Laurent Wauquiez win the 2027 French presidential election? Apr 30 $152 $0 -0%
Will Michelle Obama win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Apr 27 $231 $0 -0%
Will the Chicago White Sox win the 2026 World Series? Apr 27 $215 $0 -0%
Will Switzerland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 26 $210 $0 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Eric Trump win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $33 1h
Will Élisabeth Borne win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $38 1h
Will Élisabeth Borne win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $38 6h
Will Canada win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $25 6h
Will Canada win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $25 12h
Will Scream 7 be the top grossing movie of 2026? SELL No 100¢ $22 23h
Will Scream 7 be the top grossing movie of 2026? BUY No 100¢ $22 24h
Will Australia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $36 47h
Will Australia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $36 2d
Will the Tennessee Titans win the 2027 NFL league championship? SELL No 99¢ $22 2d
Will the Tennessee Titans win the 2027 NFL league championship? BUY No 99¢ $22 2d
Will Nicole Shanahan win the California Governor Election in 2026? SELL No 100¢ $25 2d
Will Nicole Shanahan win the California Governor Election in 2026? BUY No 100¢ $25 2d
Will Dinorah Figuera be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? SELL No 100¢ $38 7d
Will Dinorah Figuera be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? BUY No 100¢ $38 7d
Will Scream 7 be the top grossing movie of 2026? SELL No 99¢ $32 7d
Will Scream 7 be the top grossing movie of 2026? BUY No 100¢ $32 8d
Will 10 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? SELL No 100¢ $19 10d
Will 10 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? BUY No 100¢ $19 10d
Will Wes Moore win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $35 10d
Will Wes Moore win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $35 11d
Will DeepSeek have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? SELL No 100¢ $36 12d
Will DeepSeek have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? BUY No 100¢ $36 13d
Will Esteban Ocon be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $23 13d
Will Esteban Ocon be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $23 14d
Will DeepSeek have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? SELL No 100¢ $23 14d
Will DeepSeek have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? BUY No 100¢ $23 15d
Will Tim Walz win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $19 20d
Will Tim Walz win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $19 20d
Will Tom Brady win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $31 20d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $32.98 · official $32.98 (match) · 414 history records